What's New

Will Abe succeed in recovering Japan's lost decades and national pride?

So far seems so good for the now exuberant Japanese Prime Minister Abe. The Japanese stock market is ebullient. The economy seems to be picking up. His popularity rating at over 70% is quite unprecedented. He is well set to capture the upper house of the Diet in July. If all goes well, he is likely to proceed with revising Japan's post-war Constitution to enable Japan to rearm as a "normal" nation. Recovery of Japan's lost decades and its national pride does not seem far in the horizon.

The leader in The Economist (Abe's Master Plan, 18 May, 2013) gives a guarded assessment. For serious questions remain whether Abe’s unconventional strategies are sustainable even in the medium term -

(a) An ever-weakening yen for an economy of the size of Japan is bound to put pressure on its trading partners worldwide, risking competitive devaluations if not a full-blown currency war. China is already feeling the heat along with some of Japan's Asian neighbors, such as Thailand. While America may welcome a much weaker yen for now so as to divert attention from the dollar Click here, there may come a time when American exports would begin to suffer if the yen goes through the floor. History of the 1985 Plaza Accord comes to mind, which resulted in decades of yen appreciation.

(b) Japan has built the world's highest national gross debt reaching 240% of GDP. Debt servicing already accounts for a quarter of the budget. It begs the question how far money-printing alone could serve to revive an economy with the world's highest proportion (23.3%) of the elderly (65 years and over). In any event, the growing debt mountain is becoming a tickling time-bomb, according to a recent article in Spiegel Online (Anne Seith, January 3, 2013).

(c) Abe signals liberalization of agriculture and other key sectors such as electricity by agreeing to sign for American Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Yet these sectors are full of vested interests and political behemoths which have all along been the bedrock of his Liberal Democratic Party. Whether he can muster enough newly-won political capital to ram through meaningful reforms is moot. His other proposed economic measure to increase VAT is likewise not set for easy passage, if past experience of his predecessors is any guide.

(d) Perhaps most important of all are Abe's right-wing political leanings and his nationalistic history-revisionism. His grandfather was instrumental in managing a puppet regime in Manchuria during the last days of the Qing Dynasty. Abe himself doesn't admit that Japan was an aggressor in the Second World War. He connived at, if not quietly encouraged, his senior deputies' paying homage to the Yakasuni Shrine housing Japanese war-dead along with Class A War Criminals. His government has rejected the existence of forced "Comfort Women" during the war, the bulk coming from China, South Korea and other Asian countries. These and other war atrocities still remain deep scars in the national psyches of many Asian countries, especially China and South Korea. It is difficult to see how Abe's rejectionism and Japan's eventual rearmament would help exports to these huge markets.

(e) While America may welcome if not encourage Japan's eventual rearmament so as to reduce its military burden in the Asia Pacific, it is unlikely to be willing to see an exacerbation and complication of the already-tense situation in the East and South China Sea. Owing to the U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty, any untoward action by Japan is likely to drag America into a catastrophic regional if not global war. 

In any event, a more buoyant Japanese economy would be welcomed by China, now Japan's largest trading partner. However, if Japan revises its Constitution to rearm, coupled with its rejectionist postures, this would stir up a tidal wave of anti-Japanese backlash, most of all in China and South Korea. What is more, this could lead to an unwelcome arms race, which would be bad news for peace and stability in an already geopolitically-tense Asia Pacific region.

Military and Security Developments involving the PRC 2013 - Annual Report to Congress

The U.S. Department of Defense has released its 2013 Annual Report to Congress on the state and development of China's military. The comprehensive report highlights that China has dramatically improved a wide-range of military capabilities including Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/D2), C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance), survivable long-range nuclear deterrence, nuclear submarines, guided missiles, steath fighters, complex-environment information-warfare (IW), cyber warfare, space warfare, and civil-military integration.

A further indepth assessment of China's military fortes is attempted by Professor Andrew Erickson of the Naval Defense College, highlighting China's nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs) and nuclear attack submarines, the world's only long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) with a range over 1,500 km，and development of multiple aircrat carriers with distant ""access points" in the form of agreements for refueling, replenishment, crew rest, and low-level maintenance possibly in the Malacca, Lombok and Sunda Straits, together with world-class shipbuilding and nanotechnology capabilities.

The DoD Report nevertheless notes that China's military is primarily defensive, in particular over Taiwan and its other terrritorial claims in the East and South China Sea, as well as guarding its vital Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC). The latter, however, necessitates the expansion of China's blue water navy and its longer-range military projection, supported by the development of longer-range tranport planes.

The Report highlights the efforts of China's military to provide commong goods such as anti-priracy, UN peace-keeping operations, and confidence-builidng joint miliary exchanges and exercies, includng the United States and other non-allied nations.

The Report also refers to China's identification of the first two decades of the 21st century as a rare window of opportunity to grow "Comprehensive National Power" in attaining its status as a global power. It emphasizes the need for the United States to remain vigilant in managing US-China relations during China's trajectory to safeguard American interests as well as world peace and regional stability in the Asia Pacific.

Download Military and Security Developments involving the PRC 2013 - Annual Report to Congress

The following is its Exective Summary -

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

“The People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to pursue a long-term, comprehensive military modernization program designed to improve the capacity of its armed forces to fight and win short-duration, high-intensity regional military conflict. Preparing for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait appears to remain the principal focus and primary driver of China’s military investment.

However, as China’s interests have grown and as it has gained greater influence in the international system, its military modernization has also become increasingly focused on investments in military capabilities to conduct a wider range of missions beyond its immediate territorial concerns, including counter-piracy, peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance/disaster relief, and regional military operations. Some of these missions and capabilities can address international security challenges, while others could serve more narrowly-defined PRC interests and objectives, including advancing territorial claims and building influence abroad.

To support the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) expanding set of roles and missions, China’s leaders in 2012 sustained investment in advanced short- and medium-range conventional ballistic missiles, land-attack and anti-ship cruise missiles, counter-space weapons, and military cyberspace capabilities that appear designed to enable anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) missions (what PLA strategists refer to as “counter-intervention operations”). The PLA also continued to improve capabilities in nuclear deterrence and long-range conventional strike; advanced fighter aircraft; limited regional power projection, with the commissioning of China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning; integrated air defences; undersea warfare; improved command and control; and more sophisticated training and exercises across China’s air, naval, and land forces.

During their January 2011 summit, U.S. President Barack Obama and then-PRC President Hu Jintao jointly affirmed that a “healthy, stable, and reliable military-to-military relationship is an essential part of [their] shared vision for a positive, cooperative, and comprehensive U.S.-China relationship.”

Within that framework, the U.S. Department of Defense seeks to build a military-to-military relationship with China that is sustained and substantive, while encouraging China to cooperate with the United States, our allies and partners, and the greater international community in the delivery of public goods.

As the United States builds a stronger foundation for a military-to-military relationship with China, it also will continue to monitor China’s evolving military strategy, doctrine, and force development and encourage China to be more transparent about its military modernization program. In concert with its allies and partners, the United States will continue adapting its forces, posture, and operational concepts to maintain a stable and secure Asia-Pacific security environment”.

A long-term solution for North Korea

My article in the South China Morning Post of 6 May, 2013 "Understanding the driving forces of war can pave path to peace for North Korea" proposes a long-term solution instead of repeating a farcical merry-go-around in the game of chicken.

Download Understanding the driving forces of war can pave a path to peace for North Korea

India angry with China's perceived intrusion into Daulat Baig Oldie region of Ladakh

Live interview discussion panel on Times Now of India on 23 April, 2013. Another interview discussion panel was convened the following day.

According to the Financial Times, India's Foreign Minister is visiting China to cool off the tension. Click here

White Paper on China's Armed Forces

On 16 April, China's State Council released a White Paper explaining in some detail the sizes, organization, deployment and missions of the PLA Army (PLAA), the PLA Navy (PLAN), the PLA Air Force (PLAAF), the PLA Second Artillery Force (PLASAF) (the nation's strategic nuclear and missile deterence force), the People's Armed Police Force (PAPF) and the Militia.

The White Paper seems to respond to concerns with the perceived expansion of China's military expenditure (by 10.7% to $119 billion in 2013). In contrast, because of bugetary constraints, the United States has reduced hers to $640.7 billion for 2013 (a historic low level of only 40% of the entire world's military expenditure, for the first time in many decades) Click here.

The White Paper comes at a time when tensions are rising in the East and South China Seas where China's neighbours with rival territorial claims are becoming emboldened following the United States's strategic pivot to Asia.  Click here

It also comes when U.S. military planners are debating whether the concept of "Air-Sea Battle" (ASB) best serves America's strategic interests in a military confrontation against China. This is aimed at the increasing deterence against war-zone deployment of U.S. carrier assets posed by China's "Anti-Access Area Denail (A2AD)" capabilities. The latter take the form of mobile carrier-killer missiles, nuclear submarines, and long-range strike systems, supported by regional Command and Control, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C2ISR) assets.

Some U.S. military planners argue that ASB is predicated upon a first-strike paralysis of China's relevant C2ISR capabilities, which represents the supposedly "last (lowest) rung" of a possible escalation ladder. In such a scenario, according to these planners, "the “burden” of any further potential escalation would thereupon fall upon Beijing, for China presently lacks any capability to execute analogous precision conventional strikes upon the U.S. homeland. It would thus have either simply to accept the loss of its A2/AD capabilities or to take the enormous escalatory step of moving to the use of nuclear weaponry — a step that would presumably result in catastrophe for China in the face of U.S. retaliation".        

The PLA White Paper makes plain the following -

(a) Determined never to seek hegemony, China advances a new security concept of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination in maintaining peace and stability, embracing the strategies of Comprehensive Security, Common Security and Cooperative Security;

(b) The core aims of China's military is to safeguard the nation's sovereignty, security, territorial integrity, and peaceful development;

(c) China maintains a high level of military alertness and efficent combat readiness with steadily-elevated integrated reconnaissance and early warning, resistance, counterattack and protection including support and civilian defense systems, strategic deterrence and precision strikes, survival counter-attack, all-dimension response, full-territorial reach, and nuclear and conventional missile capabilities;

(d) The nation is geared to winning local wars under conditions of informatization as well as strategic and comprehensive joint operations;

(e) China safeguards the nation's maritime rights and interests including the deployment of joint military-police-civilian defense mechanisms, and coordination with law enforcement organs of marine surveillance and fisheries administrations;

(f) China needs to become a maritime power to safeguard critical Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCS), China's overseas assets essential for development; as well as the protection and emergency evacuation of Chinese nationals abroad;

(g) Amongst the five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, China is the largest contributor of peace-keeping soldiers and police. China is committed to global peace and continues to play an important role in international peace-keeping, disaster and other humanitarian relief, as well as anti-terrroism, anti-piracy and other international joint operations and exercises in maintaining global peace and security.

The message is clear. China is committed to peaceful development and vows never to seek hegemony. However, China is fully prepared for any eventuality including a comprehensive C2ISR readiness and will not tolerate threats to her core interests of sovereignty, security, territorial integrity, and continuing development.

This calls into question the validity of the ASB argument. If a first-strike is so effective as to paralyze China's entire C2ISR network, it is doubtful whether in such a perilous situation with unknown or uncertain threats, China would hesitate in deploying long-range missiles, at least conventional ones intially. If, on the other hand, the first-strike impact is less than complete, which is likely in view of the scale and diffusion of C2ISR assets for a country of China's size, the deterence of China's A2AD capabilities is likely to remain.

China's Achilles heel remains her dependence on resource imports through sea lanes. Hence, the country's determination to safeguard SLOCS. These include not only the South China Sea but also the India Ocean and all the way to the source of the bulk of China's energy imports - the Middle East. China's vulnerability is represented by the choke points of the Strait of Hormuz (affected by any international flare-up over Iran) and the Malacca Strait (controlled by the U.S. Seventh Fleet).

China's dominant role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) ensures the security of energy pipelines to China's western borders from and through friendly Central Asian states. Additionally, China is building a Eurasian transportation network encompassing Pakistan (through the port of Gwadar, now trasferred to Chinese management), Central Asia, the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. (Beijing Builds its Eurasian Transportation Network, The Jamestown Foundation, Richard Weitz, 12 April, 2013 here)

In the final analysis, China has now grown to be an 800-pound panda. She can no longer "hide under a bushel and bide her time" as Deng Xiaoping famously cautioned. Her actions and intentions are nevertheless largely defensive, reacting to perceived threats to her core interests of territorial integrity and energy security. even if her rivals and detractors do not see it that way.

The risk is that by constantly baiting and provoking this vast and increasingly more powerful country, things can escalate rapidly to a point of no return. Armageddon is in nobody's interest.

Rather than fixating on military power and zero-sum games, it would be far better to get China involved, in keeping with the turning of the tide, to build a new and sustainanle regional and global order in the interest of peace, stability and prosperity for all.

How could talks with North Korea resolve the problem once for all?

During his first official visit to Tokyo as Secretary of State, John Kerry hinted at the possibility of talks with North Korea provided certain strigent conditions are met.

It is timely to list a number of imperatives which are instructive in understanding the North Korea conundrum -

(a) If the North Korea regime collapses, there will be millions of hungry refugees invading China's borders, a humanitarian disaster of perhaps biblical proportions. That's why China keeps on feeding the North Koreans even if China's hand is bitten a number of times;

(b) Both Russia and China don't want a nuclear North Korea as this would trigger the positioning of nuclear weapons by Western allies near Russia and China's borders. What is more, this would spread nuclear armament in the region and beyond, neutralizing their own nuclear strategic advantage. For China, the added fear is a nuclear Japan.

(c) However, North Korea is trying to emulate Chairman Mao who ordered and possessed the Bomb in1964, regardless of everything else. Chairman Mao famously said that China would rather do without trousers (as the country was so poor) than giving up possessing the Bomb. At that time, China was subject to continuous risks of nuclear blackmail from the West and possessing the Bomb was seen as a sure-fired deterrent for preserving national sovereignty and dignity.

(d) For China, North Korea may act as a buffer and a useful bargaining chip against the West . But North Korea regime collapse is not necessarily all bad for China as China, rather than America, will be much more influential in deciding whether a collapsed North Korea is going to be united with South Korea and if so, on what terms (perhaps on condition that America should henceforth withdraw all its forces from a united Korea, which would be a justifiable demand with unification under South Korea). (The China Choice, Hugh White, Black Inc, Australia, 2012, pp. 89-93)

All these explain China's ambivalence in dealing with North Korea.

This also point to the possibility of a long-term negotiated settlement through initial talks behind the scene - North Korea giving up nuclear weapons once for all in a credible, verifiable way in return for an iron-clad guarantee for North Korea's sovereignty and security. This could take the form of a multilateral security treaty including U.S., China, Russia, Japan and South Korea plus abolition of sanctions, joint economic aid and the hope of entry into the World Trade Organization. I mentioned the idea of an iron-clad security guarantee for North Korea in a recent BBC radio program of 29 March, 2013. 

There is no guarantee that the North Koreans would buy that settlement, as the regime is now celebrating 100th birthday of the country's founding father, Kim Il Sung, hailing the country's right to possess nuclear weapons.

Nevertheless, nuclear weapons is a means to an end. In "The History of the Peloponnesian War", Thucydides wrote in 431 B.C.E that wars generally originated from fear, honour and profit, the three basic needs of people and nations - security, identity and prosperity.

With North Korea's ever-increasing escalation of dangerous theatrics to secure its ultimate goal of regime stability, national security and development, perhaps the idea of an iron-clad multilateral security treaty guarnatee coupled with powerful tools for economic development may at least be worth a try. 

How to deal with North Korea's nuclear threats

As one of the panelists in a BBC live radio program World Have Your Say on 29 March 2013

(To listen to the section where I featured, put pointer on bottom of screen to reveal a soundtrack bar. Slide the button to around 1636 and start listening.)

Japan's East Asian Strategic Review 2013

The latest Review, underaken by Japan's National Institute for Defence Studies, was released on 29 March. The report shows how, in a new era of declining capability to project power globally, the United States and other powers in a new multi-polar world are responding to regional risks and the rise of a more assertive China.

In particular, the report suggest that “Recognition that China’s maritime activities on the high seas will expand in a northerly direction in the near future is a factor motivating Russia to seek cooperation with Japan and the United States.”

It also paves the way for Japan to revamp the role of a "Dynamic Defence Force" to work more closely with the United States in maintaining regional security. This is poised to project Japanese geopolitical influence more robustly in the Asia Pacific region and beyond in the coming years.

Download Japan's East Asia Strategic Review 2013 - Executive Summary

These dynamics are happening at a time when China under President Xi's leadership vows to rejuvenate the nation not only socio-economically but as a great nation with global influence, in calls for a China Dream reminiscent of China's glorious past.

At the same time, compared with her adversaries, China is historically in a better financial and economic position to contiue to modernize and build up her military defenses, particulaly naval capabilities. These are essential in safeguarding the nations's economic and other strategic interests in the Asia Pacific, including vital sea lanes for international trade and resource importation, territorial claims, security of the Taiwan strait, and access to martime resources.

Tensions over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands have already driven a wedge between China and Japan. In addition to a China-eccentric Pivot to Asia strategy, the U.S.Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan means that America has to be on the side of Japan in case of a military confrontation against China.

Risks are mounting of a first spark igniting a prairie fire in an uncontrollable conflgration that would engulf all three parties and the rest of the world. Naturally, no one is disposed to this eventuality.

Nothing short of leader-to-leader talks to install crisis-management mechanisms, implementing tension-reducing and trust-building measures and a willingness to pursue areas for cooperation instead of confrontation could help pull all parties from the brink. 

China and Russia are closer than commonly thought possible

Zachary Keck, assistant editor of The Diplomat, argues in his article of 23 March 2013 that China and Russia will form closer ties that endure than is commonly thought possible.

This is because, according to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) , China will be importing 75% of the oil it consumes by 2035. Keck points out that "Bristish Petroleum forecasts that over half of the global liquids demand growth through 2030 will come from China, at which point Beijing’s 46 Billion Cubic Feet (bcf/d) of daily gas consumption will equal the entire EU’s gas consumption in 2010." BP expects that China, along with India, will account for 94% of global net oil demand growth through 2030.

As Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on export of resources, where will it be able to find such a big and steady customer as China? 

Moreover, according to Keck, the brewing idea of an U.S-EU free trade area would undercut Europe's dependence on Russian gas when America's shale gas revolution empowers it as a net gas exporter. If Russia's influence over Europe is weakened as a result, a closer relatiohsip with China may help to restore at least part of the global balance against a hostile Western bloc.

As for China, Russia's land-based energy supply would ease the Middle Kingdom's dependence on risky sea lanes dominated by American navy power and its allies, while a closer relationship with Russia would enable China to concentrate on growing her naval and other influence in the strategic Asia Pacific.

Milestones in China's missile defence and hard-power projection

Almost at the same time, two military breakthroughs marked an important milestone in the developmnent of China's military strength in missile defence and hard-power projection.

The first is the successful test flight of a long-range heavy transport plane, the Y-20, which "boasts “Chinese characteristics in supercritical airfoils, integrated avionics, cabin equipment, composite materials and their processing.”   It "can “carry the vast majority of combat and support vehicles of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA),” including the PLA’s heaviest tank, the 58-ton Type-99A2,"according to China Real Time Report of 28 January, 2013 here . 

"The Y-20’s capabilities are reportedly close to those of Russia’s Il-476, with one important exception: The Y-20’s Russian D-30KP2 engines lack the thrust and efficiency of the Il-476’s PS-90A76 turbofans. In a sign that even China’s aviation Achilles’ heel – engines – is now receiving major resources, China is developing a high-thrust turbofan called the WS-20 to fill this role as part of a major aeroengine resource and technology push. While progress will likely take time, reports suggest China could invest up to 300 billion yuan ($49 billion) in jet engine development by 2035. Acquisition of foreign technology and breakthroughs in recruiting foreign experts could help accelerate China’s jet engine development," the China Real Time Report explains.

The second is a successful testing of a "land-based, mid-course missile interception", which coincides with a similar and more advanced testing by the United States. Until now, this highly-sophiscated techology is being developed only by the United States and Japan. It is slated to be capable of intercepting hostile missiles mid-air before multi-warheads are launched from the projectile. Click here for a report in the Global Times of 28 January, 2013.

Together with the development of the nation's first blue-water aircraft-carrier fleet, China is now clearly showing the need to strengthen her missile defense system as well as capabilites in power projection, at a time when China has become too big and too globalized for Deng Xiaoping's old dictum "Bind your time and hide your light under the bushel" to be workable.