CHINAwatch

Trump and Xi negotiate trade war ceasefire at G20 in Osaka

Live interview with RT on 29 June, 2019

Has the US overplayed its hand on trade?

Zhang Jun, dean of School of Economics at Fudan University and director of China Center for Economic Studies, a Shanghai-based think tank, thinks so in an Op-ed in Project Syndicate of 21 June, 2019. According to Zhang, 

"China is too deeply embedded in global supply chains simply to go away. Alienating the world’s leading manufacturer and industrial producer — with its consumer market of 1.4 billion people — will severely disrupt global value chains and cast a shadow over the entire world economy." "... deviations from free-market orthodoxy and abuses of state power could shake America’s own economic foundations and threaten its institutions."

"Beyond retaliating directly, through tariffs on agricultural products and commercial aircraft, it could tighten capital controls, dump its unparalleled holdings of US treasury debt or allow its currency to depreciate. (The wave of competitive devaluations triggered by the latter option would destabilize the U.S. dollar, as well as the international monetary institutions.)"

"But, rather than allow the Trump administration to push it to increase imports unilaterally — an approach that is both naive and reckless — China is insisting on resolving the problem in stages. The world should support this method, with the U.S., in particular, relaxing restrictions on exports to China and welcoming Chinese investment in the U.S."

Europe continues to welcome Chinese investment in its ports, despite US concerns

With a more nuanced response to China's global connectivity (slide no. 66-69), Europe seems doubling down on its Belt and Road Initiative, according to independent journalist Emanuele Scimia in the South China Morning Post of 20 June, 2019.

Much-needed infrastructural investments including ports and other logistics linking to the world's largest trading nation are seen by smaller and larger European countries alike as hugely beneficial. While many of America's concerns are shared, such as lack of corporate governance, debt burden and impact on the environment, the rhetoric about a geopolitical plot behind the Initiative is generally regarded as overblown.

China's various state-owned entities have taken substantial equity stakes in some European ports e.g. 51% in Port Piraeus, 49.9% in two terminals in Genoa and 35% in Rotterdam. According to the article, new cooperation agreements or letters of intent are now being signed with a string of European countries including Italy (Trieste), Netherlands (Rotterdam), Belgium, Spain, France, and Malta. Even Norway's Arctic city of Kirkenes is building a new sea port to connect to China's "Polar Silk Road". 

America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire

Writing for The National Interest on 17 June, 2019, Robert Kaplan, managing director for global macro at Eurasia Group, warns of "the coming Chinese Empire".

A different class of America competitor multiple degrees more formidable than the former Soviet Union, China's ascendancy is driven by efficient state capitalism supported by robust civilizational culture and its Belt and Road Initiative of global ambitions.

Kaplan proposes that the United States should avoid getting entangled in the Middle East and should focus instead on the Indo-Pacific. While unlikely to become a firm US ally, India's capabilities should be strengthened together with boosting Taiwan's defences, both as counterweight against the spread of China's growing influence in the region.

He concludes by saying that "the last thing American policymakers or strategists should assume is that somehow we are superior to the Chinese, or worse: that somehow we have a destiny that they do not."

Hong Kong's protests against Mainland extraditon - dynamics and bigger picture with the US

China Debate, a non-partisan platform, features a bullet-point synopsis of what the extradition bill is all about, what's behind it, how it has been handled, what are the repercussions both in Hong Kong and internationally, including complications with US-China trade talks and future relations. 

Live TV interviews can be accessed here: Aljazeera English Channel , BBC World News , ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) , BBC World News - Impact , TRT World (Turkey) . 

Does Trump hold all the cards against China?

While China is brazing itself to withstand Trumpian bullying on all fronts, the narrative that the United States holds all the cards against China deserves a little perspective. China has powerful cards up its sleeve.

First, according to a report in Foreign Policy, China could shut down America's defenses by denying access to China's monopoly of high-end processed rare earths. Second, as anti-China tariffs widen to catch more and more consumer products, according to the IMF, the U.S. is paying China's tariff costs .Third, China is weaponizing its position as the world's second largest economy by drawing up a retaliatory "Unreliable Entities" blacklist. 

These three alone should give pause to America First sky-is-the-limit bullying of China, not to mention an arsenal of other non-tariff measures calculated to inflict serious harm to many American businesses exposed to the China market as well as other manoeuvres designed to complicate America's diplomatic and geopolitical interests including North Korea. 

Why does the US attack Huawei on all fronts?

News brief on PressTV of 12 June, 2019, quoting my live TV interview clips. 

Trumps threatens more tariffs if President Xi doesn't show up at G20

Live TV interview with RT on 11 June, 2019

Digital Cold War? How Beijing's Striking Back Against US Crackdown on Huawei

Op-ed in Sputnik News of 10 June, 2019.

China vows to respond with firm resolve if U.S. insists on escalating trade tensions

Live interview with PressTV on 11 June, 2019