Gideon Rachman is the Financial Times’ chief foreign affairs commentator. His book ‘Easternization: Asia’s Rise and America’s Decline, From Obama to Trump and Beyond’ (Other Press, New York, 2016) delves into the dynamics of rising "Eastern powers" especially China challenging the postwar world order now less well led by the United States. He reckons, however, that unlike other times in history, tensions notwithstanding, the Thucydides trap is extremely unlikely to be sprung in an age of massive nuclear powers with sophisticated intercontinental delivery systems.
In a book review in the FT of 31 March, 2017, Rachman synthesizes related threads running through a raft of recent eminent works on the same subject -
Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? by Graham Allison, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 320 pages; Everything Under The Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China’s Push for Global Power, by Howard French, Scribe, 352 pages; By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783, by Michael Green, Columbia University Press,760 pages; China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building along the New Silk Road, by Tom Miller, Zed Books, 304 pages; and China’s Quest for Great Power: Ships, Oil and Foreign Policy, by Bernard Cole, Naval Institute Press, 320 pages.
Mutual nuclear deterrence is not the only reason why the Thucydides Trap is unlikely to be sprung. According to Bill Overholt of the Havard Asia Center, post-modern geopolitical rivalry is more likely to be decided by economics rather than sheer military might. Watch the transcript of his video clip on China Debate TV of 22 August, 2017.
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