CHINAwatch

China-Russia energy pact and China’s energy dynamics

On 27 November, 2014, I spoke on the recent China-Russia energy deals and China's energy dynamics as they impact on Japan and the rest of the Asia-Pacific at a Windsor Energy Group event chaired by Lord Howell and hosted at the Japanese Embassy London by the Japanese Ambassador. 

My presentation was based on the following research note. 

Download China-russia-energy-pact-and-chinas-energy-dynamics

What Xi means by the "New Normal"?

In a speech on 9 November to CEO's at the APEC Summit in Beijing, President Xi expounded on what he meant in his recent references to the "New Normal" in China's development trajectory. 

This new connect can be characterized into the following COMPONENTS -

(a) permanent change from high-speed to moderately high-speed economic growth;

(b) continuous economic re-structuring -    

1. services and consumer demand to gradually become the mainstay of the economy;
2. continous narrowing of regional differences;
3. economic proportion of household incomes to continue rising;
4. greater sharing of fruits of economic development amongst the masses.

(c) change from investment-driven to innovation-driven.

The following BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES are likely to result -

(a) Even at around 7% average annual growth, China's economy will still be leading world growth;

(b) Growth will be more balanced, stable and multi-dimensional with new "Four Modernizations" - New industrialization, Digitization, Urbanization, and Agricultural modernization and greater reliance on domestic consumption to minimize exposure to external risks;

(c) Economic re-structuring already manifested in the first three quarters of 2014 

1. consumption overtaking investment as main contributor to GDP growth;
2. share of services at 46.7% overtaking manufacturing; 
3. high and new technologies, including machinery manufacturing registered higher rates of growth compared with industrial averages; and 
4. government streamlining and de-regulation have resulted in greater market vitality with newly-registered enterprises growing at 60% compared with previous year.

The country must CONTINUE TO ADAPT to the "New Normal" in the following way -

(a) clear-mindedness on new contradictions and surfacing of hidden risks;

(b) intensifying of overall reform deepening - 

1. to energize latent market vitality;
2. to widen paths for innovation;
3. to push forward high-quality outward openness;
4. to promote people's well-being, including equality and social justice.

A diagramitc illustration (in Chinese) is provided in the following extract dated 10 November, 2014, from the "100 Plan Organization", a state-sponsored organization to attract global talents. Click here

4th Plenum - Rule of Law

Live panel discussion on World Insight with Beijing's China Central Television broadcast on 26 October, 2014

At the interview I made the point that China's concept of the rule of law is different from the West. There is no intention of embracing the Western idea of separation of powers between the administration, the judiciary and the legislature. And the rule of the Communist Party cannot be challenged, even as party officials are now held to account according to law. However, there are moves to improve the independence of the judiciary by elevating powers to appoint local judges and the funding of the legal system to the provincial level. Additionally, ideas of institutionalizing the current corruption-infested system of "Letters and Petitions" system are beginning to be talked about. 

What the promotion of the Rule of Law or Rule by Law actually means in China is further illustrated in the latest leader in The Economist (November 1-7, 2014).

A further article in the same issue highlights the new emphasis on the role in upholding the rule of law of China's Constitution, to which all officials will have to swear allegiance in future. 4th December would henceforth be made the National Constitution Day.

This debunks the speculation surrounding earlier officially-sanctioned attacks against "constitutionalism" that at best lip-service would hence forth be paid to the role of the Constitution in China's politics. What is to be understood is that the supremacy of the Party is enshrined in China's Constitution. That means that the Party's leadership cannot be questioned by China's laws. But that doesn't mean that Party members are above the law, as the recent anti-corruption campaign is at pains to emphasize.

HK Deadlock

A panel discussion on World Insight with Beijing's China Central Television (CCTV) broadcast on 20 October, 2014 (The track starts at meter reading 27:59 )

Live interview on China Central Television