CHINAwatch

Global Trade War Esclates

Live TV discussion  on NewsX, India's fastest growing English-language global TV news channel claiming 100 million viewers.

US - China Tariff War : What next?

Live exclusive TV interview on 8 April 2025 with WION TV channel of India. 

US tariffs

BackChat on 8 April 2025 with RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) 

 

Reading the tea-leaves of Beijing's "Two Sessions"

BackChat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)on 12 March 2025.

Paradigm Shifts Upending the World Order 2025

A PowerPoint presentation on 4 March 2025 to a business group meeting at HSBC HQ confernence room.
Download Paradigm Shifts Upending the World Order 2025 - EGN Group meeting 4 March 2025

 

Gradual increase of Mainland China's retirement age - implications

BackChat on RTHK (Radio Television Hoing Kong) on 19 September 2024.

China-Africa Summit 2024 - What are the implications

Backchat  on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) on 6 September,  

Innovation in the Fast Lane: Discussing China’s Auto Industry - CSIS podcast

An insightful podcast dated 12 August 2024 interviewing Michael Laske, a sage American veteran auto industry consultant in China. The podcast is part of the China Field Notes series hosted by leading US China expert Scott Kennedy,  senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Washington D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Both experts have decades of leading hands-on field work inside China. Their balanced take throws light on how, with an all-society ecosystem of joint ventures, technological manpower, government direction, and mastery of full-spectrum supply and value chains including a digitally-connected economy,  China has emerged relatively rapidly from a student of internal-combustion-engine (ICE) cars to becoming the new Detroit for electric vehicles (EVs), automobiles of a hopefully-greener 21st century. 

 

How to read China correctly in the coming Third Plenum

Yao Yang is a Professor and Director of the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University. On June 23, he delivered a speech at an event hosted by Zhenghe Island, a network platform for elites. The following are game-changing highlights gleaned from a translation by "Pekinology", an online platform affiliated with the Beijing-based world-renowned think-tank Center for China and Globalization (CCG): 

(a) China's globalization in the 80's and 90's was characterized by integration and convergence with the then-much-admired American model, not only economically, but socially and to a certain extent, politically. However, after the 2008 financial crisis and increasingly after 2010, China became convinced of its own people-centred socialist path led by the Communist Party of China (CPC). 

(b) This led to America elites' "disappointment" with China. As a self-proclaimed pinnacle nation, America considers its development path the only legitimate one for the world, intolerant of China's alternative model. The United States does not want China to play a leading role in regional or global affairs, seen as inimical to US leadership. This has driven an irrational, emotion-charged bipartisan pushback against China on all fronts.

(c) However, in economics, rationality inevitably prevails. U.S. trade war and attempts at technological decoupling or "de-risking" have not succeeded in isolating China globally.  Although US-China direct trade is declining, America’s dependence on Chinese products is rising. By rules of origin, China’s share of U.S. imports has increased from about 20% in 2018 to 25%. This is because Chinese companies have embraced a global strategy, with many exports shipped from other countries instead of directly from China. (N.B. China's production is globally inter-connected, even for products not qualified as "Made in China", in terms of materials, parts, components or logistics. China remains the largest trading partner for 128 out of 190 nations across the globe.) 

(d) The United States has hiked tariffs on China. Donald Trump said that if elected, he will increase tariffs on China to 60% and impose a 10% tariff on the rest of the world. It is likely that Europe would follow suit. However, China's cost-quality advantage is huge, ranging from 50% to 100% compared to Europe. Even with a 21% tax, most consumers are unlikely to budge. (N.B. If Chinese goods are totally debarred, American consumers and their European counterparts would struggle to cope as virtually all consumer products these days are either Made in China or contain Chinese materials or components). 

(e) Absorbing knowledge and technology from other countries, China's past 40 years of Reform and Opening Up (1978-2018) saw a socio-economic revolution, dismantling class differences and shifting towards enterprise and individualism. However, this has fed wide-spread and deep-seated corruption and unbridled commercialization of compulsory education and excessive financialization of real estate and personal loans. These challenges have shocked social stability and must be rectified. 

(f) The coming Third Plenum will announce the goals for 2035, detailing objectives to be achieved in a  New Era of "High Level Socialism". This is likely to involve comprehensive modernization, tied to China's goal of doubling its income per capita by 2035 through technological competition. Next is Common Prosperity, adjusting the income distribution structure, improving the social security system, and promoting integrated urban and rural development. Third, high-level openness to the outside world (N.B. capitalizing on China's ubiquitous global connectivity, ushering in a new phase of globalization).

Last but not least, against US-led  unprecedented stranglehold on China's access to nano semiconductor chips and other cutting-edge technologies, I should add that China is likely to double down on advancing technological self-reliance, building on its solid foundation as the latest acknowledged "scientific superpower".  

Challenges and Prospects of the Chinese Economy: an exclusive in-depth video interview with Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights

Video interview of 8 May 2024 with Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights . YouTube link

The online lady interviewer hails from Istanbul, Turkey.