Publications

Low Carbon Earth Summit 2011, Dalian, PRC

Age of Scarcity: China at the Doorstep to Survival in a Low Carbon Future, my Keynote presentation on 19 October 2011 at 1335 hrs

Download Low Carbon Earth Summit Keynote Presentation

How Science and Technology Will Help China's Green Revolution, my special presentation at a parallel Session on "Petroleum Greentech" on 19 October, 2011 at 1435 hrs

Download BIT-WCPG-2011- How Science and Technology will help China's Green Revolution Presentation

I also chaired a full afternoon's presentation by various participating scientific delegates on Quantum Dot Solar Cells on 21 October, 2011 from 1330 - 1645 hrs.

Low Carbon Earth Summit Photos -

Group Photo  View this photo

Opening Ceremony  View this photo

As Speaker View this photo

China’s Industrial Development: Challenges and Opportunities in a Changing China

A presentation to the Danish Chamber of Commerce, Southern China Hengqin Exhibition Hall, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China, Friday 23 September 2011

Download China's Industrial Development- Challenges and Opportunies in a Changing China

Finding China’s cheese

A think-piece published in G+, an online community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs under the aegis of the Gerson Lehrman Group, Inc. NY

Click here

A New Era of China-Africa Trade, Investment, and Business Partnership: Lessons and Opportunities

A presentation to the 2nd Annual African Banking and Financial Institutions Conference in Accra, Ghana, 27-28 April, 2011 - New Opportunities, Financing, Regulation and Controlling Risks, sponsored by Fitch Ratings and Standard and Poor's amongst others and supported by the Mininstry of Finance, Ghana

Download 2011 Ghana Presentation - A New Era of China-Africa Trade, Investment, and Business Partnership- Lessons and Opportunities

Currency War and the RMB: Monetary Policy, Imbalances, and the Global Reserve Currency System

A presentation at the Forum Istanbul 2011, Turkey on 22 April, 2011 - International Monetary System and the Future of Exchange Rates - Currency War and the RMB: Monetary Policy, Imbalances, and the Global Reserve Currency System.

A keynote speech for the Forum was delivered by Ali Babacan, Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey.

Download Forum Istanbul 2011 - Currency War and the Future of the RMB

BRIC Economies - A New Dynamic

Feature article in Business Environment of The ANALYST, Journal of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India (ICFAI) University Press, April, 2011, featuring a Round Table interview with me.

Download ICFAI - BRIC Economies

China's Economy At Risk of Overheating

Article published in The ANALYST, official journal of The Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India (ICFAI) University Press, March 2011

Download ICFAI- Chinese Economy At Risk of Overheating

China's Liquidity Management: A Juggling and Balancing Act

Feature article in International Finance of The ANALYST, Journal of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India (ICFAI) University Press, January 2011

Download ICFAI - The Analyst - China’s Liquidity Management - Jan 2011

Will any 'regional' currency substitute the USD as a reserve currency?

The following is a re-print of my commentary on 20 December 2010 on the McKinsey Quarterly Executive Panel, an online platform:

Coming back to the original question whether any other currency is going to substitute the USD as a reserve currency, we have to be mindful of the word 'subsitute' Along with the USD, the Euro and the Japanese Yen are already held by many central banks as part of a basket of reserve currencies, altough the USD remains the dominant reserve currency.

So the question should be whether this dominant role is likely to be assumed by any substitute currency. Considering the sheer size and influence of the US economy, the current structural problems dogging the Euro and the Yen, and the non-convertibility of the Chinese yuan, I do not see this likely to happen any time soon.

But this is not to say that some 'regional' currencies may not become acceptable as one of the key reserve currencies in a basket so as to dilute the USD dominance. This has become more likely in the light of a tsunami of printed money following successive QEs. Forget about Gold Reserve. All the gold in Fort Knox and elsewhere cannot even match a tiny fraction of this sea of liquidity. It is a no-brainer that large holders of the greenback are likley to seek a measure of risk mitigation.

A likely future candidate for a more balanced basket of reserve currencies is the Chinese yuan, as and when it becomes convertible.

At the moment, China is in what Paul Krugman calls a 'US Dollar Trap', from which any immediate extraction could spell ruin to the Chinese coffers. However, it is no secret that China, along with other surplus countries, is gradually diversifying out of the greenback. Instead of putting so may eggs in a single basket of US Treasuries, more of China's capital is being channeled, through Outward Direct Investment, to acquire overseas assets and resources as well as equity in Western businesses.

What is more, China has been taking vigorous steps to hone the yuan's international acceptability, including trade settlements with her regional trading partners and issuing yuan-denominated bonds, initially in Hong Kong.

For a more detailed analysis of how delicately China manages the Chinese yuan in a turbulent sea of paper money, please visit my research note 'China’s Liquidity Management: A juggling and balancing act' at http://www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com/files/chinas-liquidity-management-pdf.pdf

Perhaps in the long run, it is no bad thing NOT to have a single dominant reserve currency, if only to avoid what is termed the 'Triffin Dilemma'. This dilemma was first identified by Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin in the 1960s. He opined that global reserve currency-issuing countries have to suffer large trade deficits in order to supply the world with enough of its currency to fulfill the world demand for foreign exchange reserves. This leads to a conflict of interests as well as tension between national monetary policy and global monetary policy.

Best regards and Merry Christmas,

Andrew K P Leung, SBS, FRSA
Chairman, Andrew Leung international Consultants Limited
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com

Paradox of a Rising China in transition

A panel presentation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business London Campus on 9 March 2010

Download Paradox of a Rising China in Transition