In an insightful Op-ed (9 October) of the Washington Post, veteran strategist Robert Kaplan explains why the Western Pacific is no longer a unipolar American naval lake. From a rising China's perspective as a great power, it is China's home waters, for security and other reasons, just like the Caribbean for the United States. It's the latter that is considered the aggressive hegemon.
Unless the US wants a catastrophic shooting war, the only way to counter China's incremental influence is a US system of free trade and democratic alliance, supported by consistency of one's words All this seems being undermined by President Trump's capricious antics, according to Kaplan.
In a second Op-ed in The Post. columnist Josh Rogin reveals that the Trump administration is to launch another salvo in a "new, bold, and risky" strategy to confront China, this time on human rights in Tibet. Riding on old and new criticisms of repressions of Tibetans and Uighurs, and using the principle of "reciprocity", the Senate is hoping to pass a Reciprocal Access to Tibet Act by the end of the year, forcing China to open up Tibet for inspection by journals and US officials on pain of sanctions against Beijing officials. Reminiscent of Western coercion during China's humiliated past, this would be rubbing salt in China's wounds from the trade war. As there is no way China would succumb to this, this latest move is likely to push US-China relations over the precipice.
It is to be hoped that depending on the outcome of the November US mid-term elections, President Trump may be disposed to de-escalating this vicious spiral which may well threaten to turn a Cold War into something far worse.
Comments