CHINAwatch

What does Bo Xilai's "harsh" sentence tell us?

"Bo Xilai's cries of defiance after he is sentenced to life in prison for corruption", reports the South China Morning Post on 23 September here

If it were a mere case of corruption, embezzlement and abuse of power, the sentence appears a little harsh as there are no doubt many worse perpetrators who, so far, remain scot-free.

But then, much, much more is at stake. If someone has dared to scuttle the entire ship for his own gain, it is little wonder that all, whether friend or foe, would agree that the fellow should best be under lock and key for a little while.

Make no mistake. Bo's sudden denial of all charges at the eleventh hour was not an indication that a relatively lenient sentence was likely, as some pundits had surmised. Hence the surprise in some quarters at the verdict as it turned out. 

Bo's about-turn in detention was an indication that he had probably got wind of the likely harsh sentence and decided he might as well deny the main charges and try to divert attention by harping on his "love triangle" story. That way, he would be able to create an image of political persecution which may serve him well.

This is the stuff of Hollywood high drama, Chinese-style. You may wish to access the following for the political intrigue that went behind the scene -

"The Curious Case of Bo Xilai - Part II" here and "Trial of Bo Xilai - what is it all about?" here

Be that as it may, the Bo Xilai affair has now focused the mind of the entire leadership, that unless corruption of power and money is rooted out, the Party would be in great peril. Hence, Alexis de Tocquerville's "French Revolution" has been rumored to be doing the rounds in the top leadership. Indeed, the Chinese translation has become a national best-seller.

But Tocquerville's tome was also about how lofty ideals of the Revolution became forgotten and corrupted over time. President's Xi's appeal to the Party's old revolutionary roots of caring and working for the masses is no attempt to turn the clock back, but to explore a way forward, as the country is rapidly changing with a rising and more educated and enlightened middle-class.

Hence, the top leadership's launch of an across-the-board "Long March" against corruption, including recent cases involving a numebr of high-profile global companies. Click here  Read "Could this be the political reform Xi would kick-start?" here

How long can the Communist party survive in China?

So asks an article here in The Financial Times Magazine on 20 September, 2013. This question has been posed a number of times before. But is this time different - when China really stands at a crossroads, a historical inflexion point of China's Communist Party (CPC)? 

The answer is undoubtedly yes, this time is very different. Critical corruption and inequalities are sapping the credibility and any legitimacy of the Party. This happens at a time when the country is fast changing tack, towards a nation of consumers and more independently-minded middle class. China is churning out some 7 million university graduates a year. By 2030, China will have 200 million of them, more than the current entire workforce of the United States. The current mode of governance is near its sell-by date.

Against this foreboding mood of uncertainty are the following realities -

(a) While social unrest and cynicism are rising, there is no prevailing demand for regime change. Indeed, in the absence of any credible alternative regime that works, the common sentiments tend to side with "the devil you know". Besides, many are really proud of what the country has so far managed to achieve, against all odds, in so short a time. Successive longitudinal PEW Global Attitudes Surveys in China shows that the vast majority of the Chinese people remain generally satisfied with the Chinese government. This contrasts with the less satisfactory PEW ratings in a number of leading democracies.

(b) Recent explosive revelations, notably the Bo Xilai affair, have focused the Party's collective mind as its very survival is at stake. All factions and stakeholders in the highest echelons of the Party are now rallying behind President Xi to purge the Party of corruption and self-aggrandizement. Even bigger tigers than Bo are now rumored to be investigated. A sleuth of major structural, if not political, reforms, such the reform of State-Owned Enterprises and of the household registration system (hukou) which marginalizes the mass of migrant workers, are expected to be unveiled at the forthcoming Party Plenum in November. If all goes out, this should stand the Party in better stead.

(c) Although there are non-Communist political parties enshrined in China's Constitution, these, such as the Revolutionary Committee of the Kuomintang, the China Democratic League and the China Democratic National Construction Association, are miniscule organs with scant following. They cannot and have no wish to have any mandate to challenge the One-Party rule. Indeed, there is a lot of debate (within Party think-tanks such as the Party School) whether one-Party rules are ipso facto unstable. There are examples of inherently unstable countries with different political parties contesting to win elections. Likewise, there are those countries which have become a paragon of success in terms of people's well-being and national advancement (such as Singapore) where there is no prize guessing whether the same overwhelming Party will continue to hold sway.

Nevertheless, while China is not expected to copy Western models, the country will have to redouble her efforts to reform both economically, socially and politically. President Xi said as much at the start of the latest 18th Party Congress. Indeed, he used extreme language to describe the urgency "on pain of demise of the country and the Party"".

The tasks ahead are herculean and the road is likely to be bumpy. See my earlier analyses -"Is China Up to the Task" here and "Quest for the China Dream" here 

Let's keep our fingers crossed for the coming Party Plenum in November.

China’s economic success and its ideological implications for the world order

A presentation to the Royal Commonwealth Society in Hong Kong on 18 September, 2013

Download Event flyer - Abstract

Download Royal-commonwealth-society---chinas-economic-succcess-and-its-ideological-implications-for-the-world-order---18-sept-2013

Trial of Bo Xilai - what is it all about?

Straight talk on the intricacies of the historic trial on Voice of Russia in London on 22 August, 2013 in an impromptu radio interview whilst on vacation in Europe.

Download 22083013 BO TRIAL TX MP3