While America is pivoting towards the East, China is quietly thinking of the opposite, to China's West in Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East, where there is less of a U.S.-dominated regional order and a greater convergence of common interests with China, according to an article in Foreign Policy dated 7 February, 2013 by Ms Yun Sun, visitng fellow at the Brookings Institution and formerly China analyst for the International Crisis Group in Beijing.
Ms Sun draws her inspiration from a "Marching West" strategy
advanced by Wang Jisi, dean of the School of
International Studies at Peking University and one of China's most influential
strategic thinkers, in a Chinese article in the Global Times of 17 October, 2012.
Ms Sun concludes, "By returning to its roots as a continental power, China might avoid further confrontation with the United States in East Asia, foster stability, and build a better relationship with Washington through cooperation in places such as Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is perhaps the ultimate manifestation of Chairman Mao Zedong's famous military strategy: "Where the enemy advances, we retreat. Where the enemy retreats, we pursue."
In fact, China had long started "re-balancing" well before the American Asian pivot. This has witnessed the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2001, which has since grown into a wide regional multi-dimensional forum including Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan as Full Members; Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan as Observers; Belarus, Sri Lanka, and Turkey as Dialogue Members; and ASEAN, CIS, and Turkmenistan as Guests. Most, not all, of these countries are to China's West, but all have deep Eastern or Oriental roots.
Ms Sun reported that Rear Adm. Yang Yi did not agree with China's Western shift as China's expansion into the Pacific and Indian oceans is "a prerequisite for the country to call itself a global great power".
What is important, however, is the reality that China simply cannot afford to relax influence in the Asia Pacific including the South China Sea, which is set to remain vital sea lanes for the nation's economic lifeblood, a region with vast energy reserves, and home to a number of sensitive territorial disputes with China's neighbours.
So if China is embarking on a strategic Westward re-balancing, it is unlikely to be at the expense of China's foothold in the Asia-Pacific, no matter how fraught with problems the latter region appears to be, Mao's famous military dictum notwithstanding.
Comments