So asks Jacob Dreyer in a New york Times Guest Essay dated 19 April 2024. Dreyer is a Shanghai-based American editor and writer focused on the intersection of the Chinese political economy and science.
Dreyer's essay ticks all the right boxes on China;s green energy surge. These include China's powerful state-directed model in achieving all-of-society outcomes to combat Climate Change, its unbeatable cost-competitiveness for green energy businesses including EVs (electric vehicles), and its imperatives of achieving energy security through reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels through hostile transit "choke points" (e.g. the Malacca Strait controlled by America's Seventh Fleet).
To these should be added China's possession of comprehensive and globally-oriented green-energy supply-and-value-chains, includng rare-earths and other materials, a manufacturing powerhouse covering all aspects of production and utilization, and external connectivity through global Belt and Road linkages.
China's current global green energy dominance is well documented in the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Renewables 2023 Report (released Janury 2024). See its Executive Summary and a Reuters report of 11 January 2024.
According to the IEA report, China will account for 56% of renewable energy capacity additions in the 2023-28 period. China is expected to increase renewable capacity by 2,060 gigawatts (GW) compared with the rest of the world's 1,574 GW addition. China accounts for almost 90% of the global upward forecast revision, consisting mainly of solar photovoltaic (PV).
The IEA report flags up China's 80‑95% share of global green energy supply chains. Its solar PV manufacturing capabilities have almost doubled since last year, "creating a global supply glut," says the IEA.
Nevetheless, the IEA points out that China already accounts for 53% of the world's 2,095 GW of operating coal-fired generating capacity, a share likely to increase in coming years as more coal plants are retired in the developed world. So China is likely to achieve its declared goal of net zero carbon emission (carbon neutrality) by 2060 only during the final years before the target.
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