CHINAwatch

LAC standoff: PLA, Indian troops begin process of disengagement but will be a long haul

TV panel discussion on CNN News 18 (India) on 11 February, 2021

In Focus: South Asia - Military part of overall China threat

Live TV interview on In Focus with Indus News on 6 January 2021 (My contribution starts from time counter 36:45)

US arms sales to Taiwan aimed at pushing back against China

Live interview with PressTV on 8 December, 2020.

U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION 2020 Annual Report to Congress

With US bipartisan "China Scare" reaching a crescendo, it is no surprise that the above 2020 Annual Report to Congress tries to back Beijing into a corner.

I use the word "Beijing" advisedly. The whole thrust of the Report seems directed at the Communist Party of China (CPC) - that Beijing harbors the ambition to displace the United States as the global leader; that it is trying to change the Western-led world order to suit its own rhetoric; that it has been doing this for years through advances in economic, military, trade, technology, academic exchanges and international organizations; and that its perceived transgressions in human rights, democracy, trade, investments, as well as its alleged machinations in the United Nations must be thwarted across the board with all the United States has at its disposal. 

Without belittling a host of legitimate American concerns about China's Rise, and granted that China needs to do a lot better in many areas domestic and international, a reading of the Report's findings on China's rising economic, military and technological gravitas begs the following questions - 

(a) whether as the world's second largest economy, China has the right to advance itself in all dimensions;

(b) whether China wants or is able to usurp the global leadership of the United States; America maintains military presence in 70 countries worldwide, its military expenditure exceeds the sum of the next 10 countries combined, its military technology and overall combat readiness remain unparalleled; even if China is likely to surpass the United States in aggregate GDP by 2035, its GDP per capita remains miles behind; 

(c) whether the Communist Party has legitimacy if, according to July 2020 Report of the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Harvard Kennedy School, it has been earning extremely high level of people's support across many matrices; 

(d) whether China needs to copy the Western model of capitalism: its own model has bee remarkably successful in lifting 800 million people out of poverty and growing China to what it is today in so short a time; 

(e) whether some of China's assertiveness or authoritarianism is largely defensive e.g. against perceived foreign security threats (e.g.US military deployment in the first and second "island chains in the South China Sea), violent separatist movements in Xinjiang, and subversive separatism in Hong Kong; 

(f) in cajoling China into mending some of its ways, whether in addition to a one-trick pony act - that of confrontation and containment, it may be more productive in working with China on defined areas of common interests e.g. Climate Change and North Korea, as well as on needed reform of multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organization, and the setting of international technological and other standards; and 

(g) unlike the old Cold War, Beijing is not exporting Communism around the world while few countries want to or can copy its model. This begs the question whether the United States Can Negotiate With a China Driven More by Power Than Ideology , as Robert Manning of the Atlantic Council suggests in his article of 4 December, 2020 in Foreign Policy. 

The following think-pieces may also offer some fresh perspectives -

The New China Scare - Why America Shouldn’t Panic About Its Latest Challenger

With Biden, China gets four years to remake itself as a likeable, trusted power. It must seize the moment  

How Asia would fare with a Biden Presidency and RCEP?

A PowerPoint presentation on 24 November 2020 to a meeting of the Pioneers Group of EGN, Hong Kong, a business network. 

Download How Asia would fare with a Biden Presidency and RCEP

 

Beijing vows retaliation over US arms sale to Taiwan

Live TV interview on 22 October 2020 with RT.

China's border dispute with Nepal and alleged "debt trap"

TV discussion on CNN News 18 of India on 20 October 2020. (My contribution starts from the middle of the video clip.) 

The New China Scare - Why America Shouldn’t Panic About Its Latest Challenger

At a time of paranoiac anti-China confrontations, it is instructive to re-visit Fareed Zakaria's insightful analysis in Foreign Affairs dated January/February, 2020. In sum, we need to ask whether China is really such an existential threat to the United States and the global liberal order. 

First, is China trying to take over the world as portrayed by Michael Pillsbury's The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower (New York, 2015)? 

Yes, China has become the world's second largest economy and is growing to become first within a decade or so. But regardless of anxieties about relative decline, the United States remains dominant in many matrices of world power, including global military presence, leadership in cutting-edge science and technology, alliance systems with leading advanced countries, and the mighty dollar.

While China may be able to challenge some of these matrices, at least regionally, there is no indication that China will be able to take over the world anytime soon.

Moreover, according to the latest survey of 6 October, 2020 of Washington D.C.-based PEW Research Center, Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries. At the end of the day, few countries want to embrace China's political system. Nor does China want to rival American's military presence in more than 70 countries around the world.

Second, consider China's perceived assertiveness in the South China Sea.

As these waters are vital sea lanes of communication for China's economic and strategic lifeblood (energy and trade), is it surprising that a growing China will want to guard against encirclement by US military assets in the so-called First and Second Island Chains and the Malacca choke point ? 

As China's economy remains heavily dependent on these waters, of necessity they will remain free and open for international shipping. In any case, China is unlikely to be able to impose a "Monroe Doctrine" on the United States as a long-established Pacific Power, unlike the relative power position of the United States in 1823 vis-a-vis its European rivals, both geographically and militarily. This reality seems unlikely to change substantially in the foreseeable future. At least, geography is immutable. 

Third, since accession to the World Trade Organization, China has been the biggest beneficiary of the liberal world order founded by the United States. Despite perceived malpractices, China remains a staunch supporter of free trade and a multilateral system underpinned by global institutions including the United Nations.

Instead of pushing for needed reforms of the existing liberal order, should the United States throw the baby out with the bathwater? Would unilateralism and rule of the jungle serve America's best interests when the whole world's supply and value chains are intricately intertwined, and power becomes more diffused? Even America's allies don't really want to be forced to choose sides sacrificing their own key economic interests. 

Fourth, regarding human rights and democracy, despite perceived transgressions, there is little evidence that the vast majority of the peoples in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, let alone the rest of China, are demanding regime change.

As regards ethnic cultural heritage, it is instructive that the PRC has taken care, right from the start, to show the native languages of its four largest minority ethnic groups - Uyghur, Tibetan, Mongolian and Zhuang - on all of China's banknotes - the Renminbi.  

Not forgetting that the United States has its fair share of human rights infringements (systemic racism, and extrajudicial detention camp at Guantanamo Bay come to mind), compared to the West, the Chinese Communist Party has been enjoying increasing support by the people, according to a July 2020 Harvard Kenney School Ash Center survey Understanding CCP Resilience: Surveying Chinese Public Opinion Through Time. All seem to support the nation's trajectory towards the China Dream of historic renaissance as a Great Power, bringing better and more dignified lives for its people.

Fifth, with 56 different ethnic groups, and great divergence of development between provinces, Western democratic models based on multi-party adversarial electoral systems can only lead to fragmentation, if not disintegration. Unlike former Communists, China is not imposing its ideology on other countries, or gunning for regime change.

Sixth, as for alleged belligerence, since the end of World War II, the United States has waged wars 57 times in 75 years. By comparison, China has waged few wars to speak of in recent decades, always pleading for peaceful coexistence, despite differences. 

Last but certainly not least, the world is big enough for diversity of political models, including China's and those of Arabic kingdoms. While substantial corrections are in order and differences or conflicts with Western political values remain, there is no reason to cancel cooperation or partnership in defined areas, such as regional peace, denuclearization, anti-terrorism, and Climate Change.

Indeed, measured cooperation will at least serve to calm down nerves, build trust for negotiations, and avoid a self-fulfilling security dilemma spawning unintended consequences that may spiral out of control.   

To put US-China power competition in a structural context, John Mearsheimer's webinar on 15 October 2020 with the University of Chicago - The Clash of Great Powers: China’s Rise and the Challenge to U.S. Primacy is opportune. The above run-down may help to answer, some, of not all, of the vital issues he raised. 

Click here for an alternative view in Foreign Affairs (November/December, 2020) on how the United States should respond to China's perception of America's "hastening decline". And here to listen to an American YouTuber living in China why an American patriot can love both America and China. 

Battle of rhetoric in the India-China standoff

Live interview with CNN News18 of India on 9 September, 2020. 

China-India tensions: Neighbors engage in blame game over fresh border escalation

Live interview with Press TV on 8 September, 2020