CHINAwatch

The Great Tech Rivalry - China v the US: How China will surpass USA in key 21st Century technologies by 2030

Drawing from the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Centre December 2021 Report - The Great Tech Rivalry: China vs the US, a YouTube podcast dated 18 March  2023 summarizes the state of play in 21st Century technologies comprising Artificial Intelligence (AI), 5G & 6G, Quantum Information Science, Semiconductors, Bitoechnoloy, and Green Energy, indicating that China is likely to surpass the US by 2030 in key domains in these fields. 

The full Belfer Centre Report may be accessed here.

China's "global ambitions" according to two prominent Western sinologists

In Daring to Struggle: China's Global Ambitions Under Xi Jinping (10 June,2022), Bates Gill, Chair of the Department of Security Studies at Macquarie University and Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Insitute in London, focuses on China's six perceived strategic interests: Legitimacy; Sovereignty, Wealth, Power, Leadership and Ideas.

The Ideas consist of four strands - (a) a new global era with dynamic "changes not seen in a hundred years" as backdrop for the struggle to realize the China Dream of national renaissance; (b) an aim to build a "Community of Common Destiny" for mankind beset with interconnected and inter-dependent challenges like Climate Change and global security; (c) achieving global "unity with diversity" in international relations, relying on China's ancient adage of "harmony despite differences" (和而不同); and (d) seeking "Chinese Solutions" for global challenges instead of blindly following a superficial, one-size-fits-all Western hymnbook.  

In The Final Struggle: Inside China's Global Strategy (2022), Ian Eason, Senior Director of the Project 2049 Institute, based in Arlington, Virginia, USA, tries to turn President Xi's concept of "Common Destiny" on its head, hyping it as a sinister plot to achieve global dominance by shaping a panopticon "world government" bent to his will. Understandably, to veteran China-bashers and those otherwise infected with Sinophobia, every curved shadow would look like a snake, as the Chinese saying goes. (杯弓蛇影)

Eason's overhyped narrative and wafer-thin understanding of China notwithstanding, eye-catching infographics by Louis Martin Vezian are perhaps the most interesting parts of the book, showcasing at a glance how much national progress and global influence China has achieved over recent decades under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The following reproduced infographics may come in handy by way of reference or reminder. 

Download China's One-World Government (Louis Martin-Vezian)

Download Taking Over International Institutions (Louis Martin-Vezian)

Download Wall Street PRC (Louis Martin-Vezian)

Download PRC Owned IoT in America (Louis Martin-Vezian)

Download Compromised Container Ports (Louis Martin-Vezian)

Download We Surround You (Louis Martin-Vezian)

Download China is the Future (Louis Martin-Vezian)

Download Buying Global Influence - (Louis Martin-Vezian)

 

 

Implications of the Biden-Xi 2-hour 17-minute talk

Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK) - Hong Kong Today morning news programme on 29 July, 2022 (Go to the segment "Pelosi visit could be 'dangerous flashpoint')

China's solar power manufacturers dominate global green energy market

Exclusive live interview with RT on 9 July, 2022

Will NATO’s new strategic concept work?

Inside Story on Aljazeera on 30 June, 2022. 

What The Economist omits to address in President Xi's vision of a global security order

The Economist article of 5 May 2022 claims that "Xi Jinping lays out a worldview with Chinese-Russian roots".

Laced with arguments soothing to Western ears, the article points out that Beijing's worldview primarily serves its own best interest, not wanting to lend support to a US-led Western coalition to punish, ostracize, and cripple, if not totally topple, Putin's Russia.

Well written regardless, the article glosses over the following dimensions:

(a) Should the pot call the kettle black? After all, all nations act in their own best interests, not least the United States. The war in Ukraine is seen as a godsend to revive US leadership and European/NATO unity. It would weaken if not destabilize Putin's Russia. Likewise, it presents a timely opportunity to implicate Beijing, which, as the article rightly points out, remains the United States' primary adversary. If all goes according to plan, a crumbling Russia would further empower the United States to prevail on China. 

(b) Beijing so far refrains from getting actively involved as a broker over Ukraine. Any even-handedness would be seen by the United States as pro-Russia. Following the US hymnbook would be ignoring Russia's security concerns; nor would it be in China's best interests. 

(c) The existing US-led "liberal order" seems on the verge of breaking down. It can't prevent the war over Ukraine from happening. Nor is the United States prepared to get directly involved. It is full of self-serving hypocrisy and double-standards. Witness Guantánamo Bay, illiberal treatment of US immigrants; selective embrace of Arabian authoritarian regimes; and indiscriminate coercion against other countries' rightful development.

(d) The United States seems turbo-charged to segregate the world into two camps, framing this a contest of the century between democracy and authoritarianism. However, notwithstanding draconian across-the-board sanctions and other restrictions, according to Wang Huiyao, founder and president of Center for China and Globalization (CCG) in Beijing, in 2021, "global trade hit a record $28.5 trillion, up 25% year-on-year and 13% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic struck. For all the talk of decoupling, U.S.-China trade swelled more than 20% last year, to $687.2 billion. Even with war in Ukraine, global trade is forecast to grow in 2022, albeit at a slower pace". "Cross-border investment also surpassed pre-pandemic levels last year, swelling to $1.65 trillion. China, in particular, is more integrated into the global economy than ever. In 2021, its foreign direct investment inflows rose by a third to an all-time high of $334 billion. In the first quarter of this year, they grew by more than 25% year-on-year". Click here "Globalization isn’t dead, It’s just not American anymore", Wang quipped. 

(e) Why should a world with diverse history, race, culture, ideology, politics, and stages of development, including ancient civilizations, be dictated by a US-defined one-size-fits-all formula? After all, the West represents only 8% of the world's population. The developing world now accounts for 57% of the world GDP. 123 countries have China as the largest trading partner compared with 57 for the United States. Not to mention the legitimacy of different regimes in the eyes of their own people. According to latest reports of Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center and Edelman Trust Barometer findings, over 90% of China's people trust the CCP government, multiple rankings above virtually all Western countries including the United States. Click here

(f) Why shouldn't President Xi's idea of a new global security order be at least equally good, if not better, for the world? What is wrong with his call for a security order that is “common, comprehensive, co-operative and sustainable” eschewing divisive alliances and blocs? Wouldn't this at the very least reduce spiraling global conflicts? 

(g) Why should (c) (d) (e) and (f) above be branded as having "Russian roots"? 

How the Ukrainian Crisis Impacts on Eurasia Geopolitics and US-China Relations

A PowerPoint presentation to the EGN Founding Chairmen Group in  Hong Kong on 7 April, 2022.

Download How the Ukrainian Crisis Impacts on Eurasia Geopolitics US-China Relations including HK 

 

The Impact of the Crisis in Ukraine on Global Supply Chains and China’s Economy.

An unbiased, critical Report dated 24.03.2022 by Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalization (CCG). 

Download CCG-Report-The-Impact-of-the-Crisis-in-Ukraine-on-Global-Supply-Chains-and-Chinas-Economy1 (1)

"This report begins by analyzing the massive shock caused by the Ukraine crisis and the US-European sanctions against Russia, providing initial estimates of the impact on the Russian economy, world financial markets, energy and food markets, global supply chains, the European economy and more widely the global economy. Second, the report posits several possible conclusions to the Ukraine crisis and the subsequent geostrategic impact on Europe. Finally, the report concludes by examining the Chinese economy beyond its borders and providing relevant recommendations. In summary, CCG believes that China could play the role of mediator in this crisis and potentially promote better multilateral relationships among Europe, the US and Russia."

The Report flags up the need for early resolution of the crisis, which is upending the world's stability and economy in myriad ways. It mentions China's possible role in acting as mediator but does not address the essential ingredients of a sustainable peace deal which may balance the demands on all sides.

China is in a delicate situation, not wanting to contravene the hallowed UN Charter principles of national sovereignty and opposition to unilateral action. See a 28 March 2022 report by a Hong Kong correspondent of Washington D.C.-based Feature Story News. Download 220325 i24 Chi Rus

On the other hand, it's clear that the United States wants to put maximum pressure on China to help strangle Russia. CGTN anchor Liu Xin famously quipped,  "Can you help me to fight your friend so that I can later concentrate on fighting you?"

So the sooner China can become the good guy by helping to broker an enduring peace over Ukraine, the better. A practical way-out may a "Swiss Solution" outlined in How to resolve the Ukrainian crisis dated 5 March, 2022 on Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights. 

Building China 3.0 - Final Sprint toward the China Dream

The above named is a full lecture for the Ljubljana Confucius Institute, Slovenia, including Q & A, open to worldwide participation. The lecture (free of charge) was  simultaneously promoted by the World Strategic Insights based in Rome.

The Zoom lecture took place on Thursday, 17 February, 2022 at 0900 hours European time (1600 hours Beijing/Hong Kong time). The lecture attracted 135 applicants with 76 physically present, pandemics and other obstacles notwithstanding. 

Full details of the lecture's contents are here. A copy of the PowerPoint presentation in PDF format is as follows. Download Building China 3.0. A voice-over video recording of the PowerPoint lecture is here. Also re-published on World Strategic Insights based in Rome. 

Owing to time constraints, one question not given time to answer was on China's hukou (household registration) problem, which created a massive underclass of rural migrants. A podcast Caste aside: The future of China's peasants captures the conundrum. 

The ongoing hukou reform remains a huge, moving challenge. You can't flood the big cities with migrant, poorly-educated villagers. You can't leave them in limbo. Covered in the PowerPoint presentation is China's massive high-speed rail network expansion (doubling to 70,000 km), to connect ALL cities with a population of over 500,000 people, with modern motorways connecting ALL towns with population over 200,000 inhabitants, however remote, by 2035. Many fourth-tier cities and towns are in a largely rural region, including millions of villages. A great many are formed into inter-connected "urban clusters".(Slide 109 of 114) Along with the vibrant digital economy, this hopefully will provide many opportunities for the "rural" population. 

Dynamics and Repercussions of China's Rise and the Contest for Global Order

A PowerPoint presentation as talking points (on 22 December. 2021) for The Reorient! Podcast on international issues from an Asian perspective. 

Dynamics and Repercussions of China's Rise and the Contest for Global Order - Download

As mentioned in the Podcast, a feature of China's unexpected dominance is in state-of-the-art 21st century technologies of 5G, quantum computing, and AI (Artificial Intelligence), as flagged up by the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center in a Report The Great Tech Rivalry: China v the U.S. of December, 2021. by Graham Allison et al.

Accompanying the above is a simultaneous Report The Great Military Rivalry: China vs the U.S showing how the era of US military primacy is now over, with every domain —air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace contested by Russia and China. In the case of Taiwan, "China has the capability to deliver a fait accompli ..... before Washington would be able to decide how to respond", thanks to its sophisticated A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) capabilities. 

According to Ryan Haas, senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Brookings Institution, in his December 2021 Global Asia article,

"the US and China residing within a single system, both deeply interconnected, neither capable of imposing its will on the other through threat or use of military force, and neither capable of mobilizing a bloc to counter the other — both sides will be pushed to find opportunities to gain relative advantage over the other in long-term competition." 

"the path to global leadership may not run through any attempt to “win” the US-China great power competition, whatever that entails. It may be the result of which power proves most capable of delivering solutions to challenges at home and abroad".