Publications

BRIC Economies - A New Dynamic

Feature article in Business Environment of The ANALYST, Journal of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India (ICFAI) University Press, April, 2011, featuring a Round Table interview with me.

Download ICFAI - BRIC Economies

The larger game in the Middle East

The tagline of the article by David E Sanger published on 2 April 2011 in the New York Times is 'The Larger Game in the Middle East: Iran'. Click here It might just as well read 'Iran and Israel' as together they define US geopolitics in the Middle East.

The reality is that the tide of the rising Arab street is un-mistakenly turning against US Middle East and North Africa autocratic allies run by Sunni elites, who are crucial counterweights against an anti-American, anti-Israel Shi'ite Iran with regional ambitions, even as the same tide is threatening an autocratic Iran.

The United States appears to be in a bind. Support the democratic aspirations of the Arab street and America's key Middle East allies such as Bahrain (home to the Fifth Fleet) and Saudi Arabia, the lynchpin of Middle East oil, could be put in jeopardy. Turn a blind eye to autocratic allies' repressions, Iran's moral influence would be strengthened and the more extreme elements of the rising Arab street could become radicalized.

Underpinning such Islamist radicalism is the festering Palestine Question - how fair would the West be in helping to create a genuine, independent Palestinian State while Israel is seen to be allowed to dictate terms unacceptable to the Palestinian people? God forbid, waging a pre-emptive war against Iran could plunge the whole Middle East, along with the entire world, into chaos and conflict of uncertain and potentially uncontrollable proportions.

As the tide of young, internet-enabled, democratic fury is sweeping across the Arab world, autocracy and repression are now past their sell-by date for maintaining key Western allies in the Middle East. Nor would military supremacy forever suppress Islamist radicalism or the burning aspirations for genuine statehood of a long-suffering people. All these critical issues are inter-linked in the Arab world in the Middle East and North Africa and must be tackled with a broader vision and boldness they deserve.

There is one vital strand in formulating a Western response to the larger game in the Arab world.

Regardless of the uncertainties and turmoil, it is important to stay the course on the side of freedom, democracy and social justice without fear and favor, even with American's Middle East and other regional allies.

If properly managed over time, reform may not necessarily end in instability. After all, not everyone wants regime change overnight especially in the less repressive Arab countries.

What is more important is to grasp the nettle and seize the moment of achieving a genuine breakthrough in the so-called 'Middle East Peace Process' by brokering a fair and viable settlement for an independent and unified Palestinian state.

Holding true to the West's key values is likely to pull the rug from under the feet of any radical Islamism that can highjack the frustrations in the rising Arab street.

Allowed to run its course, an Arab Spring will have a chance to change the whole civil landscape in the Middle East, including the evolution of a less fundamentalist Iran. That would spell more lasting security and stability for Israel, the rest of the Middle East, and indeed for the world.

(The above is posted on ATCA 24/7 on Yammer, an online Community on 4 April, 2011)

Andrew

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com

How the BRIC and EAGLE countries could grow to dominate the world by 2050

Contribution to an invitation from the The ANALYST, Journal of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India (ICFAI) University Press

Download ICFAI Questionaire on BRIC (with Postcript)

Global Paradigm Shifts and Game Change with a Rising China

A presentation at the Forum Istanbul, Turkey on 20 May, 2010

Download Forum Istanbul 2010 - Global Paradigm Shifts and Game Change with a Rising China

China Ethos: The Green Swans of Climate Change

A specially commissioned article for the Ethos Magazine, London, Winter 2009/10 Issue

Download The Green Swans of Climate Change - China Ethos

Unilateralsim doesn't work with Global Interdependence

A short note written for and published by the Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) dated 22 July, 2007

 Download unilateralism_does_not_work_atca.pdf

North Korea:To win without waging war

A short note written for the Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) dated 11 February, 2007

Download north_korea_to_win_without_waging_war__atca_.pdf

Negotiating Global Equilibrium - the Strategic use of Soft Power in an Age of Asymmetric Forces

A short note written for the Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) dated 20 October, 2006

Download negotiating_global_equilibrium_the_strategic_use_of_soft_power_in_an_age_of_asymmetric_forces.pdf

North Korea, the Beijing Consensus, Soft Power and the Art of War

A short note written for the Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) darted 9 October, 2006

Download north_korea_the_beijing_consensus_soft_power_and_the_art_of_war.pdf

In Search of Harmony - China appears at last

A short note written for the Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) dated 5 August, 2006

Download in_search_of_harmony_china_appears_at_last.pdf