CHINAwatch

The Arctic Silk Road - Russia and China seek a trade advantage in the Arctic

The Arctic Silk Road - TV panel discussion on 17 July with TRT World.

China has become a scientific superpower

The above leader in The Economist of 12 June reveals some game-changing realities, including -

(a) From 2022, China had surpassed both America and the European Union (EU) in the number of high-impact peer-reviewed scientific papers, according to data from Clarivate, a science analytics company, topping citations in Material Science, Chemistry, Engineering, Computer Science, Environment and ecology, Agricultural science, Physics and Mathematics.

(b) The US and EU still retain top slots in Moleculr Biology, Space Science, Neuroscience, Clinical medicine, and Immunology. However, the areas where America and Europe still hold the lead are unlikely to be safe for long. For example, China is growing impressively in Biological and health sciences. 

(c) China now contributes to around 40% of the world’s research papers on AI, compared with around 10% for America and 15% for the EU and Britain combined. In areas like computer vision and robotics, China has a significant lead in research publications.

(d) There are now six Chinese universities or institutions in the world top ten, and seven according to the Nature Index. Tsinghua is considered the number one science and technology university in the world. 

(e) China excels in Applied Research, for example, in perovskite solar panels, producing more patents than any other country, helped by its unparalled industrial base.

(f) China's scientific advance is demonstrated by its Chang’e-6 robotic spacecraft which promises to become the first mission to bring back samples from the hard-to-reach far side of the Moon.

(g) When it comes to basic, curiosity-driven research (rather than applied), China is still playing catch-up—the country publishes far fewer papers than America in the two most prestigious science journals, Nature and Science.  America still spends around 50% more on basic research. 

(h) However, China is spearheading applied research and experimental development in quantum technologies, AI, semiconductors, neuroscience, genetics and biotechnology, regenerative medicine, and exploration of “frontier areas” like deep space, deep oceans and Earth’s poles.

(i) China's universities paid staff bonuses—estimated at an average of $44,000 each, and up to a whopping $165,000—if they published in high-impact international journals. Between 2000 and 2019, more than 6m Chinese students left the country to study abroad. Since the late 2000s, more scientists have been returning to the country than leaving, partly attracted by state-of-the-art equipped labs in China and partly pushed by increasing suspicion and discrimination in Western countries. China now employs more researchers than both America and the entire EU.

The Economist piece tallies with recent findings of  the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) that China is the leading in 37 of the 44 critical technologies, often producing more than five times as much high-impact research as its closest competitor the United States. Click here Among the categories of critical technologies, China dominates in all the subsectors in Artificial Materials and Manufacturing; Energy and Environment; and Sensing, Timing and Navigation with a substantial lead in all other categories.

These observations are supported by China's immense scientific manpower pool, according to George Town University's CSET (Center for Security and Emerging Technology. Click here  By 2025 Chinese universities will be producing more than 77,000 STEM PhDs per year compared to approximately 40,000 in the United States. Excluding international students, Chinese STEM PhD graduates would outnumber their U.S. counterparts more than three-to-one. 

Xi Jinping's Europe visit implications

Backchat of 10 May 2024 on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) with Prof Joseph Mahoney of East China Normal University, Shanghai, and Professor John Burns of The University of Hong Kong. (My intervention starts from time counter 10:35 in the top bar) 

What does President Xi's visit to Europe signify?

Recorded exclusive interview (in English) with NTV of Russia on 9 May 2024

Challenges and Prospects of the Chinese Economy: an exclusive in-depth video interview with Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights

Video interview of 8 May 2024 with Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights . YouTube link

The online lady interviewer hails from Istanbul, Turkey. 

How the US Keeps Fighting China, Knowing It Won’t Win?

The US has no Plan B, says Professor Radhika Desai, Director of the Geopolitical Economy Research Group, University of Manitoba, on the YouTube Thinkers Forum on 25 January 2024. She goes over paradigm shifts in 2023 on America's hegemony, including Ukraine and Gaza; the long-term impact on US's own economy; Russia's resilience against US-led pushback; questionable durability of the "casino-like" open-market dollar-system; the future of US-China relations; China's more restrained and globally-inclusive diplomatic stance; and the upcoming impactful elections in the United States and the United Kingdom. 

I should add that America's so-called Plan A against China has only four blunt coercive tools: (a) US military dominance, (b) US technological lead, (c) the weaponized dollar, and (d) America's so-called global alliance-network. These are proving less and less effective against China. 

As for (a), China has vastly expanded its military on all fronts. While unwilling and unable to match America's global military presence and supremacy, Chins is well capable of defending its core interests. This includes a mobile, hypersonic, nuclear-capable Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) System with multiple, separately-navigable warheads, a blue-water navy with more warships than the United States, state-of-the-art fifth-generation fighter planes and bombers, not to mention cyberwarfare and AI expertise. 

As for (b), nano-semiconductor-chips excepted for the time being, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has found that China is leading in 37 out of 44 21st-century cutting-edge technologies. Albeit excluded from the US-led International Space Station project from the very start, which is near the end of its useful life, China has succeed in building and operating its own Tiangong Space Station from scratch. It is the only country able to send a successful robotic probe to the far side of the moon. Its lunar program is picking up speed, partnering with other nations including some advanced countries. 

As for (c), indiscriminate long-arm dollar sanctions have pushed countries in the Global South to bypass the risks of exposure to a weaponized dollar. Some are beginning to transact bilateral trade with China using other currencies including the Renminbi. China's digital sovereign currency (e-CNY) is gaining traction internationally. After all, China is by far the world's largest trader and manufacturer. It remains the larger trading partner for 128 countries compared with America's 57. Seven of the world's top 11 container ports are in China, including Hong Kong. Even not "Made in China", China is embedded in myriad products across the globe, including materials. minerals, components and logistics, decoupling or de-risking regardless. 

As for (d), marginalized for decades under US hegemony, the Global South has become more able to defend their national sovereignty and strategic interests. Witness the massive Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) comprising ASEAN countries and their main trading partners. Absent the United States, this is the world's largest free trade bloc representing a third of global GDP and a third of world population, where China remains a central trading hub.  More developing countries have also chosen to join the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) Group as well as the Eurasian Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) where China and Russia hold sway. Witness also the more independent tilt of the Middle East and even India. Fact is, most nations in the Global South don't want to be forced to choose between America and China, which remains a key source for economic development, including trade and infrastructure.

The fixation on coercion to serve American interests often ignores stark realities, includinjg Adam Smith's ''comparative advantage". China has been buying a lot of international passenger jets from Boeing and Airbus, as it has yet no comparable alternatives. However, as China is the world's largest manufacturer, the reverse is true for most of China's manufacturing ouput, including its fully-integrated shipbuilding production chains. According to a report of 19 April in Foreign Policy, Chinese businesses manufacture  96 percent of the world’s dry cargo shipping containers. A single Chinese firm, ZPMC, claims that it supplies  70 percent of the world’s cargo cranes. This compares to U.S.shipyards manufacturing fewer than 1 percent of the cargo vessels that ply the global seas. Using coercive sanctions to turn the table is fanciful. 

All in all, as pointed out by Professor Desai, the days of American hegemony are numbered. The sooner America's elites wake up from their pipe-dream of perpetuating American hegemony through brute coercion, the better would be the propsects for a more inclusive and peaceful world, where the United States can still play a crucial role.   

US Secretary of State Blinken to visit China

Exclusive live interview NDTV of India on 22 April 2024

Xi Thinks China Can Slow Climate Change. What if He’s Right?

So asks Jacob Dreyer in a New york Times Guest Essay dated 19 April 2024. Dreyer is a Shanghai-based  American editor and writer focused on the intersection of the Chinese political economy and science.

Dreyer's essay ticks all the right boxes on China;s green energy surge. These include China's powerful state-directed model in achieving all-of-society outcomes to combat Climate Change, its unbeatable cost-competitiveness for green energy businesses including EVs (electric vehicles), and its imperatives of achieving energy security through reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels through hostile transit "choke points" (e.g. the Malacca Strait controlled by America's Seventh Fleet). 

To these should be added China's possession of comprehensive and globally-oriented green-energy supply-and-value-chains, includng rare-earths and other materials, a  manufacturing powerhouse covering all aspects of production and utilization, and external connectivity through global Belt and Road linkages. 

China's current global green energy dominance is well documented in the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Renewables 2023 Report (released Janury 2024). See its Executive Summary and a Reuters report of 11 January 2024. 

According to the IEA report, China will account for 56% of renewable energy capacity additions in the 2023-28 period. China is expected to increase renewable capacity by 2,060 gigawatts (GW) compared with the rest of the world's 1,574 GW addition. China accounts for almost 90% of the global upward forecast revision, consisting mainly of solar photovoltaic (PV). 

The IEA report flags up China's 80‑95% share of global green energy supply chains. Its solar PV manufacturing capabilities have almost doubled since last year, "creating a global supply glut," says the IEA.

Nevetheless, the IEA points out that China already accounts for 53% of the world's 2,095 GW of operating coal-fired generating capacity, a share likely to increase in coming years as more coal plants are retired in the developed world. So China is likely to achieve its declared goal of net zero carbon emission (carbon neutrality) by 2060 only during the final years before the target.  

Why Beijing insists on Russia's inclusion in any peace talks on Ukraine; why Biden suddenly offers an olive branch over nuclear armament talks with Russia and China

Exclusive recorded interview (in English) on 19 March with MIC Izvestia, the largest Russian-language multi-media channel based in Moscow, with 4 TV channels, 5 websites and the oldest Russian newspaper Izvestia. 

China's mediating role in the Israel-Hamas conflict

My thoughts in reponse to the following media questions - 

How do you think China perceives and responds to the current Israel-Hamas conflict within the broader context of its foreign policy and global diplomatic engagements?

China cannot avoid condemning terrorism to innocent civilians of any country, Israel included, as China had itself suffered from acts of terrorism in Xinjiang. However, condemning any side will not achieve sustainable peace. Hence Bejing is adopting a multi-pronged approach: sending a special envoy to consolidate
positions in the Arab world and Iran; maintaining dialogue with the US and Israel; leading a motion for humanitarian ceasefire in the UN Security Council, where it's China's turn for chairmanship; and supplying humanitarian aid to Gaza.

The Palestinian Authority has almost lost its legitimacy in the eyes of the Palestinian people, who have continued to suffer marginalization and de-humanization under the Israeli occupiers, including continued confiscation of their land, monopolizing their water resources, and regular harassment by the Israeli military.

Hence Hamas' plot to trigger the current Gaza crisis, to rally support of the entire Arab and Muslim world for their long-standing fight for respectable statehood.This explains President's Xi Jinping's urge for resuscitating the Two-State Solution, which is slowing gaining international traction.

The Gaza conundrum, however, has wider game-changing implications globally. While the Biden administration is embroiled over Gaza, it has become increasingly hard pressed to supply enough ammunition to Ukraine. Political appetite is fast waning for throwing billions more money into the Ukrainian blackhole without any significant turn-around in routing out Russian occupations. The situation is becoming more critical with ever-higher Israeli demand for supply of similar ammunitions over Gaza.

When push comes to shove, it is becoming clear that Capitol Hill's priority is Israel instead of Ukraine. A possible new Trump presidency is very likely to throw Ukraine under the bus, as he was reported as saying that as President, he could end the Ukraine war in one day.

The Europeans, meanwhile, are already strapped in grave economic difficulties. Their populations are becoming tired and worried about this seemingly endless war of attrition. In these circumstances, it is questionable whether Ukraine could sustain the war through 2024, even before a new-term US President enters the White House. If so, this would mean Russia would be able to dictate terms of any ceasefire and claim victory in the eyes of the world. That's why Putin is now confident enough to start preparations for his bid for two more 6-year terms as President.

What is likely to follow is perhaps a fatal blow to America's claim for global leadership. A more assertive Middle East is seeing its energy exports more in tune with China as the world's largest energy customer, not to mention China's centrality in the global supply and value chain as the world's largest trader and manufacturer, Western "de-risking" notwithstanding.

At the same time, US hostilities are pushing Russia and Iran even closer to China, forming what the late Brzezinski called a mighty "anti-hegemonic coalition" (The Grand Chessboard, Basic Books, New York, 2016 (p.55)), which is set to upend America’s self-proclaimed leadership of the global order.

China has no appetite (nor capabilities) to replicate US global leadership. What it wants is hopefully a more multipolar world, where countries with diverse ideologies and stages of development can coexist peacefully, cooperating where they can on bilateral or regional socio-economic development as well as global
challenges like Climate Change, pandemics, nuclear non-proliferation, terrorism, drug trafficking etc.

2. In your assessment, could China effectively contribute to mediating and facilitating a resolution to the Israel-Hamas conflict? What are the potential challenges and opportunities in this regard?

As a relatively friendly and more balanced party towards both sides of the conflict, China is well placed to play the role of an effective mediator. For any peace to be sustainable, President Xi has proffered the Two-State Solution right from the start of his intervention.

Taking advantage of China’s term to chair the UN Security Council, China has brokered a UN resolution calling for immediate humanitarian ceasefire over Gaza. The vote in the 15-member council was 13 for the Resolution and one (US) veto, with the UK abstaining.

Given Israel's overwhelming armament and aerial bombardment in crowded quarters in Gaza, destroying already stretched civilian hospitals and shelters, most global public opinions, those in Western nations included, are outraged by the continuing inhuman civilian carnage and suffering, including many women and
children.

Popular resentment has been restraining some of the excesses of the Israeli military, but fails to stop the Israeli insistence, regardless of the United States, that a precondition for peace must be the total eradication of Hamas.

However, the crux of the matter is NOT Hamas, which has resorted to terrorism on the Israelis only to gather momentum for the realization of Palestinian people’s long-suffering claim for respectful statehood, including their ancestral land and water rights in Palestine. Hence, the imperative for a permanent and sustainable Two-State Solution. But Israel, undeterred by any moderation of allies, remains recalcitrant.

3. What unique diplomatic approaches or strategies could China bring to the table in supporting peace efforts and de-escalation in the region?

What China wants is a peaceful Middle East, which is a key conduit for its Belt and Road Initiative linking China more closely with the Global South and beyond.

Beijing is likely to double-down on coordinating humanitarian responses with all stakeholder countries on both sides, not only Israel, the United States, and Europe, but also Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries in the Arab League, along with the UN Secretary General, with a view possibly to convening a global forum for sustainable peace in Palestine.

China is also likely to continue playing an ever more proactive role in the United Nations in support of the UN Charter of respecting each country’s sovereignty, the bedrock of China’s foreign policy.

The recent callous US veto to an almost unanimous UN resolution calling for immediate humanitarian ceasefire over Gaza begs the question of United States constructive leading role in global governance. It also flags up the long-demanded reform of the United Nations Security Council. Click here