CHINAwatch

China's Sichuan earthquake shakes the world

On 12 May at 2.28 p.m. local time, I was on a direct train to Guangzhou, when a catastrophic earthquake, later upgraded to 8 on the Richter Scale, devastated Sichuan and some areas in neighboring provinces, leaving millions homeless and over 80,000 dead or unaccounted for.

According to the Information Office of the State Council on 21 May, the death toll had reached 41,353 (later revised to 55,239) with 274,683 injured and 32,666 still missing. So far a total of 6,452 survivors had been unearthed from the rubbles with 396,811 rescued or evacuated.

When CNBC Europe emailed me about the economic impact of this disaster, I gave the following take:

(a) The earthquake is more severe than the last big one at Tangshan on 28 July, 1976. It has now affected an area of some 100,000 sq km. One of the 'rice bags' of China, Sichuan accounts for 9.2% of China's grain output and 9.4% of China's rice output. But most of the affected areas are hilly rural villages representing only a small percentage of Sichuan’s agricultural production. Moreover, China has built up a huge rice and grain reserve which should moderate any upward pressure on food prices. In any case, such impact is likely to be temporary as China is a net food importer.

(b) Albeit one of China’s largest provinces, Sichuan's contribution to China's GDP is only about 3.5% , accounting for 1% of China's export. The Chinese authorities have so far estimated the direct physical loss at about US$10 billion. Analysts have figured that the overall economic impact is likely to be in the range of 0.2 -0.7% of China’s GDP.

(c) As part of the leadership's full-throttled response, there will be vigorous infrastructural investments in reconstruction. These will have a significant positive GDP contribution, though at the expense of sustaining higher steel and concrete prices.

(d) Overall inflation in China is expected to moderate in the second half of 2008 as a result of the cooling of the world economy. In keeping with a tightening policy, Premier Wen has since ordered a cut of 5% in all government budgets, particularly in areas of non-essential expenditure, in order to pay for the reconstruction.

(e) Amidst slower global economic growth and rising commodity prices in 2008, China's overall GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 9 or even 8%. Nevertheless, this would still be the envy of many countries.

The way this earthquake has shaken China and the rest of the world is not so much the scale of its economic impact or loss of lives and property. It is how the Chinese leadership and the Chinese people have remarkably risen to this colossal adversity.

There was instantaneous 24-hour TV coverage across the country with massive press reports and the international media given unprecedented free access. Premier Wen flew to the scene within four hours and went straight near the epicenter. Over 100,000 soldiers of the PLA were  mobilized to save lives and provide emergency relief amidst the rubbles. Psychological counselling teams were working around the clock on deprived children and relatives. The entire nation of volunteers, many leaving their jobs, hurried to give a hand. Almost immediately, as many as 57 civic groups were mobilized online and offline with a coordination office set up in Chengdu.  There were long queues in many cities to donate blood. Voluntary cash and material donations came pouring in across the country and from the Chinese Diaspora, now reaching $2 billon and counting. Similar support along with rescue teams has been arriving from many governments around the world, including the US, EU, Russia, Japan, the Middle East, South America, and Africa.

For the first time for a natural disaster, the nation went into an official three-day national mourning from 19 – 21 May, with all national flags flown at half-mast. All the flags at the United Nations were also flown half-mast in support.There was a three-minute silence on the first day to pay respect to the dead. As a fifth of mankind of 1.3 billion people from all walks of life stood in grim silence, few managed to suppress their tears. Fresh in their minds were vivid scenes of courage and compassion, some not widely reported in the West:

(a) A dead young mother was unearthed still breast-feeding her baby who has survived in her arms.

(b) A beautiful young girl who had just realized her ambition of being a primary school teacher was found dead protecting four students with her body, leaving behind a photo album full of her now- extinguished dreams and aspirations.

(c) A young Chinese student buried in the rubble for days asked for a cold can of Coca Cola on being discovered by rescuers and then had to have both his legs amputated. When volunteers greeted him with tears after the surgery, he just asked them not to cry and said he was alright.

(d) A father was waiting to be removed from tons of concrete, saying to his anxious wife that all he wanted for the rest of his life was to be with her and their child. Those were his last words.

(e) Right in the epicenter, the decimated Beichuan Middle School re-opened with the National Anthem on 19 May in make-shift premises for its grief-stricken surviving students, many of whom lost their parents and close relatives.

There are many, many more of these moving true-life scenes, watched real-time on television: scenes of heroism, compassion, humanity and fortitude that have dramatically united China as a country and changed perceptions of China across the world.

As the whole of China is gearing up to the Beijing Olympics this summer, she stands an even better chance of making this the best Olympics ever as world opinions have markedly softened towards her in the wake of this historic catastrophe. From the highest leaders to the ordinary citizens, China's response of great perseverance, compassion, courage, dedication, unity, transparency and efficiency has won hearts and minds both inside and outside China. Across the world, there has been an outpouring of heartfelt support, empathy and praise. All this is likely to make the Chinese people more poised and fortified to face the many challenges of building a better tomorrow.

Andrew K P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com         

How the Olympic Torch Relay inflamed Chinese nationalism

Following the undignified public reception of China’s Olympic Torch Relay in London, Paris and San Francisco, Chinese blogs and chatrooms around the world were ablaze with passion and fury at what was perceived as the West’s deliberate rubbishing of China’s national pride. What was perceived as the West media’s biased and sometimes erroneous reporting added to the sense of injustice. For example, CNN had to tender an uncharacteristic apology because their images of alleged use of force against protesters by Chinese police were actually taken in Nepal. When BBC was showing a Lhasa official clearly saying in Putonghua ‘Rioters disrupting the relay will be dealt with according to the law’, the English voice-over was ‘We will show no mercy’. For what had been running the gauntlet of unruly protests and media aspersions is more than the Olympics Torch Relay. It is not even the issues of Tibet separatism or China’s human rights. It is nothing less than the restored pride of a modern China after centuries of foreign humiliation.

To the vast majority of Chinese, Tibet is and has long been an inseparable part of China. To see so many Western protesters demanding separatism when the Dalai Lama is openly against it smacks of opportunism. Some protestors admitted that they were hirelings. Some do not even know where Tibet is. Much of the West’s commentaries revealed at best a glaring economy with the truth if not total ignorance of Tibet’s long history in the context of China as a nation. A rare article by Foster Stockwell on Tibet entitled Myth and Reality was published online in the Telegraph dated 5 March 2008 (http://my.telegraph.co.uk/elle/march_2008/myth_and_reality_of_tibet.htm )

A PEW Global Attitude Survey in June 2006 found that 81% of the Chinese were satisfied with the state of their nation, compared with 29% for Americans and 35% for Britons. Indeed, the Chinese satisfaction figure increased from 48% in 2002 to 72% in 2005. Although the survey may be biased towards urbanites, this is hardly a picture of suppressed people under a repressive regime as painted by some of the West’s commentators.

After centuries of blood and tears of foreign aggression and partition, the vast majority of the Chinese people really love their country, warts and all. They are proud of China’s modern achievements and feel able to hold their heads a little higher in the world. They don’t understand why a non-confrontational China preaching a philosophy of Harmony should attract so much animosity from the West.

An anonymous poem entitled ‘What do you want from us?’ as quoted in one of the Chinese blogs best captures the flavor of the emotions.  'When we toil for your goods, you blame us for the pollution. When we loan you our hard-earned cash, you blame us for your debt. When we multiply, you blame us for consuming the planet. When we restrict our numbers, you blame us for violating human rights'.

Most of the Chinese supporters at the scene are overseas university students. Many are studying for advanced degrees in humanities in some of the world’s best universities. They can’t  all be brain-washed by the Chinese Communist Party, as some Western media appeared to think.

However desirable, it would be naïve to think that the Olympics could ever be separated from politics. It would be unrealistic to expect the Western media to be totally unbiased. It is fair to say that if you go near the kitchen, you have to stand the heat. It would also be unrealistic to expect the West not to harbour a sense of fear, misgivings or unease at a Rising China with a different ideology and a different approach to international politics. These legitimate concerns underline most of the West’s media commentaries.

As I write, the wave of nationalistic boycotts against Carrefour in China has been sweeping across many provinces. Fresh in the mind are TV footages of how Jin Jing, China’s paralympian girl in a wheel chair, was attacked during the Torch Relay in Paris. As forewarned by Peter Hayes Gries (China’s New Nationalism, University of California Press, 2005), unfair and selective demonization could stoke China’s vengeful nationalism. Indeed, the Chinese leadership is very much alive to these dangers. As the tide of nationalism was beginning to appear, the official media immediately called for calm and rational thinking. The barrage of the West’s negative reporting was compared to ‘rains before the rainbow’, extolling citizens to turn their patriotic zeal to continuing building the country’s economy. Much more direct supervision involving China’s security police was later reported in the Financial Times of 2 May.

With a host of pressing internal and external challenges, including inequalities, unbalanced development, pollution, inflation, corruption and a looming aging population profile, China needs all the help she can get in an increasingly inter-dependent world to maintain a relatively benign internal and external environment in the coming decades, so that she can realize her ambition of achieving a middle-income economy by mid-century. While nationalism has its values, the risks of it getting out of hand are far too great. But in the long run, with the Me Generation of the ‘Little Emperors’ (the product of China’s One Child Policy) coming to their own, mere control and suppression of rising nationalism cannot be the answer. A better way has to be found for the Chinese people to live down their historical demons and to embrace a truly diverse and open civil society in the Global Village.

Andrew K P Leung, SBS, FRSA

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com