That's the headline of an article dated 30 June in YaleGlobal Online by Richard Bush, Director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies and a senior fellow of foreign policy with the Brookings Institution. Click here
Back in 2003, China commissioned a study on ‘Rise of the Great Powers’ during the past 500 years. The study involved interviewing a variety of leading Chinese scholars and Western thinkers. The conclusion emphasized ‘the importance of (a) internal unity; (b) market mechanisms; (c) related ideological, scientific, and institutional innovation; and (d) international peace.’ The outcome was made into a popular TV series broadcast nationwide and is available in DVDs. Click here
Deng Xiaoping’s famous 24-character dictum used to inform China’s foreign policy (“Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capabilities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.”) This policy of ‘Nursing strengths behind a low-profile’ has become increasingly challenged. In a world turning more multi-polar, China with growing geopolitical and geo-economic gravitas is increasingly expected to play a more proactive role as a ‘Responsible Stakeholder’. Moreover, this dictum risks giving the misguided impression that China harbors some sinister ambitions behind a low-profile façade. So there is a growing perception that this ‘lying-low’ foreign policy seems to be giving way to a more assertive stance.
Elizabeth Economy , C. V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that China is now ‘The Game Changer’, seeking to remake global norms and institutions. ‘China is transforming the world as it transforms itself. Never mind notions of a responsible stakeholder; China has become a revolutionary power.’ In particular as China surges ahead to create a greener and more urban economy, her mercantilist trade and investment practices as her approach to what the West regards as universal human values are often seen to be at odds with international norms. Miss Economy advocates that America’s long-term strategic objectives need to be carefully defined with a view to engaging China both bilaterally and multi-nationally towards those objectives. Click here
Notwithstanding China’s seemingly inexorable rise, her GDP per capita, now ranking about 100th, is destined to be no higher than a middle-income country like Turkey even by 2050, when China’s economy could be 70% bigger than the US or India (by then ranking neck-to-neck). Such is the paradox of a population the size of a fifth of mankind. Moreover, China’s economic trajectory is by no means pre-ordained, beset as she is by a rising host of domestic and global resource, environmental, social, technological, economic and political constraints. At the end of the day, China’s aging population profile means that she is more likely to get old before she becomes rich. Moreover, China's comprehensive military power is generally perceived to be some 30 years behind the the United States, including integrated fire-power, technology, expertise, training, surveillance, logistics, response time, and global outreach.
China has a long and well-established Confucian culture of non-confrontation and harmony – harmony within one’s individual being, within the family, within the society, within the nation, between peoples and between Man and Nature. In an Age of Scarcity and ecological threats, there is no more critical time in history when this philosophy should continue to inform China’s developmental trajectory. What is equally if not more important is that a zero-sum thinking by China or the West will reinforce itself in a classic ‘Security Dilemma’, which could only lead to global catastrophe. Perhaps the challenge lies in how China’s own legitimate national interests and aspirations, with her unique historical, cultural, socio-economic and political background, can best be accommodated in engaging China together to re-shape a new world order for a better tomorrow for all.
Best regards,
Andrew
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