YaleGlobal Online runs a two-part series on China's Challenges.
PART I is an insightful summary by Thomas Fingar dated 16 January, 2012. Click here The following addional observations may be helpful -
(a) The imbalances of less developed regions, low-cost (and energy-intensive) production and inadequate domestic consumption are being vigorously redressed in the current transformational Five Year Plan (2011-15). Don't expect miracles and a smooth ride, but like the China story of the past three decades, do not dismiss too soon the ability of the Party to achieve surprising outcomes.
(b) The growing international competition from other fast-developing emerging economies is in a way welcome as this would accelerate the transformation outlined in (a) above.
(c) China's growing "demographic deficit" of an aging population profile is well-rehearsed . For now, there is still a huge pool of young workforce from the countryside. But the built-in demographics remains an albatross around China's neck. The One-Child Policy is already being modified for families of both single-child spouses. Trust the Party to press the button to abandon the Policy when the time comes.
(d) Politics- China is a paradox of both centralization and de-centralization, each having its advantages and problems. Provincial party secretaries and governors presiding over the development and livelihood of populations the size of many mid-sized countries wield unthinkable powers compared to a Western democracy. Yet they have all earned their spurs through the ranks as part of the system beholden to the Party leadership in Beijing who, in turn, emerges from an essentially competitive, and well-tried, meritocratic system, a system not far from an ancient Chinese adage, "Those most able (note, not necessarily those popularly elected) should lead".
The Party is now headed by more highly-educated and much younger leaders (often with foreign postgraduate degrees) with years of proven track records through jobs in the provinces and ministries, including many with international exposure. Those at the top know that the Party’s survival depends on its continued ability to reform and change with the times.
The Party is trying to move towards a model of governance for the people (though not yet of or by the people). The challenges remain in the nurture of a genuinely representative electoral system starting at the village level (covering the vast proportion of the population) and the development of a more impartial judiciary system.
So far with a vibrant economy, the Party has managed to deliver the goods and still enjoys a relatively high level (over 80%) of popularity ratings, according to a PEW opinion survey in 2010.
But serious problems are bubbling, including unbridled corruption, power abuse, environmental degradation, water and other resource constraints, growing inequalities, rising levels of discontent and aspirations of a more individualistic “Generation – W (Web)” in an age of spontaneous, internet-enabled citizenry actions across the globe. (The Rise of Generation W(eb)" Chapter 1 in "China Inside Out", Bill Dodson, John Wile & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd, 2011)
On the economic front, China is set to grow on average at a more stainable pace of about 7% annually. China’s Academy of Social Science has recently put the growth rate at 9% for 2012. While it may be too early to predict a “ Coming Collapse of China”, as the redoubtable Gordon Chang again does, all bets will remain open on the likely outcome of China’s challenging trajectory during the next few decades.
PART II is an article dated 18 January 2012 by Borje Ljunggren, revolving around a recent tale-telling mass protest in Wukan Village. Click here
The Wukan event is in many ways another milestone in China's trajectory. Mass protests and unrests, as the article depicts, are not uncommon in China and are in fact rising. But this follows on an August mass protest in Dalian which resulted in a swift shutdown of a government-sanctioned chemical plant project. Click here
What is more, the incident in Wukan, a small village in the Donghan Township in Guangdong province, saw Wang Yang, provincial party secretary (above the rank of provincial governor) swiftly intervene. Wang is a rising star tipped to make it to the Party politburo (China's state cabinet). Not only did he openly acknowledge that the villagers' complaints were legitmate, he detained various senior village officials for disciplinary investigations and basically acceded to virtually all of the villagers' demands. He further legitimized the status of the well-organised citizenry body and later appointed its leader as the secretary of a preparatory committee to lead the re-election of a new village committee in place of the current one which is being accused of land grabs and corruption. Click here
"After a deal was reached, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao in Beijing declared: “We can no longer sacrifice farmers’ land ownership right to reduce urbanization and industrialization costs,” the YaleGlobal article reports.
While it is unlikely that Beijing would choose to weaken the Party's authority by repeating this surprising response too often, there is little doubt that the Wukan incident is regarded by the current leadership, and almost definitely by the next one, as the defining clarion call to improve the Party's governance, including the issue of politicaly powerful vested commercial interests.
The urgency is particularly acute at the local, especially the village level, where officials are less well-trained and where, as the Chinese adage goes, "The mountains are high and the emperor far away."
The need for reform and improvement has become even more pressing in response to the rising aspirations of an internet and more individualistic generation who are part and parcel of a much needed rising middle class to balance China's economy towards a more consumption-oriented model.
Best regards,
Andrew
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com
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