CHINAwatch

Paradigm Shifts Upending the World Order 2025

A PowerPoint presentation on 4 March 2025 to a business group meeting at HSBC HQ confernence room.
Download Paradigm Shifts Upending the World Order 2025 - EGN Group meeting 4 March 2025

 

President Xi's New Year Message on Taiwan's future

Live TV debate on NewsX, India's fastest-growing and award-winning English-language news channel with over 100 million viewers. (The Indian interlocutor misrepresented President Xi's remarks. "Our generation" doesn't mean Xi's personal lifetime, but the current generation of the Chinese people as a whole. Beijing's military drills are meant to deter separatist moves and to create a momentum towards  negotiations for peaceful unification.) 

香港一國兩制價值觀與1997年前比較

2024 年 12 月 9 日多伦多粤语 YouTube 频道在线采访 

Gradual increase of Mainland China's retirement age - implications

BackChat on RTHK (Radio Television Hoing Kong) on 19 September 2024.

Hong Kong Editors Convicted of Sedition in "Blow to Press Freedom"

So the New York Times reported on 28 August. I appeared on Aljazeera Engish Channel to offer some.perspectives (during my holiday sojourn in London)

(Aljazeera English is broadcast in 150 countries with a total audience estimated at 430 million, including London, Hong Kong, and, since 2013, unblocked in the United States.)

U.S. and China: Edging Toward the Brink?

US and China: Edging towards the brink? - Under the auspices of Washington D.C. based Aspen Institute, Niall Ferguson, the celebrated historian who predicted Cold War II in 2018, assembled some of the sharpest minds from both sides for an in-depth debate (Aspen Ideas Festival) on the future of U.S.-China relations, featuring David Daokui Li, Andrew Erickso, Keyu Jin, and Matt Pottinger.

The debate is extremely useful as it sharpens the often-twisted popular rhetoric, focussing on how best to "read China" with more productive perspectives, including difference in national psyche, cultural DNAs, the Taiwan issue, China's new "Generation Z", China's pragmatic priorities in the coming decades, and the need for more people-to-people exchanges.  

How to read China correctly in the coming Third Plenum

Yao Yang is a Professor and Director of the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University. On June 23, he delivered a speech at an event hosted by Zhenghe Island, a network platform for elites. The following are game-changing highlights gleaned from a translation by "Pekinology", an online platform affiliated with the Beijing-based world-renowned think-tank Center for China and Globalization (CCG): 

(a) China's globalization in the 80's and 90's was characterized by integration and convergence with the then-much-admired American model, not only economically, but socially and to a certain extent, politically. However, after the 2008 financial crisis and increasingly after 2010, China became convinced of its own people-centred socialist path led by the Communist Party of China (CPC). 

(b) This led to America elites' "disappointment" with China. As a self-proclaimed pinnacle nation, America considers its development path the only legitimate one for the world, intolerant of China's alternative model. The United States does not want China to play a leading role in regional or global affairs, seen as inimical to US leadership. This has driven an irrational, emotion-charged bipartisan pushback against China on all fronts.

(c) However, in economics, rationality inevitably prevails. U.S. trade war and attempts at technological decoupling or "de-risking" have not succeeded in isolating China globally.  Although US-China direct trade is declining, America’s dependence on Chinese products is rising. By rules of origin, China’s share of U.S. imports has increased from about 20% in 2018 to 25%. This is because Chinese companies have embraced a global strategy, with many exports shipped from other countries instead of directly from China. (N.B. China's production is globally inter-connected, even for products not qualified as "Made in China", in terms of materials, parts, components or logistics. China remains the largest trading partner for 128 out of 190 nations across the globe.) 

(d) The United States has hiked tariffs on China. Donald Trump said that if elected, he will increase tariffs on China to 60% and impose a 10% tariff on the rest of the world. It is likely that Europe would follow suit. However, China's cost-quality advantage is huge, ranging from 50% to 100% compared to Europe. Even with a 21% tax, most consumers are unlikely to budge. (N.B. If Chinese goods are totally debarred, American consumers and their European counterparts would struggle to cope as virtually all consumer products these days are either Made in China or contain Chinese materials or components). 

(e) Absorbing knowledge and technology from other countries, China's past 40 years of Reform and Opening Up (1978-2018) saw a socio-economic revolution, dismantling class differences and shifting towards enterprise and individualism. However, this has fed wide-spread and deep-seated corruption and unbridled commercialization of compulsory education and excessive financialization of real estate and personal loans. These challenges have shocked social stability and must be rectified. 

(f) The coming Third Plenum will announce the goals for 2035, detailing objectives to be achieved in a  New Era of "High Level Socialism". This is likely to involve comprehensive modernization, tied to China's goal of doubling its income per capita by 2035 through technological competition. Next is Common Prosperity, adjusting the income distribution structure, improving the social security system, and promoting integrated urban and rural development. Third, high-level openness to the outside world (N.B. capitalizing on China's ubiquitous global connectivity, ushering in a new phase of globalization).

Last but not least, against US-led  unprecedented stranglehold on China's access to nano semiconductor chips and other cutting-edge technologies, I should add that China is likely to double down on advancing technological self-reliance, building on its solid foundation as the latest acknowledged "scientific superpower".  

Xi Jinping's Europe visit implications

Backchat of 10 May 2024 on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) with Prof Joseph Mahoney of East China Normal University, Shanghai, and Professor John Burns of The University of Hong Kong. (My intervention starts from time counter 10:35 in the top bar) 

Explaining Hong Kong's enactment of Article 23 on national security

Live TV interview with Aljazeera English Channel on 30 January 2024 (appearing as a segment putting Article 23 into context) 

"Caging the Leviathan" - Beijing's tilt from Rule by Law to Rule of Law

Beijing's tilt from Rule by Law to Rule of Law was synthesized by Peking University Law School Professor Jiang Ming'an 姜明安 at the seminar on "The Formation and Prospects of Contemporary Chinese Administrative Law" on 6 October 2023, where he outlined the following shifts "Caging the Leviathan" under various headings:

The Mindset

(a) Government can make mistakes by infringing on citizen rights;
(b) Officials are not people's masters but their servants bound by law; citizens are free to act unless explicitly forbidden by law;
(c) Citizens are entitled to sue the government and to win according to law. 

Methods of Governance

(a) Officials should not just follow orders but also adhere to established principles;
(b) Governance should not be based on coercion but to include participation and interaction;
(c) Law should also be supported by administrative agreements, guidance and soft tactics;
(d) Emphasis should move from speed and efficiency to due process and protection of citizens rights.

The Party

(a) Emphasis is shifting from class struggle, GDP growth, and material development to fairness, justice, social, ecological and political civilization;
(b) Direction is to move from Rule by Policies and Law to Rule of Law.