CHINAwatch

China arrests two Canadians - any connection with the Huawei saga?

Live interview with Press TV on 13 December, 2018. 

Why is China's biggest technology company being targeted?

TV panel discussion on Inside Story with Aljazeera English Channel on 7 December, 2018.

 

Beijing's reaction to arrest in Canada of Huawei's CFO

TV interview on The World with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) on 7th December.

Download Huawei CFO arrest - Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC)  

 

 

China-America tensions heat up: Huawei CFO faces extradition to US

 Live interview with RT on 6th December, 2018. 

Interviews with Aljazeera and RT on US-China trade war and long-term rivalry before and post G20 Summit

With Aljazeera English Channel on 1 December, 2018. 

With RT International on 2 December, 2018. 

Why APEC meeting failed to reach consensus?

Live interview with Press TV on 18 November, 2018

ASEAN Summit discussed RCEP as world's largest trading bloc with implications of possible erosion of dollar dominance

Live TV interview with RT on 14 November, 2018

The Trade War and Sino-US relations

Radio Hong Kong's Backchat live panel discussion on 5 November, 2018 looks at the dynamics of the trade war and shifts in future Sino-US relations. (My input runs from time-counter 20:59 to 27:43 in the Full series.)

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Trade, People, and Money: Understanding China's Unique Capabilities

Stephen Olson, Hong Kong-based research fellow of the Hinrich Foundation, in an article of 24 October, 2018 in The American Prospect, a liberal magazine based in Washington D.C., suggests that the West, (particularly the United States), needs to  negotiate a modus vivendi with China's very different economic system and unique global capabilities in trade, peoples and money, "to pursue national objectives and shape it relations—economic, trade, strategic, and diplomatic—with other countries and multilateral institutions." This may well be pivotal in helping to shape a looming Chinese Century

The Chinese Century is well under way: Many trends that appear global are in fact Chinese

An infographic of The Economist (27 October, 2018) shows that -

• Chinese economy in PPP terms became the world’s largest in 2013;
• Its GDP per person at PPP has risen tenfold since 1990;
• Because China is so populous and is developing so quickly, it is responsible for a remarkable share of global change. Since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, for example, China has accounted for 45% of the gain in world GDP;
• In 1990 some 750m Chinese people lived in extreme poverty; today fewer than 10m do. That represents two-thirds of the world’s decline in poverty during that time;
• China is also responsible for half of the total increase in patent applications over the same period;
• China’s record has exerted a “gravitational pull” on the world’s economic output, tilting it towards the East;
• The People’s Liberation Army accounts for over 60% of the total increase in global defence spending since 1990;
• China is also the source of 55% of the increase in the world’s carbon emissions since 1990.

The infographic, however, does not capture the reality that China now sits at the centre of a global supply and value chain. Even if not made in China, many goods have imbedded a Chinese component in terms of materials, parts, logistics or trade. Many countries across the globe depend significantly on Chinese trade and investments.

This global centrality will intensify with China's Belt and Road Initiative, driven by Policy, Infrastructure, Trade, Finance and People-to-People Connectivity, covering 64 countries representing 62% of world population and 30% of world GDP with potential investment $5 trillion, many times the size of the post-war Marshal Plan in comparable money-of-day terms.

According to a McKinsey Global Institute Report of September, 2018, emerging economies (of which the Chinese economy is bigger than the rest of the BRICS combined), have accounted for almost two-thirds of the world’s GDP growth and more than half of new consumption over the past 15 years. This translates into a declining relative share of global GDP contributed by the United States, its recent positive growth notwithstanding.

Taking into account all of the above, it seems unlikely that the "Chinese Century" scenario will be reversed, America's current 360-degree pushback against China notwithstanding. 

However, it begs the question how a transition into a possible Chinese Century could be benign. China's state-directed capitalism and authoritarian regime are not everybody's cup of tea. Helping to shape a benign transition into a World Order of global appeal may well call for negotiating a modus vivendi with a now-wide-awake giant with unique capabilities to shake the world.