Would war clouds over Iran precipitate WW3?

War drums seem to be beating for military action against Iran as international pressures are being stepped up to impose more draconian sanctions on Iran and two US aircraft carrier battle groups are being deployed to the Persian Gulf.

Any conflict in the Gulf may as the Iranians threaten, lead to a closure of the choke point of the Strait of Hormuz where 40% of world energy shipping and a far higher percentage of China’s energy supplies must pass.

It is no wonder that Premier Wen chose to pay a rare high-level 6-day visit (14-19 January) to the Middle East, the source of about 60% of China’s oil supplies,  during these sensitive times. The visit by a Chinese premier to Saudi Arabia was the first in 21 years while the visits to the UAE and Qatar were the first ever by a Chinese premier.

A raft of $16 billion-worth of agreements were signed covering trade, energy, infrastructure, finance and culture, including a $5.6 billion first-ever currency swap with the Arab countries in an on-going process to internationalize the Chinese yuan, a$8.5 billion deal with Saudi Aramco for a joint venture refinery to become operational in 2014, and an agreement  between Abu Dhabai National  Oil Company (Adnoc) and the China National Petroleum Corp to develop  upstream projects.

Also on the cards was an attempt to accelerate ongoing negotiations for a free trade agreement between China and the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which was launched in July 2004.

Nevertheless, the Iranian question, and the security of passage for China’s critical oil supplies, was never far from the top of the agenda.

The Premier reaffirmed China’s opposition to Iran developing nuclear weapons and China’s willingness to work with concerned parties to establish a nuclear- free Middle East, saying that China will not trade its principles for profits.

However, he also took care to reiterate the position of many other countries, that legitimate trade with Iran should be protected rather than being used as a weapon which could jeopardize the normal international order. He emphasized that the issue of an Iranian nuclear threat should be resolved through diplomatic channels involving the Six-party diplomatic group made up of the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany.

Almost on cue, on 19 January, Iran declared that she is ready to resume the talks with the “Iran-six”, agreeing to use Turkey as an intermediary venue.

Notwithstanding increasing tension in the Gulf , fuelled by growing hardline Israeli pressure, a war-wary American electorate and indeed the US Military are unlikely to by enthusiastic about a war on Iran, however triggered, which may lead to uncontrollable escalations and consequences across and beyond the region, particularly in the wake of recent US defence budget cuts and restraints.

So it may be unnecessary to dismiss the kind of alarmism about a world war to be triggered over Iran as posted on The Daily Squib, a British satirical publication established in 1862. In a posting dated 17 November 2011, entitled “If you can’t hear the drums of war, you must be deaf”, a Machiavellian Henry Kissinger was portrayed as rubbing his hands in glee that by provoking Russia and China into a world war with the United States over Iran, after the dust (and blood) has settled, the United States with its peerless war machine would emerge to reign supreme over the entire world. Click here

First, the satire gave me much mirth at the thought that someone as astute as dear old Henry Kissinger would give such a nonsensical interview.

Second, with US and Russian aircraft carriers calling in the Gulf, those who may think the story is at least plausible may run the risk of under-rating the collective intelligence of China and Russia.

In case of a US-provoked War on Iran, it is by no means certain that Russia or China or both would fall into the trap of being sucked into a WW3.

A more probable outcome would be that consistent with their common approaches to conflict resolution, both countries would condemn the military intervention as illegal under UN rules and would rally support from the war-adverse international community.

At the same time, both countries would act as good guys in mediating the military conflict through diplomatic and other channels while watching the US dragging herself into a much worse fate than Iraq at a time when the US has become less able financially, economically, and politically to embark on a war that would lead to world Armageddon.

Instead of the satirical outcome of a new era of US world dominance, the more likely outcome would be that the United States would only hasten its decline of world leadership, economically, financially, and morally.

So, let’s hope that wiser heads will prevail over Iran.

Perhaps it may be relevant to recall whether the former USSR or Vietnam changed their regimes as a result of US military action.

It may also serve as food for thought to borrow the concluding reference to Thomas Jefferson in Christopher Treble’s book “The Power Problem – How American Military Dominance Makes Us Less Safe, Less Prosperous, and Less Free”, Cornell University Press, 2009.

The Founding Father “predicted that one day, in the not too distant future, Americans “may shake a rod over the heads of all, which may make the stoutest of them tremble. But I hope our wisdom will grow with our power, and teach us, that the less we use our power, the greater it will be.”

Best regards,

Andrew

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com

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