Wikistrat is a proprietary cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy of which I am a Senior Analyst. It has just released a simulation report (October, 2014) looking at various scenarios over tensions in the East and South China Seas.
The following is the Report's Introduction -
""In recent years, the political situation in and around the East and South China Seas (ESCS) has become dramatically more complex. China’s growing power and increasing assertiveness have begun to worry many of the states thatmaintain claims to the waters, islands, and economic resources of the region. Meanwhile, the United States (U.S.)’s commitment to maintaining the international order it has established in East Asia has come into deep question.
A wide range of territorial disputes (among them the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, the Spratlys, and the Scarborough Shoal) could spark confrontation between neighboring states. In addition to their significant strategic importance, control of these areas carries great symbolic weight, and has the potential to grant access to significant energy resources.
Regional states have responded to growing tensions with rapid naval and aerospace modernization. China has upgraded the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) considerably over the last decade, as it has been developing new systems domestically and buying advanced weaponry from Russia. At the same time, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, and South Korea have also upgraded their military capabilities. Anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems have advanced to the point where some question the ability of the United States Navy (USN) to operate freely.
In June 2014, more than seventy Wikistrat analysts ran a crowdsourced simulation intended to examine the factors that could drive stability and instability in these contested waters. The scenarios and policy options these analysts developed highlight the complexity of the political and economic issues at stake in the ESCS.
Download Wikistrat Report-Heightened Tensions in the East and South China Seas
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