CHINAwatch

Move to abolish Xi's term limit - more is at stake than power grab

The Chinese Communist Party (CPC)'s decision to abolish the two-term limit for President and Vice President by amending the Constitution sends shock waves across the globe. The immediate inference is that President Xi wants to stay in power well beyond 2023, possibly for life. Comparisons are made with other authoritarian strongmen perpetuating power by side-stepping constitutional restraints, such as President Putin of Russia and President Erdogan of Turkey. Some coin the epithet "emperor for life".

The prognosis is that Xi chooses the moment while he is riding high rather than wait until later in his second term, when power usually ebbs. The move breaks with decades of Communist Party leadership transition. Questions are asked whether this would lead to one-man dictatorship, arbitrary decisions, more censorship of dissent, less open market, more aggressive relations with other countries, and a less stable China. Click here and here .

The Party's move is expected to be rubber-stamped in the National People's Congress in March. A likely explanation is that the CPC is also driven by the posts of Party General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Both posts, which are without term limits, are concurrently held by President Xi. So the removal of term limit for President will serve to equalize the rules for the three top leadership posts.

So far, however, an important aspect seems to have been overlooked. Apart from concentrating power, President Xi, unlike his immediate predecessors, is impassioned with an epoch-defining historical mission, that of realizing the China Dream of national renaissance, reclaiming the nation's rightful place in the world as a great power. 

This mission is defined by the "Two Centenary Goals". First, turning China into a "moderately prosperous nation in all respects" by the CPC's centenary in 2020. Second, "building China into a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful" by the middle of the 21st century in time for the People's Republic of China centenary. The Constitutional amendment is said to include these specific words together with Xi's guiding principle "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era". The reference to "New Era" is instructive, signifying a rapidly-changing world order likely to yield a historic window of opportunity more conducive to China's ascendancy, at least economically.

All these point to a pressing sense of historic mission. For Xi, the moment must be seized as herculean tasks and intractable obstacles lie ahead.

Internally, powerful vested interests continue to stall game-changing reforms. According to Kevin Rudd, President of the Asia Society, Washington D.C., most of China's economic reform agenda is not on track. Click here  These reforms are critical if China is to overcome the middle-income trap towards a more advanced economy. They encompass state-owned-enterprise reforms, reducing over-capacity, supply-side market-competition reforms, labour and land reforms, further currency liberalization, and improvements in cross-border finance, trade, and investments. While some progress has been made in key areas such as innovation and the environment, there is still a long way to go.

Socio-politically, the mountains to climb look even more daunting. Examples include hidden corruption, the rule of law, checks and balance of a one-party state, rising aspirations of a vast body of university-educated citizens, acute income inequalities, regional disparities, demands for better social protection, healthcare and food safety, urbanization and rural migration, ethnic unrests, to name but a few. 

As if internal challenges are not enough, externally, there is a rising tide of sinophobia putting stumbling blocks in China's way. Cold-war geopolitics seem to be back, resulting in a regional, if not global, arms race. Trade friction is rearing its ugly head, leading to increasing protectionism. Chinese outbound investments are exposed to ever-tighter scrutiny, some ending in outright blockage on grounds of national security. 

That's why President Xi needs to consolidate his grip on all levers of power, to ensure his national blueprint, supported by a trusted and well-proven team of highly capable advisers, politicians and administrators, is not derailed. That's also why he has completely modernized the military so that the nation can better withstand any external military threats or pressures in times of upheaval. 

A clear sign that President Xi makes hay while the sun shines is that most of his chosen team of trusted and capable lieutenants are slotting into place in a drastically-revamped party and national institutional structure. Click here This includes the setting up of a "national supervision commission" (likely to be headed by Wang Qishan, his confidant and anti-corruption czar) to broaden the massive anti-corruption drive throughout the Party, government and the military, a unified natural resources and environmental protection super-ministry to safeguard the nation's natural assets, and vigorous streamlining to make the government machinery leaner and more effective. Seen in such context, the removal of term limit ensures steadfastness, stability and continuity in realizing the China Dream.

As evident from Xi's first-term, Party decisions are carefully thought-out after series of expert, if often non-transparent, debates. Policy decisions involving people's livelihood are usually preceded by rounds of public or expert consultation. According to a United Nations report released on 20 March, 2017, China ranked 79th among 155 countries in happiness levels, up from 83rd the previous year. There is no reason why President Xi would now choose to blacken his reputation by turning into a dictator. 

Moreover, by not including 69-year-old Wang Qishan in the new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) top leadership, Xi has been careful not to breach the unwritten yet long-honoured retirement rule for elevation to the PSC. This may augur well for the preservation of another long-cherished rule to limit life-long positions of leaders - the mandatary retirement age of over 70. Indeed, Article 36 of the CPC's Constitution specifically forbids lifelong tenure of leading cadres at all levels. This provision has not been proposed to be amended. 

By the end of his second-term, President Xi will be just under 70 years old. He may well need to serve a third term. But that doesn't mean that he would become President for life. For the CPC, a formal title or position doesn't always equate personal authority. Deng Xiaoping remained paramount leader even when his only remaining official post was chairman of the China Bridge Association.

Whether the unprecedented abolition of term limit would make China more authoritarian remains to be seen. But interpreting the move as pure power-grabbing risks over-simplifying what is at stake.

Why fixating on countering China’s Rise won’t keep America safer and more prosperous

Breaking with tradition, President Trump chose to personally launch a 55-page National Security Strategy on 18 December. He named China and Russia “revisionist powers” “attempting to erode American security and prosperity”. While conceding the need to cooperate with China, he vowed to make the United States more competitive and much stronger, including its military, always putting America first. 

This was shortly echoed by an 11-page summary of a 2018 National Defence Strategy. This asserts that henceforth, “great-power competition,” not terrorism, must be the primary focus of national security. A broad roadmap is unveiled, aiming at sharpening integrated military lethality, including nuclear weaponry, and expanding America’s military alliances.

Some American opinion-formers have regretted that the United States supported China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, which has helped China’s economic rise. There is bipartisan consensus that attempts to mold China into a “responsible stakeholder” of the US-led world order have been largely unsuccessful. A more robust anti-China mindset seems to have moved centre-stage, reminiscent of the “Offensive Realism” school of great-power rivalry.

Under a new “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, President Trump has re-energized a quadralateral strategic alliance of the United States, Japan, Australia and India, all not-so-friendly towards China. Various Chinese investments in the United States have recently been blocked. A 30% tariff has been imposed on Chinese solar panels, an ominous first salvo of what could escalate into a full-blown trade war. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson recently warned Latin America against dependency created by China’s Belt and Road Initiative Click here. A storm seems to be gathering in US-China relations. Click here

Amid growing sinophobia and Trumpist smoke and mirrors, it is easy to lose sight of the reality and paradox of China’s rise.

As China grows into a ten-thousand-ton panda, it can no longer follow Deng Xiaoping’s dictum of “hiding strength and biding time”. Even its own avowed benign behavior has not been sufficient to prevent smaller neighbors from hedging strategically.

Paradoxically, however, a stronger and more developed China may well offer greater opportunities to keep America safer and even more prosperous. President Trump once said the United States should have kept the oil in what turned out to be an unproductive War on Iraq (*). Nevertheless, even with geopolitical rivalry with China, there are ways for America to gain.

Examples abound.

First coming to mind is China’s capacity for stabilizing the dynamics of the Korean peninsula. With supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s new-found friendly Winter-Olympics overtures towards South Korea, China could be encouraged to broker a verifiable non-aggression deal between North Korea and the United States, perhaps backed by security guarantees by China along with other members of the six-party talks, including Russia.  

Second, the South China Sea is China’s artery of trade and resources. China is therefore unlikely to disrupt the normal flow of civilian and commercial navigation. But China’s “island building” with military installations diminishes America’s military flexibility. Nevertheless, apart from symbolic yet provocative “freedom of navigation operations”, the United States may select suitable sea routes for regular joint patrols with the Chinese navy. This would send a strong signal for regional peace and stability.

The United States could also explore the possibility of jointly developing with China and other countries the vast energy reserve in the South China Sea, subject to suitable environmental safeguards. Likewise, with depleting fishery resources, a US-China joint initiative for sustainable fisheries management would do wonders in minimizing regional conflict, while adding to the soft-power of both countries.

Third, a strong and prosperous China presents many opportunities for American investments and expertise. As an energy surplus nation, America can sell vast quantities of natural gas to China, the world’s biggest energy customer, to help reduce coal-fired pollution. China has recently removed foreign investment restrictions in a host of industries and services. These include rail transport equipment, automotive electronics, new energy batteries, electric vehicles, bio fuels, motor cycles, satellites, edible agricultural products and marine engineering.Click here According to a McKinsey report, China investment opportunities in 2018 include the middle-class consumer market, the digital economy, electric vehicles, the green economy, pharmaceuticals, wealth and asset management, and other financial services.

Last but not least, America’s strongest card of managing China’s rise is its  robust institutions and unmatched legacy of moral and ethical values, what makes for America as “a shining city on a hill”. Although much of this has been temporarily squandered by “America First” Trumpism, the reservoir of American soft power largely remains.

For example, instead of resisting China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the United States could participate in some much-needed regional infrastructural projects. This will enable it to set an example in good corporate governance including transparency, accountability and sustainability. An analogy is the China-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Its diverse membership includes a host of American allies. Its more transparent and inclusive organization structure and its development of good governance along with the Word Bank are instructive.

However, all of the above opportunities would be compromised if US-China relations becomes strained.

China’s Ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai recently alluded to strategic misjudgment of China in some United States quarters Click here. Still beset with a mountain of economic, financial, social and environment obstacles, China has neither the global military capacity nor the geopolitical willingness to displace the United States’ role in world leadership any time soon.

In an ever-closely knit “global village” facing a host of common challenges including climate change, energy security and terrorism, China’s fate cannot be unbundled from the rest of the world, least of all the United States. Hence, President Xi Jinping’s clarion call for abandoning a binary cold-war mindset and forging a “new era for international politics” with a view to building a global “community of common destiny”.

With major historical, cultural, socio-economic and political differences, China’s choice of development path and its security and other core interests must be respected. As the country becomes much larger, its natural desire for more regional elbow room and international influence projection must be accommodated.

Fixating on confronting and thwarting China’s inevitable rise will not enrich the United States. On the contrary, engaging China more constructively would capture the “oil”, figuratively speaking, in China’s rapid development. It would keep America safer and more prosperous. It would also be a smart way of leveraging China’s rise to make America great again.

(*) Fire and Fury, Inside the Trump White House, Michael Wolff, Henry Holt & Co., New York, 2018, p.49.

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An edited version of the above article appeared as an Op-ed in the South China Morniong Post of 15 February, 2018 with a different title "How a Sino-US relationship reset would help make America great again".