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November 12, 2012


Chris Fraser

An interesting and timely article at a time of continuing political crisis in China where there is an argument that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)model is not changing fast enough and risks a degree of self immolation in the future. Prosperity brings its own threats to the current system and massive outflows of private cash to western safe havens, often coupled with immigration status for any "emergency" demonstrates the current lack of confidence among those who can afford this route.

Jesper Sydland

I think this is a very biased analysis and I am quite frustrated that Andrew was able to publish it in the SCMP. Yet somehow it also makes sense at the paper has embraced many pro-CCP panda hugging commentators in recent years. To argue that Andrew is ‘independent’ in a political sense, considering his close (business) links to the Chinese and the HKSAR governments, would however be shameful.

I agree that Pei and particularly Chang are obsessed with China's fall or more correctly the CCP's end, but I guess Andrew is not able to make this distinction due to his pro-CCP bias. This bias renders his 'considerations' worthless as they follow the usual lines of the CCP narrative: only the wise CCP and its selfless leadership can guarantee China's future and will create a new form of 'democracy' (no need to vote anymore, just get 'able' leaders or 'consult' the people)... reading the so-called evidence Andrew is providing is frustrating as it avoids giving us a balanced view and for example misses mentioning the limitations of the research cited e.g. Pew acknowledges this its 'sample is disproportionally urban'. But I guess we could not expect him to really bother with these things as he is on a mission to defend the CCP which will for sure bring his consultancy more money from China and pro-Chinese universities in the UK.

Andrew Leung

With due respect to Jesper's opinions above, first, virtually all of my clients are outside China and international, including institutional investors and foreign governments. They are unlikely to be attracted by pro-CCP bias.

Second, any doubters of my independence may benefit from a careful browsing of the numerous articles, research notes, commentaries, presentations, and independent media interviews on my website under Publications, CHINAwatch and What is New. They may then be in a better position to pass judgment on the scope, depth, insightfulness and, yes, independence of my opionions, which I do cherish jealously.

Third, whatever views offered on any of my views will be welcome. It is only through criticism in whatever form that one lives and learns.

Best regards,

Andrew K P Leung

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