Gordon Chang has penned a lengthy article on China's rapidly changing society with vibrant thoughts, aspirations, discourse, and often civic action in opposition to politcal dicktats. He refers to this as "China's unstoppable billion" who can be the harbinger of regime change or at least something new. "In China today, almost anything is possible. And that means, just about everything will happen", he concludes. Click here
The article reveals the contradictions in China as much as those in its own arguments.
One side of the picture is a billion people getting used to behaving with much more personal freedom, disobeying or finding ways to ignore government diktats. The other side is a leadership trying to exercise authoritarianism and repression.
It begs the question that if the repression is so severe, there simply won't be so much personal freedom as depicted. On the other hand, if there is indeed such a rising tide of individual freedom, it must mean that the government is becoming much less repressive than it seems.
Indeed, both Hu and Wen have realized that former President Jiang Zemin's pro-business policies alone won't ensure the stability of the Party as the society is becoming increasingly unequal. They have initiated the policy of "People-based Governance", trying to make government policies more responsive and relying more on public feedback, often through the internet. They have also formulated the pro-people change in direction in the latest Five Year Plan (2011-15).
As highlighted in the article, public opionions are playing a more and more important role, even in sentencing policies. Even projects decided by the State Council are now known to be allowed to retract in the light of public outcry. This is not exactly a picture of die-hard totalitarian repression.
It also doesn't ring true that Hu and Wen tried to curb foreign investment or roll back China's globalization. Indeed, under their tutelage, China has become the world's favourite investment destination and China's economy has become the world's second largest. According to The Economist (31 December 2011), China's economy is set to overtake that of the United States by most measures by 2018. Click here
The stellar growth has spawn a massive middle class, rising worker wages, and much higher farmers's disposable income. In the process, China's place in the world has gained gravitas. For the first time in over a century, the Chinese people can hold their heads high in the world. The Party's credibility has hugely benefited as a result.
Despite limited no-go areas where repression no doubt continues to apply, and a rising number of unrests caused by isolated local governance failures, the overall landscape is hardly a tinder-box for spantaneous combustion.
But the article is absolutely right in highlighting the rise of spontaneous citizen action worldwide, including the Arab Spring, empowered by the internet and social media networks. The recent Occupy Moverment started in Wall Street is another example spreading across the globe. Even Russia is experiencing this tide of rising aspirations and citizen protests. There is no doubt that China's leadership is on its toes.
It is correct to say that the Chinese people are becoming an unstoppable force in the world, whose creativity and aspirations have been unleached partly by a Party continuing seeking to reform and re-invent itself. The degree of openness and personal freedom in China nowadays would be unthinkable a few decades ago.
But China is in no hurry to copy the Western model of multi-party confrontational democracy, which is becoming dysfunctional in America, the very vanguard of this type of democracy where a small minority of powerful vested interests could shortchange the interests of the majority.
In an era of global challenges and paradigm shifts, the Communist Party of China is changing its policies and will need to redouble its efforts to reform itself. There may be a mismatch in the speed of change during different stages of China's development. However there is no convincing evidence that the Party will necessarily fail to harness the unstoppable force for good of the Chinese people.
Best regards,
Andrew
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com
