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September 17, 2012



"However, past prejudgments of China’s eventual collapse have repeatedly belied themselves..."

I hear this all the time from the Bulls, yet it repeats an old fallacy going back to Hume. As Russell put it

"The man who has fed the chicken every day throughout its life at last wrings its neck instead, showing that more refined views as to the uniformity of nature would have been useful to the chicken."

As we Bears must keep reminding the doe-in-the-woods optimists: China can't outsmart the laws of economics forever. It is following a familiar course and is running out of options. Anyone can see from historical trends it is hitting a pinch point. The day, the hour, no one can say, but THAT it will pay the price, is a certainty. Investors would be wise to heed this point.

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