After Empire, America and China have to find their feet

“Three Cheers for Decline” is the title of an article dated 9 August 2011 published in Foreign Policy by Charles Kennedy, columnist of Foreign Policy, senior fellow at the Centre for Global Development, and Schwartz fellow at the New America Foundation. Click here

Charles Kennedy argues that there is a time for empires to retreat and perhaps enjoy a new status in an inter-dependent and multi-polar world as a more equal and less dominant partner, drawing on historical lessons of ultimate empire overreach as in the case of Britain.

This is a very provocative article coming as it is in the midst of much popular hype and angst. The hype is that America is no longer a leading superpower, declining as it must against the limits of empire-overreach.  Paul Kennedy’s ‘The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers’ (Vintage Books, Random House, New York,1989) is re-gaining popularity. The angst is an anxious, subconcious reflex action to try somehow to perpetuate American dominance in a transformed world.

As for China, way back in 2005-6, the country's leadership already commissioned a wide-ranging study titled ‘The Rise of Great Powers’, involving many face-to-face interviews with world leaders and thinkers, including Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, Joseph Stiglitz, and Paul Kennedy. Many lessons and pitfalls of empires from this study are laid bare in a 12-part national TV series (in Chinese), made available on DVD. It is evident that China is set to rise not beyond Turkey in per capita GDP terms even by mid-century. In face of  myriad domestic and global challenges during her development trajectory, China has more than enough to cope with than to indulge in the illusion of empires.

Nor, for that matter, would empires necessarily work. Dilip Hiro’s book, "After Empire: The Birth of a Multipolar World", Nation Books , 2009, is perhaps instructive. Click here for an excerpt. Nevertheless, China's Rise is indisputable and is raising alarm bells across the globe. My note 'The great American Downgrade : What would China do and what are its long-term implications" may throw some light on how China is likely to fit into this changed multi-polar world. Click here

Best regards,

Andrew