CHINAwatch

Will NATO’s new strategic concept work?

Inside Story on Aljazeera on 30 June, 2022. 

The Consequences of Conquest: Why Indo-Pacific Power Hinges on Taiwan

The above July/August 2022 article in Foreign Policy posits that there are no good options for Taiwan, considering its invaluable strategic asset for both China and the United States.

Beyond the political agenda of unification, Taiwan holds the key for China to break thorough America's Island Chain Strategy encircling Mainland China with military assets from Okinawa (First Island Chain) and Guam (Second Island Chain). Possession of Taiwan would enable China to extend its military assets including submarines and underwater microphones (hydrophones) to the Philippine Sea, the body of water in between the two island chains reaching to Japan. 

The article concludes that Washington has no good options on Taiwan and a great many bad ones that could court calamity.

Beyond supplying defensive arms to the island under the existing Taiwan Relations Act, ending "strategic ambiguity" for a formal commitment of direct US military action to defend the island could provoke the very crisis the policy is designed to prevent, intensifying the already dangerous competition between the United States and China.

The alternative of turbo-charging regional defense with US allies is likely to result in tighter defense pacts, additional military aid, and more visible U.S. force deployments in the region, including nuclear forces on or near allies’ territory, perhaps including nuclear planning collaboration. This would likewise lead to regional tension, if not nuclear proliferation.

Retreating from military commitments for Taiwan and the region is even more problematic. If Taiwan is militarily threatened, fearful of a domino effect, Japan might fight to defend Taiwan, even if the United States did not. The result might be a major-power war in Asia that could draw in the United States, willingly or not.

The open-ended article raises the following considerations.

Taiwan unification is not just a Beijing diktat. It's the universal wish of all Chinese people on the Mainland and many of China's diaspora. It's part and parcel of the China Dream of national renaissance, purging the demon of a "century of humiliation" including territorial separatism under foreign domination. Without ruling out military means, President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stressed that peaceful unification remains China's primary aim, at the latest by 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

Unification has very little mileage in Taiwan. In an August 2021 survey, August 2021 poll, nearly 90% of the public identify themselves as Taiwanese. 50.1 % support maintaining the “status quo,” 38.9 % back independence and 4.7 % favor joining China. Those in favor of maintaining the status quo include the one million or so Taiwanese working and living on the Mainland for their businesses. While the clock is ticking, a peaceful solution seems to be receding more and more from the horizon.

Washington has long been playing the Taiwan card to confront China. Despite lip service to the One China Policy, America has been training Taiwan's military both inside the island and without, supplying it with more advanced weaponry turning it into an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" or a defensive porcupine, sending more and very senior officials to meet Taiwanese authorities, and promoting the role of Taiwan in international organizations as if Taiwan were an independent nation. Additionally, US naval "Freedom of Navigation Operation" patrols continue to challenge China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, while US Air Force surveillance flights move closer and closer to China's shores. All these tactics are considered highly provocative by Beijing.   

China's military doesn't entirely depend on the Taiwan Strait. Its DF-21 Anti-ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBM) are well capable of denying access of America's aircraft carriers to immediate war theatres. Its DF-31A, a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile with possibly 3–6 independently targetable multiple reentry vehicles (MIRV) (warheads) has an effective range of up to 15,000 km, well capable of reaching many parts on the US homeland. 

If the US dares not to come to direct blows with Russia over Ukraine, what makes it different over Taiwan with an adversary much more economically powerful than Russia (whose GDP roughly equals that of Guangdong Province) and much more dependent upon by the rest of the world (130 nations have China as their largest trading partner versus 57 for the US), let alone much more militarily prepared? The Ukraine War will no doubt act as a cautionary tale, while Beijing is known to be quietly studying and learning lessons, one way or the other. 

Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley testified to the Senate on 17 June, 2021 that China had not possessed full capability to prevail over Taiwan until 2027, with little likelihood of any immediate adventurism. However, according to a Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center Report of 16 December, 2021, "the era of US military primacy is over". "every domain is contested—air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace. ".... if in the near future there is a “limited war” over Taiwan or along China’s periphery, the U.S. would likely lose —or have to choose between losing and stepping up the escalation ladder to a wider war." Above all, Beijing may well be able to create a fait accompli at lightning speed before Washington is able to muster enough effective response. 

While there is little clear and present danger, my prognosis is that beyond 2027, there will be over 50% chance of a forceful unification. Barring untoward circumstances, each subsequent year is likely to add, say, perhaps 5% more to such likelihood, before Beijing's declared absolute deadline of 2049. 

Absent any good options, however, US doing more of the same risks sleepwalking to a looming cliff.  It's about time for President Biden to step up to the plate by defusing this ticking time bomb. Brokering eventual peaceful unification with iron-clad international safeguards preserving Taiwanese people's way of life appears to be a solution. However, this would mean the US losing a militarized island asset to balance against China.  Any solution, therefore, must be put in the context of US long-term relations with its near-peer rival.

Apart from wanting its deserved place in the sun, China has neither capacity nor intention to rule the world, including shouldering associated responsibilities or obligations. Not least because, with China's plummeting global image, few countries want to embrace its political system or ideology. It is therefore opportune to explore possibilities for a more sustainable US-China relationship, including a mutually-acceptable roadmap for the Taiwan issue. No doubt these considerations would be taken up in a future Biden-Xi tele-conversation, said to be under planning in the White House.   

President Xi signed order for national military preparedness

Exclusive live TV interview with RT on 13 June, 2022.

Download LIVE RT INTL LEUNG

Poland threatens to impose sanctions on China for buying Russia oil

Pre-recorded TV interview  (in English) on 1 June, 2022 and broadcast on Russian-language national TV channel Izvestia. 

What The Economist omits to address in President Xi's vision of a global security order

The Economist article of 5 May 2022 claims that "Xi Jinping lays out a worldview with Chinese-Russian roots".

Laced with arguments soothing to Western ears, the article points out that Beijing's worldview primarily serves its own best interest, not wanting to lend support to a US-led Western coalition to punish, ostracize, and cripple, if not totally topple, Putin's Russia.

Well written regardless, the article glosses over the following dimensions:

(a) Should the pot call the kettle black? After all, all nations act in their own best interests, not least the United States. The war in Ukraine is seen as a godsend to revive US leadership and European/NATO unity. It would weaken if not destabilize Putin's Russia. Likewise, it presents a timely opportunity to implicate Beijing, which, as the article rightly points out, remains the United States' primary adversary. If all goes according to plan, a crumbling Russia would further empower the United States to prevail on China. 

(b) Beijing so far refrains from getting actively involved as a broker over Ukraine. Any even-handedness would be seen by the United States as pro-Russia. Following the US hymnbook would be ignoring Russia's security concerns; nor would it be in China's best interests. 

(c) The existing US-led "liberal order" seems on the verge of breaking down. It can't prevent the war over Ukraine from happening. Nor is the United States prepared to get directly involved. It is full of self-serving hypocrisy and double-standards. Witness Guantánamo Bay, illiberal treatment of US immigrants; selective embrace of Arabian authoritarian regimes; and indiscriminate coercion against other countries' rightful development.

(d) The United States seems turbo-charged to segregate the world into two camps, framing this a contest of the century between democracy and authoritarianism. However, notwithstanding draconian across-the-board sanctions and other restrictions, according to Wang Huiyao, founder and president of Center for China and Globalization (CCG) in Beijing, in 2021, "global trade hit a record $28.5 trillion, up 25% year-on-year and 13% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic struck. For all the talk of decoupling, U.S.-China trade swelled more than 20% last year, to $687.2 billion. Even with war in Ukraine, global trade is forecast to grow in 2022, albeit at a slower pace". "Cross-border investment also surpassed pre-pandemic levels last year, swelling to $1.65 trillion. China, in particular, is more integrated into the global economy than ever. In 2021, its foreign direct investment inflows rose by a third to an all-time high of $334 billion. In the first quarter of this year, they grew by more than 25% year-on-year". Click here "Globalization isn’t dead, It’s just not American anymore", Wang quipped. 

(e) Why should a world with diverse history, race, culture, ideology, politics, and stages of development, including ancient civilizations, be dictated by a US-defined one-size-fits-all formula? After all, the West represents only 8% of the world's population. The developing world now accounts for 57% of the world GDP. 123 countries have China as the largest trading partner compared with 57 for the United States. Not to mention the legitimacy of different regimes in the eyes of their own people. According to latest reports of Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center and Edelman Trust Barometer findings, over 90% of China's people trust the CCP government, multiple rankings above virtually all Western countries including the United States. Click here

(f) Why shouldn't President Xi's idea of a new global security order be at least equally good, if not better, for the world? What is wrong with his call for a security order that is “common, comprehensive, co-operative and sustainable” eschewing divisive alliances and blocs? Wouldn't this at the very least reduce spiraling global conflicts? 

(g) Why should (c) (d) (e) and (f) above be branded as having "Russian roots"? 

Some fresh perspectives on Xinjiang and Tibet

Some fresh perspective is provided by Shaun Rein, an American Chinese of Jewish extraction, author of "End of Cheap China" and Founder of China Market Research Group, in a video podcast of 20 February 2022 hosted by Cyrus Janssen, a Canadian blogger who lived in China a long time and now relocated back in Canada.

Shaun visited Xinjiang and Tibet long enough to be able to share some insights on criticisms of China regarding Xinjiang and Tibet. He also offered some tips on how China could improve its communications with the West.   

A summarizing expose of 12 March, 2022 with real-life videos alleging hidden CIA operations is provided by Felix Abt, author of "My Seven Years in the Hermit Kingdom" in Covert Action Magazine, Covert Action Institute, a non-profit organization incorporated in the State of New York. 

US delegation visits Taiwan, provoking China's anger

Pre-recorded TV interview on RT (London) on 16 April, 2022.

How the Ukrainian Crisis Impacts on Eurasia Geopolitics and US-China Relations

A PowerPoint presentation to the EGN Founding Chairmen Group in  Hong Kong on 7 April, 2022.

Download How the Ukrainian Crisis Impacts on Eurasia Geopolitics US-China Relations including HK 

 

The Impact of the Crisis in Ukraine on Global Supply Chains and China’s Economy.

An unbiased, critical Report dated 24.03.2022 by Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalization (CCG). 

Download CCG-Report-The-Impact-of-the-Crisis-in-Ukraine-on-Global-Supply-Chains-and-Chinas-Economy1 (1)

"This report begins by analyzing the massive shock caused by the Ukraine crisis and the US-European sanctions against Russia, providing initial estimates of the impact on the Russian economy, world financial markets, energy and food markets, global supply chains, the European economy and more widely the global economy. Second, the report posits several possible conclusions to the Ukraine crisis and the subsequent geostrategic impact on Europe. Finally, the report concludes by examining the Chinese economy beyond its borders and providing relevant recommendations. In summary, CCG believes that China could play the role of mediator in this crisis and potentially promote better multilateral relationships among Europe, the US and Russia."

The Report flags up the need for early resolution of the crisis, which is upending the world's stability and economy in myriad ways. It mentions China's possible role in acting as mediator but does not address the essential ingredients of a sustainable peace deal which may balance the demands on all sides.

China is in a delicate situation, not wanting to contravene the hallowed UN Charter principles of national sovereignty and opposition to unilateral action. See a 28 March 2022 report by a Hong Kong correspondent of Washington D.C.-based Feature Story News. Download 220325 i24 Chi Rus

On the other hand, it's clear that the United States wants to put maximum pressure on China to help strangle Russia. CGTN anchor Liu Xin famously quipped,  "Can you help me to fight your friend so that I can later concentrate on fighting you?"

So the sooner China can become the good guy by helping to broker an enduring peace over Ukraine, the better. A practical way-out may a "Swiss Solution" outlined in How to resolve the Ukrainian crisis dated 5 March, 2022 on Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights. 

U.S. warships often sail close to disputed regional waters drawing warnings from China

Live interview on 23 March, 2022 with Press TV.