(A short note written for and published by the Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) dated 24 October, 2007)
With abated breath following the conclusion of the much-watched 17th Communist Party of China (CPC) Party Congress, the world's media has finally met the new line-up of China's leadership at a press conference in Beijing. But what will this new line-up signify to China and the rest of the world? Various speculations on behind-the-scene machinations and the significance of what often sounds like political rhetoric remain to challenge observers. To some, the whole ritual appears no better than a Chinese riddle, if not one wrapped inside a puzzle in the midst of an enigma.
Succession
All eyes naturally fall on the two rising stars elevated to the Politburo. Observers hasten to point out that Xi Jinping belongs to the so-called 'princeling group' consisting of some of the more able offspring of Old Revolutionaries. Li Keqiang is a known protégé of President Hu with strong Communist Youth League affiliations (the so-called 'tuanpai'). But what often passes without comment is that Xi has consistently proven his mettle as an outstanding administrator through the ranks, from village, county, city, prefecture to provincial levels. Equally less conspicuous is the fact that Li studied Law and has a doctorate in economics from Beijing University and that he ran one of the most effective campaigns to promote former President Jiang Zemin's 'Three Represents'. (Andrew Nathan and Bruce Gilley, 2003, China's New Rulers - The Secret Files, New York Review Books.) Perhaps not unlike political pedigrees in the West, political anointment may be a blessing in modern Chinese politics. But with no lack of other aspirants, that is by no means a be-all and end-all. There is still many a slip, and a great deal depends as much on past track record as on future performance in what is now evidently a collective leadership.
Another surprising outcome which ended much speculation is the stepping down of Zeng Qinghong,Vice President, in compliance with the Party's collectively-agreed age criteria. He was reputed to be former President Jiang's king-maker and a highly able and respected leader tipped to rise even higher. His departure from the Politburo, along with the more internationally known and highly capable Vice Premier Madam Wu Yi, signifies what one Beijing citizen insightfully observed, 'The flag is more important than any individual.'
It is therefore becoming evident that the Communist Party has morphed from an ideological party into a more stable party of government, based on competitive, yet collective, meritocracy with an institutionalized and clearer leadership transition system. Nothing shows this better than the much smoother power transition from former President Jiang to President Hu and the ushering in of a new leadership line-up in this Party Congress.
'Scientific Outlook on Development'
But what is the CPC government for? It goes without saying that as inequalities inside China are becoming more acute, the government cannot survive for long without continuing to improve the well-being of most (rather than some) of the people, particularly the impoverished peasants, who, after all, were the original staunch supporters of the CPC and still represent the majority of the Chinese people. In the light of critical challenges of corruption, pollution, and China's internal and external economic imbalances, it is no surprise that the concept of 'Scientific Outlook on Development' advanced by President Hu is now being written into the Party's Constitution. This stresses the overriding need for continuous development, a more people-based, law-based and more democratic style of governance, a scientific approach to decision-making, and coordinated and sustainable development. It is interesting that at the Party Congress, President Hu mentioned the need for public hearings for major legislations. The recently enacted Property Law, for example, involved a long process over two years of debate and wide-ranging grass-root consultations, including public hearings.
In keeping with this 'Scientific Outlook', there is already a quiet revolution to professionalise China's management and ruling cadres through more local and overseas training, often in partnership with leading universities in the US, Europe and Singapore. In January 2002, China's State Council signed an agreement with Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and the School of Public Policy and Management of Beijing's Tsinghua University to implement an on-going 'Harvard Project'. This has already trained 300 high-ranking officials from China's ministries, commissions and provincial governments in three-month-long training courses. Their case studies are compiled into materials for training of other officials at Tsinghua and other local universities. About 40,000 officials at various levels are now being sent overseas for training each year. Some of this training includes a six-month job-shadowing with their foreign official counterparts. Ministers with overseas study background include the Foreign Minister, the Health Minister, the Education Minister, the Science and Technology Minister, the Director of the State Intellectual Property Office, and the President of the People's Bank of China. Likewise, the 17th Party Congress has witnessed an increase in the percentage of younger and university-educated delegates (alongside more female and ethnic minority delegates).
The 'Scientific Outlook on Development' embodies China's often-quoted mantra of Harmony. The philosophy of Harmony dates back to Confucianism, which set great store on harmony within the self, within the family, between different sectors in the same society, between nations and between man and nature. (Confucianism, my ATCA article of 7 June, 2006.) China is reviving a global interest in Confucianism and the concept of a 'Harmonious World', as these concepts, based on balance, inclusiveness, and cooperation despite disagreement, are considered to be of increasing modern relevance both internally and internationally. They are seen to be applicable conceptually to such strategic challenges as inequalities, social justice, environmental over-exploitation, imbalance between consumption and export, over-heating and over-capacity, international conflict resolution, and multilateralism.
Democracy
It has been reported that President Hu mentioned the D-word no less than 60 times in his report to the Party Congress. What he meant, of course, is not Western democracy, but 'socialist' democracy with Chinese characteristics, especially 'intra-Party democracy'. This envisages collective leadership with more clearly defined divisions of responsibility, greater accountability, and oversight of central committees by plenary Party sessions at all levels. More interestingly, apart from widespread village-level direct elections, the CPC is experimenting with direct elections of Party chiefs in Hubei Province and in Chongqing, (the world's largest megapolis with a population of 30 million), in Sichuan Province.
Still, a swallow does not a summer make and it is early days yet. What is more, it is not evident that democracy is something that can always be imposed (as in the case of Iraq). Nor have newly democratized countries generally proved to perform better according to the United Nations Development Index, compared with non-democratic countries at similar levels of development. China, in fact, clearly outperforms all other countries in similarly levels of development under virtually all indicators (Randall Peerenboom, 2007, China Modernizes, Oxford University Press).
No doubt, the debate, both inside and outside China, will go on as to how best to advance democracy and what form of democracy would suit which countries at a given stage of development with any given set of political, economic, cultural and social circumstances. There may not be a black-and-white answer. For example, the outcome of the related debate between the so-called Washington Consensus and the Beijing Consensus remains mixed at best.
Climate Chaos
With her teeming masses, China needs to generate 24 million jobs a year just to stay even. When the Party Congress re-affirmed the importance of economic growth, the world was a little nervous as to what this would mean to Climate Chaos. In addition to mandated unit energy input and emission reduction targets (which are so far falling behind), China's 11th Five Year Plan calls for doubling renewable energy generation to 15% of total energy needs by 2020. The Law on Renewable Energies has been enacted. Rules were promulgated on 1 August this year requiring power distributors to include electricity in their grids from renewable energies, including hydropower, wind, biomass, geothermal and solar energies. At a later stage, discussions are expected on the share of renewable energies in the total electricity output.
In 2005, China's renewable energy consumption was more than 166 million Tonnes of Coal Equivalent (TCE) or 7.5% of total energy consumed. By 2010, renewable energy is expected to reach 270 million TCE, of which hydropower would account for 180 million kW, wind power 5 million kW, biomass power 5.5 million kW, and solar power 300,000 kW. Production of ethanol fuel is expected to grow to 2 million tonnes, bio-diesel 200,000 tonnes, and methane fuel 19 billion cubic meters (Beijing Review, 13 September, 2007).
In view of the stark reality of increasing global constraints and instability of energy and other resources, the Chinese leadership has repeatedly stressed the imperative of switching to a more energy-conserving and environment-friendly model of development, if only as a matter of self-survival. Against China's dramatic economic achievements in recent years, President Hu at the Party Congress reminded cadres of the need to remain 'sobre' as China's current development is 'low-level, incomplete, and unbalanced'. It is sobering, for example, to note that in spite of China's skyrocketing growth, her GDP per capita still ranks below 100 in the world, amongst Africa's poorest nations. Even by 2027/8, when China's GDP is expected to match the US (Goldman Sach's graph in The Economist, 6 July, 2007), her GDP per capita would still equate to a moderately developing country.
As profit margins of energy-intensive OEM exports are becoming wafer-thin, China is already trying to catch up in building a Nation of Innovation. This means building her own proprietary technologies and international brands, speeding up research and development in such areas as live sciences, environmental technologies and aeronautics, promoting creative industries, IT and business outsourcing and financial services. This vision of diversifying from material-dependent output is in keeping with the zeitgeist that the new global economy is increasingly driven by 'conceptual output', which is characterised by 'constant, and often negligible marginal cost' and much reduced physical material input for a unit of output (Alan Greenspan, 2007, The Age of Turbulence - Adventures in a New World, Penguin Books).
Conclusion
China's leadership is becoming younger, more professionalized and institutionalized as the CPC continues to re-invent itself to move with the times. Its aim remains to build an all-rounded, moderately well-off society in the coming decades, in time to lay a strong economic foundation to shoulder the looming social and economic burden of an aging population. For this she needs to maintain a benign internal and external environment. She can ill afford any major domestic or international turmoil. Hence her mantra of 'Peaceful Development' and 'Harmony'. According to the Asian Development Bank (China Office), at an annual growth of above 7.2% China will be able to achieve her target of quadrupling her 2000 GDP to attain a per capita GDP of USD 3,000 by 2020. The Boston Consulting Group has just released a report highlighting that China is set to become the world's second largest consumer market by 2015. This tallies with earlier studies by Credit Suisse (Jonathan Garner, 2005, The Rise of the Chinese Consumer - Theory and Evidence, John Wiley and Sons). China's civil society has become much more vibrant with some 250,000 NGOs working on a host of civic issues including the environment (in partnership with the government). There are now some 36 million blog websites (albeit still controlled in regard to a handful of remaining politically sensitive subject areas). It has been estimated that China has over 80 million Christians, including those belonging to non-state Catholic churches (David Aikman, 2003, Jesus in Beijing, Monarch Books). With a population the size of a fifth of mankind beset with a multitude of internal and external challenges, the vision of China's leadership is often hard pushed to match reality. The prognosis, nevertheless, appears reasonably promising.
Andrew K P Leung, SBS, FRSA
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com
