No, says Richard Haass, President of US Council on Foreign Relations. The Pandemic Will Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It , he writes in Foreign Policy on 7 April, 2020, reminding us that "not every crisis is a turning point", harking back to his earlier tome A World in Disarray (Penguin Press, New York, 2017).
Outlined in The Global Analyst of June 2020 are Ten Reasons Why the Coronavirus Crisis Will Spawn a Brave New World of Discord.
An epochal rivalry for global dominance between the US and China will intensify whoever is in the White House. While the US retreats from obligations as global leader, China remains ill-fitted and unwilling to usurp America's role.
In face of mounting headwinds, China is emerging from Covid-19 with a more sober view of its geo-economic and geopolitical trajectory. Nevertheless, as China is the first to recover from the pandemic while the US tops the world with total Covid-19 cases approaching 3 million, China may well be able to overtake the US economy sooner than expected, before 2030. Click here
What is more, obscured by demonization, the legitimacy of China's development model is gaining global ascendancy. This is supported by Washington D.C.-based research institutions like the 2020 Edelman Trust Barometer (page 7) and PEW Center people's satisfaction ratings . These consistently show that China's people trust their government much more compared with Western democracies.
With Covid-19, China's draconian city lockdown measures are now copied by many countries, Western democracies included. With long-established systemic racism in the United States highlighted by the George Floyd tragedy, the universality of capitalistic democracy is beginning to be questioned. Huntington's Clash of Civilizations is coming home to roost.
Nevertheless, nationalism in on the rise across the globe. With a pervasive "China Scare", national security in personal protective equipment (PPE) and high-tech services such as 5G is likely to drive a global wave of decoupling from China, causing trade flow disruptions.
However, as China has already been intricately embedded in the global multi-faceted supply and value chain, meaningful decoupling is easier said than done. Challenges as described in Strategic US-China decoupling in the tech sector (Hinrich Foundation) and China dominates medical supplies, in this outbreak and the next (New York Times) are instructive.
Meanwhile, as contagion risks remain, more and more business interactions are being conducted using Zoom or equivalents. With the advent of 5G, big data, and the Internet of Things, how businesses are transacted and how people live and work are migrating to a new normal. Robots and virtual experiences are becoming commonplace. A lot more will work from home. The quantity and features of offices and housing are likely to be transformed. There will be a paradigm shift in urban and global connectivity.
As Henry Kissinger opined in the Walls Street Journal on 3 April, 2020, The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order.
The world will never be the same!