CHINAwatch

China’s Economic Success and its Ideological Implications for the World Order

The following is a 7,442-word Research Paper on the above topic.

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The Dalai Lama's visit to the UK and geopolitics in the South China Sea - A debate on Voice of Russia in London

A panel debate on 19 June, 2012 with Voice of Russia in London on the diplomatic tussle between China and Britain over Dalai Lama's visit to the UK and geopolitics in the South China Sea with America's "Pivot to Asia".

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China's epoch-defining political line-up

(Chinese Communist) "Party polls 370 members on choice of top leaders - Experimental ballot may well influence how future succession processes are conducted, insiders say." South China Morning Post, 8 June, 2012. Click here

It may be a contradiction in terms but this is a definitive step towards what is called "intra-party democracy".

China's development model is very different from the West, starting from some seventy years ago with a huge population plagued by centuries of turmoil, famine, political strife and foreign subjugation.

Nor is China convinced that there is only one Western model of democracy that must be downloaded by all.

What underpins China's economic miracle so far is relative internal stability, driven by continuous economic growth managed by generations of technocrats.

But this model is beginning to frail as China's rising, more educated middle class can no longer be governed by the same model without at least some urgent modifications.

The current move is likely to be the first component. To start with, what hopes to be achieved is a system of meritocracy with layers of intra-party support initially down to the levels that really matter for the whole country, i.e. the Cental Committee of 370 rising stars who have been elevated to their present positions through years of track record of political and administrative skills through the provinces.

This is likely to be supported by more open, transparent and fair village elections covering half of China's population, perhaps after the bold model at Wukan recently championed by Wang Yang, Guangdong party-secretary. If he makes it to the top leadership, the Politburo Standing Committee, this may be another sign that his model will be given a further push.

There is also some speculation that Beijing may adopt a more liberal interpretation of the 1989 events on Tiananmen Square. An indicator is who will replace the retiring top leaders in charge of public security and national propaganda. This would be a sign of movement towards a more liberal and inclusive society.

However, the inclusion of some rising stars like Wang Yan may well be balanced by the need to reduce the current size of the top leadership from nine to seven members. This may be deemed strategically vital to ensure a more decisive hand amongst the more powerful reformers in face of unprecedented domestic and international dynamics, including changing geo-economics and geopolitics.

So for China, if not for the rest of the world, the likely line-up of the next top leadership would be instructive. See the latest interesting tips in a separate article "Battle for Power" in the South China Morning Post of 8 June. Click here

For an overview of China's political system, a recent Congressional Research Service report dated 10 May, 2012 may prove educative. Click here This may be read in conjunction of my thinkpiece "How are China's top leaders selected and how stable is China's Communist Party?" Click here

The shape of things to come in China would be as much epoch-defining as what is happening around Europe, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacifc, Africa and the rest of the world, in an eventful 2012 and the decades that follow.