CHINAwatch

China opposes US official's Taiwan visit

Live TV interview with Press TV on 7 August, 2020 (My intervention starts from time counter 04:30) 

In affront to China, US announces highest-level visit to Taiwan in decades

Live TV interview with Press TV on 5 August, 2020

Pompeo: Chinese trade deal with Iran will destabilize Middle East

Live interview  on 3 August, 2020 with Press TV. 

China’s Response to Climate Change: A Study in Contrasts and a Policy at a Crossroads

An Asia Society Policy Institute Issue Paper of July 2020 by David Sandalow, Inaugural Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, surveys China's remarkable achievements and contradictions on Climate Change in its run-up to its 14 Five Year Plan (2021-2025) (expected to be launched in October this year).

The following excerpts are instructive - 

• China leads the world in deployment of renewable power, with almost three times as much capacity as any other nation. In 2019, 36 percent of the renewable power capacity added globally was in China (down from 42 percent in 2018 and the lowest this figure has been in several years).
• The Chinese government has adopted some of the world’s most ambitious energy efficiency and forest conservation policies, but is financing a significant expansion of coal-fired power plant capacity at home and abroad. China’s leaders are strongly committed to the Paris Agreement, but appear to attach less priority to climate change than in years past.
• The Chinese government has announced four principal climate change goals:
  I. to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030, making best efforts to peak early;
  II. to lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60 percent–65 percent from the 2005 level by 2030;
  III. to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy to around 20 percent by 2030; and
  IV. to increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from 2005 levels by 2030.
• China is on track to meet all these goals. In fact, many analysts project that China is likely to achieve the first goal—to peak CO2 emissions—well before 2030. The second and third goals both appear to be achievable based on current trends. And the fourth goal was met in 2019—11 years ahead of schedule.
• Policies that promote solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear power as alternatives to coal reduce both local air pollutants and heat-trapping gases. So do policies that promote energy efficiency. Policies that promote natural gas as an alternative to coal help reduce local air pollution by 90 percent or more and CO2 emissions by roughly 50 percent, provided the natural gas does not leak. Policies to promote electric vehicles provide significant local air pollution benefits and are essential to long-term decarbonization of the transport sector. 
• China has 48 nuclear power plants—the third-largest fleet in the world, behind only the United States and France. Of the 13 nuclear power plants in the world opened in 2018 and 2019, 9 were in China. In 2019, nuclear power provided roughly 4.6 percent of China’s electricity, up from 4.0 percent in 2018 and 3.8 percent in 2017. The Chinese government has ambitious plans to expand China’s nuclear-generating capacity. However, construction has not kept pace with the goals in the 13th Five Year Plan (2016–2020), which calls for 58 GW of installed nuclear power capacity and an additional 30 GW under construction by 2020. As of June 2020, China had 48 GW of installed nuclear power capacity and roughly 12 GW under construction.
• In the first half of 2020, the central government and many provinces adopted policies to promote EVs, including extended purchase subsidies and additional license plate quotas. In his May 2020 speech to the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang identified investment in EV charging infrastructure and promoting greater use of new energy vehicles as economic stimulus priorities of the Chinese government.
• Implementation of China’s national CO2 emissions trading program has proceeded slowly. Delays have been due to data availability challenges, government reorganization, the inherent complexity of emissions trading programs and—most recently—COVID-19.
• China’s green finance policies promote investment in a wide range of assets, including renewable energy projects, water treatment plants, recycling facilities, and mass transit. In 2019, China’s green finance policies helped mobilize in the range of RMB 240 billion to RMB 280 billion ($34 billion to $40 billion) of green bonds for qualifying projects.
• During the next 18 months, the Chinese government will spend heavily on economic stimulus measures, release its 14th Five-Year Plan (for 2021–2025), and develop short- and long-term climate action plans (known as its “updated nationally-determined contributions” and “mid-century strategy” in the terminology of the global U.N. climate process).
• In the United States (where a Biden administration would dramatically change the federal government’s climate change policies), in Europe (where climate issues have especially high profile), in many poor developing counties (where vulnerability to climate change is most acute), and everywhere policymakers focus on climate change, Chinese policies will receive significant attention.
• Today, China’s climate policies are a study in contrasts—promoting low-carbon development and high-carbon infrastructure at the same time. The next 18 months are a critical time in Chinese climate change policy. Decisions by China’s leaders will have significant impacts on the global climate for years to come.  

China is a vast and ecologically-challenged country. With 20% of the world's population, it is endowed with only 7% of the world's freshwater. Moreover, the distribution of its water resources is extremely uneven: over 80% are situated south of the Yangtze River. A vast proportion of China's polluted lakes and rivers remain sub-standard in water quality. While impressive advances have been made in renewables, this has been offset by "curtailment" due to insufficient "smart-grids" to capture and redistribute wasted power in off-peak hours. Moreover, much of China's energy needs have to be met by coal. Air quality in cities have registered improvements but much is left to be desired. 

Suffice it to say that an ecologically "beautiful China" remains a key tenet of the China Dream, hopefully to be realized by 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. The vision is no longer a mirage but getting there is a long and winding road. 

China Is Done Biding Its Time? But what is America's end-game?

The End of Beijing’s Foreign Policy Restraint? poses the above question in Foreign Policy on 15 July, 2020. The piece is penned by Kurt Campbell, Chair and CEO of The Asia Group and former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, with Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The tour d'horizon summarizes a dramatic about-face of China's foreign policy, in rhetoric and action, from Deng Xiaoping's earlier "hide-and-bide" admonition. China's assertiveness on all fronts is thought to be exploiting the Trump Administration's AWOL on global leadership. The worldwide chaos resulting from the Coronavirus pandemic has created opportunities for a much more powerful China to overreach, thinking that its time has come as a Great Power. 

The authors conclude with the following observation: 

"Fortunately for the next U.S. president, the contours of a better American approach to China have been evident for some time. The United States must reject the punitive unilateralism that has become the norm in recent years and that has produced no trade or national security gains whatsoever. It must rejigger its relationship with allies in Europe and Asia, who provide its only remaining chance at balancing China in the decades ahead. It must reinvest in international institutions, such as the UN, the G-7, and the WHO, which are indispensable for crisis management and which China is all too happy to lead in the United States’ absence. And it must restore its own domestic health and prosperity to remain a viable competitor on the global stage."

Aside from the chances of a second-term Trump presidency, there is a robust bipartisan consensus in the United States that China has become an existential threat (or an "evil empire") with a totally different ideology. This is perceived to be eroding the America-led liberal global order, including American interests in trade, technology, the South China Sea, and ideology. There is widespread support for a robust all-of-government push-back on all fronts, with unilateral sanctions and decoupling where necessary, to exert maximum pressure in the hope of behavioral, if not regime change. It's no wonder that amid the Coronavirus outbreak, American negative views of China have jumped significantly, according to an April 21st PEW survey. 

As for traditional US allies, while wanting to resist China's assertiveness, neither Europe nor Asia wishes to be forced to take sides. This also applies to the rest of the world, with a few exceptions. This is because China has become the largest trading partner of 124 countries, compared to US's 76. China is deeply imbedded in the global complex supply-and-value chains, strategic decoupling notwithstanding. The seven-year period needed for the UK to decouple from Huawei is a case in point. So is the fact that some 90% of India's pharmaceutical industry depends on inputs of China's ingredients.

Another example showing how integrated China remains is the proposed launch in a year or so of the world's largest trading bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), where China, as the world's second largest economy, is set to be a leading partner. This encompasses all ASEAN countries and each member's regional trading partners. With India, it would account for 50% of the world's population and 40% of world GDP. Without India, which has recently withdrawn from engagement, the percentages would be 30% in both cases. 

As for global institutions, the Trump administration has been flouting the UN, lording it over the G-7, and dishing the WHO. It would take time and concrete examples to rebuild America's leadership. 

At the end of the day, there is a growing risk of misreading China's real intentions. China would be foolish to displace the United States as global leader as it remains unable and unwilling to shoulder the responsibilities. Nor would the world be prepared to accept this in view of China's ideology.

However, the Chinese Communist Party has been enjoying increasing support by the people across the board, according to a July 2020 Harvard Kenney School Ash Center survey Understanding CCP Resilience: Surveying Chinese Public Opinion Through Time. It's only rightful for China to realize its China Dream of historic renaissance as a Great Power, bringing better and more dignified lives for its people, provided its trajectory is not seen to be at other countries' expense.

What is more, absent a pragmatic and constructive end-game, a plethora of paranoiac, no-holds-barred, get-tough actions on China could well end up with the very opposite of what these maximum-pressure tactics are meant to achieve, warns Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., in his July 17 commentary The United States Has Gotten Tough on China. When Will It Get Strategic? 

A World Politics Review of May 2020, US-China Rivalry in the Trump Era offers a panoply of analyses of multiple responses to the perceived China challenge. As one of the Review's leading authors Howard French wily observes, "Nonetheless, beyond vague calls for the U.S. to get its own house in order and reinvigorate its partnerships, which few sensible people can argue with, it is far from obvious what else Americans should do about the across-the-board challenge that China presents." The absence of a clear-eyed endgame is conspicuous. 

A Rand Corporation 2020 study China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories and Long-Term Competition examines how successful China would be in realizing its China Dream of becoming a fully-developed nation by 2049. It outlines four scenarios: "triumphant", "ascendant", "stagnant" and "imploding", concluding that the middle scenarios are much more likely.

While generally balanced, the study quotes statistics no later than 2015. It somewhat under-estimates China's explosive consumption growth (38.8% of GDP in 2019, contributing 60% to economic growth), overplaying the importance of exports (only 17.4% of GDP (5% for net-exports) in 2019). It doesn't seem to do justice to China's rapid advances in e-commerce, 5G, big data, quantum computing, internet-of-things (IoT), its recently-completed global BaiDou Navigation Satellite System, and Tianwen-1, China's first Mars Probe Mission. It also seems oblivious to the above-mentioned Harvard Kennedy School's study on CCP resilience. In any case, its overarching response is America's military.

A Brookings Institution April 2020 study Preparing the United States for the Superpower Marathon with China underscores the imperative of geo-economic competition, defined by 21st century game-changing technologies like 5G and quantum computing. Apparently borrowing the competitive terminology from Michael Pillsbury's much-admired 2016 tome The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower , it argues that " If we are to prevail, we must  compete rather than contain China." It concludes that "The outcome of this geo-economic competition is by no means certain. .... If the U.S. fails to prepare for this superpower marathon, we will resign ourselves to becoming a second-rate power while the world looks up to a new global leader with strikingly different values and views." This gives some credence to the possibility of the China "triumphant" scenario in the above-mentioned Rand Corporation study.

With American hawks in the ascendant, a new US-China Cold War seems inevitable. Nevertheless, de-risking  it would be in everyone's interests. What is more, President Trump will never win his New Cold War with China , according to columnist Robin Wright of The New Yorker on 29 July, 2020, suggesting that principled engagement on areas of concern coupled with partnership on global issues like Climate Change is likely to be more productive.

China takes possession of closed US consulate in Chengdu

Live interview with Press TV on 27 July 2020.

China condemns U.S. requirement to close Chinese consulate in Houston

Live TV interview on 22 July, 2020 with Press TV.

Why UK now bans Huawei

Live TV interview with RT International on 14 July, 2020

US weaponizes everything from Hong Kong to Huawei to exert pressure on Beijing

Op-ed in Sputnik International on 14 July, 2020. Headquartered in Moscow, the international online news channel broadcasts in 32 languages with offices in Washington DC, Cairo, Beijing, Paris, Berlin, London, India and Edinburgh. 

Thanks to Covid-19, are we facing a turning point in history?

No, says Richard Haass, President of US Council on Foreign Relations. The Pandemic Will Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It , he writes in Foreign Policy on 7 April, 2020, reminding us that "not every crisis is a turning point", harking back to his earlier tome A World in Disarray (Penguin Press, New York, 2017).

Outlined in The Global Analyst of June 2020 are Ten Reasons Why the Coronavirus Crisis Will Spawn a Brave New World of Discord.

An epochal rivalry for global dominance between the US and China will intensify whoever is in the White House. While the US retreats from obligations as global leader, China remains ill-fitted and unwilling to usurp America's role.

In face of mounting headwinds, China is emerging from Covid-19 with a more sober view of its geo-economic and geopolitical trajectory. Nevertheless, as China is the first to recover from the pandemic while the US tops the world with total Covid-19 cases approaching 3 million, China may well be able to overtake the US economy sooner than expected, before 2030. Click here 

What is more, obscured by demonization, the legitimacy of China's development model is gaining global ascendancy. This is supported by Washington D.C.-based research institutions like the 2020 Edelman Trust Barometer (page 7) and PEW Center people's satisfaction ratings . These consistently show that China's people trust their government much more compared with Western democracies.

With Covid-19, China's draconian city lockdown measures are now copied by many countries, Western democracies included. With long-established systemic racism in the United States highlighted by the George Floyd tragedy, the universality of capitalistic democracy is beginning to be questioned. Huntington's Clash of Civilizations is coming home to roost. 

Nevertheless, nationalism in on the rise across the globe. With a pervasive "China Scare", national security in personal protective equipment (PPE) and high-tech services such as 5G is likely to drive a global wave of decoupling from China, causing trade flow disruptions.

However, as China has already been intricately embedded in the global multi-faceted supply and value chain, meaningful decoupling is easier said than done. Challenges as described in Strategic US-China decoupling in the tech sector (Hinrich Foundation) and China dominates medical supplies, in this outbreak and the next (New York Times) are instructive. 

Meanwhile, as contagion risks remain, more and more business interactions are being conducted using Zoom or equivalents. With the advent of 5G, big data, and the Internet of Things, how businesses are transacted and how people live and work are migrating to a new normal. Robots and virtual experiences are becoming commonplace. A lot more will work from home. The quantity and features of offices and housing are likely to be transformed. There will be a paradigm shift in urban and global connectivity.

As Henry Kissinger opined in the Walls Street Journal on 3 April, 2020, The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order.

The world will never be the same!