CHINAwatch

"The power struggle behind China’s corruption crackdown" - A Reuters Report

A detailed Reuters Special Report dated 23 May 2014 alleges that according to its sources, China’s leadership believes Zhou Yongkang, China’s former domestic security chief, was making a move to grab power during the 2012 leadership transition.

Download CHINA-CORRUPTION

Considering the amount of detail, Reuters sources must have deliberately leaked the maze of Zhou's corrupt network and political intrique to the Western media possibly in preparation for a formal trial of tbe biggest tiger in modern times threatening the very stability or even survival of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

By most accounts, the corruption investigations of Zhou Yongkang seem to be nearing the finale, widely expected to be unveiled in coming months.

For background to the Zhou Yongkang case and its intricate links to the Bo Xilai affair, please visit my earlier analysis "The curious case of Bo Xilai (Part II)" dated 12 April, 2012 here  It now seems that my prognosis more than two years ago is now finally being substantiated.

What's behind Russia's massive energy deal with China?

The huge energy deal enables Russia to supply 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China each year for 30 years under a contract valued in excess of US$400 billion overall. See a report of the South China Morning Post here

Before the deal was signed at the eleventh hour on 21 May, my live TV interview with RT on 20 May tried to pinpoint some of the geopolitical considerations involved on both sides and their impact on the world order.

Ascent of the RMB - A Roadmap as at May 2014

Further to my research paper "The Ascent of the RMB, the Chinese currency" dated Decemebr, 2013, a latest update is provided in a report by ASIFMA (Asia Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association) dated May, 2014. 

Download RMB Roadmap - May, 2014

This report outlines various routes whereby the RMB is rapidly attaining the position as a global currency for trade settlements. As the world's premier commodities consumer, China is well poised to have more energy contracts denominated in RMB. More and more of China's large number of trading partners are beginning to hold some RMB as a "de facto" reserve currency, even as the Chinese currency is not fully convertible.

Following reforms introduced at the 18th Party Congress Third Plenum, more liberalization of China's financial system is on track. This is now being accelerated by such schemes as the Shanghai Experimental Free Trade Zone, the China-Hong Kong Mutual Fund Recognition scheme and Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect pilot program.

By 2020, it is expected that the RMB capital account will have become basically fully open. While the greenback will still be the dominant international reserve currency, the RMB will have come close to being another international currency like the euro, the British Pound or the Japanese yen.
 

Mainland visitor's child urination incident in Hong Kong

My live interview on China 24 with CCTV Beijng broadcast on 27 April, 2014.Click here

(Move red bar at bottom of screen to recording indicator 10:33 to access start of my interview.)