This provocative piece dated 28 September 2017 is a Special Report by Global Sentinel, an online security platform. It draws on top strategic think-tan RAND's 2016 study, War with China: Thinking through the Unthinkable, with the following assessments -
"..... by 2025 “China will likely have more, better and longer-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles; advanced air defenses; latest generation aircraft; quieter submarines; more and better sensors; and the digital communications, processing power and C2 [cyber security] necessary to operate an integrated kill chain.”
"In the event of all-out war, RAND suggested, the United States might suffer heavy losses to its carriers, submarines, missiles, and aircraft from Chinese strategic forces, while its computer systems and satellites would be degraded thanks to “improved Chinese cyberwar and ASAT [anti-satellite] capabilities.”
"Even though American forces would counterattack, their “growing vulnerability” means Washington’s victory would not be assured. In such a conflict, the think tank concluded, there might well be no “clear winner.”
This somewhat resonates with explicit references in prestigious US thank-tanks to a new multipolar world- "drawing to a close an era of American dominance following the Cold War" (“Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress,” National Intelligence Council, Washington DC, January, 2017), and "A Post-Primacy World" (At Our Own Peril: DoD Risk Assessment, June 2017).
The Global Sentinel piece is predicated on China's seemingly inexorable rise in economic and geopolitical power, including China's latest breakthrough in quantum satellites and quantum computers. This translates into entangling the sitting superpower, the United States, and its perceived challenger, China, in a classic Thucydides Trap.
According to an imagined scenario in the piece, an unintended US-China crash in the South China Sea resulting in Chinese casualties prompts China to launch a cyber attack against a wide spectrum of US military assets. In retaliation, the US launches a full-scale military drone strike at China's naval base in Hainan. "Although decades away from matching the full might of Washington’s global military, China could, through a combination of cyberwar, space warfare, and supercomputing, find ways to cripple U.S. military communications and thus blind its strategic forces." "Without a single combat casualty on either side, the superpower that had dominated the planet for nearly a century loses World War III".
At this juncture, it is instructive to visit a 2017 RAND study, Conflict with China Re-visited . It has this to say -
"The range and capabilities of Chinese air and sea defenses have continued to grow, making U.S. forward-basing more vulnerable and the direct defense of U.S. interests in the region potentially more costly. ...... Neither the United States nor China is likely to employ nuclear weapons, but even an initially localized conflict could quickly spread into the economic, cyber, and space realms, doing considerable damage to both sides."
"The United States may be able to reduce or delay such reliance on escalatory responses by shifting to less vulnerable platforms: longer-range precision-strike drones and vessels to carry longer-range drones and submarines, along with the further dispersal of bases and force flows. The United States can also encourage and help allies and partners in the region to increase the range and capabilities of their own air and sea defenses".
"Barring unforeseen technological developments, however, it will not be possible for the United States to rely indefinitely on the direct defense of its regional interests. Unless China commits naked and large-scale aggression—which, to be clear, is not indicated by the current pattern of its use of force—the United States will likely want to focus on deescalating localized clashes and removing bones of contention."
"We recommend, therefore, that the United States move sooner rather than later—before its power position in the region diminishes further—to constructively engage China across a range of potential flash points. Such engagement might include more-energetic efforts to promote the resolution of conflicting maritime claims in the South China Sea; encouragement of improved cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan; and more-extensive consultations with China on Korea issues, including possibilities for denuclearizing North Korea, formally ending the Korean War, and Sino-American collaboration in the event of a North Korean regime collapse. The United States should maintain a dense network of diplomatic relationships with China while strengthening channels for crisis communications, including regular leader-to-leader, military-to-military contacts."
As for the Thucydides Trap, Sun Tzu's Art of War remains refreshingly relevant. The best war is won without fighting. In the post-modern 21st century, everything is inter-connected. Advanced nuclear weaponry and asymmetric warfare ensure mutual deterrence, Superpower rivalry can no longer depend on sheer military coercion. Winning is more likely to take the form of economic connectivity and ability to bring more goods to the global commons. Click here
