My thoughts in reponse to the following media questions -
How do you think China perceives and responds to the current Israel-Hamas conflict within the broader context of its foreign policy and global diplomatic engagements?
China cannot avoid condemning terrorism to innocent civilians of any country, Israel included, as China had itself suffered from acts of terrorism in Xinjiang. However, condemning any side will not achieve sustainable peace. Hence Bejing is adopting a multi-pronged approach: sending a special envoy to consolidate
positions in the Arab world and Iran; maintaining dialogue with the US and Israel; leading a motion for humanitarian ceasefire in the UN Security Council, where it's China's turn for chairmanship; and supplying humanitarian aid to Gaza.
The Palestinian Authority has almost lost its legitimacy in the eyes of the Palestinian people, who have continued to suffer marginalization and de-humanization under the Israeli occupiers, including continued confiscation of their land, monopolizing their water resources, and regular harassment by the Israeli military.
Hence Hamas' plot to trigger the current Gaza crisis, to rally support of the entire Arab and Muslim world for their long-standing fight for respectable statehood.This explains President's Xi Jinping's urge for resuscitating the Two-State Solution, which is slowing gaining international traction.
The Gaza conundrum, however, has wider game-changing implications globally. While the Biden administration is embroiled over Gaza, it has become increasingly hard pressed to supply enough ammunition to Ukraine. Political appetite is fast waning for throwing billions more money into the Ukrainian blackhole without any significant turn-around in routing out Russian occupations. The situation is becoming more critical with ever-higher Israeli demand for supply of similar ammunitions over Gaza.
When push comes to shove, it is becoming clear that Capitol Hill's priority is Israel instead of Ukraine. A possible new Trump presidency is very likely to throw Ukraine under the bus, as he was reported as saying that as President, he could end the Ukraine war in one day.
The Europeans, meanwhile, are already strapped in grave economic difficulties. Their populations are becoming tired and worried about this seemingly endless war of attrition. In these circumstances, it is questionable whether Ukraine could sustain the war through 2024, even before a new-term US President enters the White House. If so, this would mean Russia would be able to dictate terms of any ceasefire and claim victory in the eyes of the world. That's why Putin is now confident enough to start preparations for his bid for two more 6-year terms as President.
What is likely to follow is perhaps a fatal blow to America's claim for global leadership. A more assertive Middle East is seeing its energy exports more in tune with China as the world's largest energy customer, not to mention China's centrality in the global supply and value chain as the world's largest trader and manufacturer, Western "de-risking" notwithstanding.
At the same time, US hostilities are pushing Russia and Iran even closer to China, forming what the late Brzezinski called a mighty "anti-hegemonic coalition" (The Grand Chessboard, Basic Books, New York, 2016 (p.55)), which is set to upend America’s self-proclaimed leadership of the global order.
China has no appetite (nor capabilities) to replicate US global leadership. What it wants is hopefully a more multipolar world, where countries with diverse ideologies and stages of development can coexist peacefully, cooperating where they can on bilateral or regional socio-economic development as well as global
challenges like Climate Change, pandemics, nuclear non-proliferation, terrorism, drug trafficking etc.
2. In your assessment, could China effectively contribute to mediating and facilitating a resolution to the Israel-Hamas conflict? What are the potential challenges and opportunities in this regard?
As a relatively friendly and more balanced party towards both sides of the conflict, China is well placed to play the role of an effective mediator. For any peace to be sustainable, President Xi has proffered the Two-State Solution right from the start of his intervention.
Taking advantage of China’s term to chair the UN Security Council, China has brokered a UN resolution calling for immediate humanitarian ceasefire over Gaza. The vote in the 15-member council was 13 for the Resolution and one (US) veto, with the UK abstaining.
Given Israel's overwhelming armament and aerial bombardment in crowded quarters in Gaza, destroying already stretched civilian hospitals and shelters, most global public opinions, those in Western nations included, are outraged by the continuing inhuman civilian carnage and suffering, including many women and
children.
Popular resentment has been restraining some of the excesses of the Israeli military, but fails to stop the Israeli insistence, regardless of the United States, that a precondition for peace must be the total eradication of Hamas.
However, the crux of the matter is NOT Hamas, which has resorted to terrorism on the Israelis only to gather momentum for the realization of Palestinian people’s long-suffering claim for respectful statehood, including their ancestral land and water rights in Palestine. Hence, the imperative for a permanent and sustainable Two-State Solution. But Israel, undeterred by any moderation of allies, remains recalcitrant.
3. What unique diplomatic approaches or strategies could China bring to the table in supporting peace efforts and de-escalation in the region?
What China wants is a peaceful Middle East, which is a key conduit for its Belt and Road Initiative linking China more closely with the Global South and beyond.
Beijing is likely to double-down on coordinating humanitarian responses with all stakeholder countries on both sides, not only Israel, the United States, and Europe, but also Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries in the Arab League, along with the UN Secretary General, with a view possibly to convening a global forum for sustainable peace in Palestine.
China is also likely to continue playing an ever more proactive role in the United Nations in support of the UN Charter of respecting each country’s sovereignty, the bedrock of China’s foreign policy.
The recent callous US veto to an almost unanimous UN resolution calling for immediate humanitarian ceasefire over Gaza begs the question of United States constructive leading role in global governance. It also flags up the long-demanded reform of the United Nations Security Council. Click here
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