CHINAwatch

World's Largest Dam To Be Built By China Raises Concerns In India, Bangladesh - CNN-News18

Live TV panel discussion on 14 January 2025 on CNN-News18 of India. See South China Morning Post report of 18 January. 

 

China-Africa Summit 2024 - What are the implications

Backchat  on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) on 6 September,  

Xi Thinks China Can Slow Climate Change. What if He’s Right?

So asks Jacob Dreyer in a New york Times Guest Essay dated 19 April 2024. Dreyer is a Shanghai-based  American editor and writer focused on the intersection of the Chinese political economy and science.

Dreyer's essay ticks all the right boxes on China;s green energy surge. These include China's powerful state-directed model in achieving all-of-society outcomes to combat Climate Change, its unbeatable cost-competitiveness for green energy businesses including EVs (electric vehicles), and its imperatives of achieving energy security through reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels through hostile transit "choke points" (e.g. the Malacca Strait controlled by America's Seventh Fleet). 

To these should be added China's possession of comprehensive and globally-oriented green-energy supply-and-value-chains, includng rare-earths and other materials, a  manufacturing powerhouse covering all aspects of production and utilization, and external connectivity through global Belt and Road linkages. 

China's current global green energy dominance is well documented in the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Renewables 2023 Report (released Janury 2024). See its Executive Summary and a Reuters report of 11 January 2024. 

According to the IEA report, China will account for 56% of renewable energy capacity additions in the 2023-28 period. China is expected to increase renewable capacity by 2,060 gigawatts (GW) compared with the rest of the world's 1,574 GW addition. China accounts for almost 90% of the global upward forecast revision, consisting mainly of solar photovoltaic (PV). 

The IEA report flags up China's 80‑95% share of global green energy supply chains. Its solar PV manufacturing capabilities have almost doubled since last year, "creating a global supply glut," says the IEA.

Nevetheless, the IEA points out that China already accounts for 53% of the world's 2,095 GW of operating coal-fired generating capacity, a share likely to increase in coming years as more coal plants are retired in the developed world. So China is likely to achieve its declared goal of net zero carbon emission (carbon neutrality) by 2060 only during the final years before the target.  

China's mediating role in the Israel-Hamas conflict

My thoughts in reponse to the following media questions - 

How do you think China perceives and responds to the current Israel-Hamas conflict within the broader context of its foreign policy and global diplomatic engagements?

China cannot avoid condemning terrorism to innocent civilians of any country, Israel included, as China had itself suffered from acts of terrorism in Xinjiang. However, condemning any side will not achieve sustainable peace. Hence Bejing is adopting a multi-pronged approach: sending a special envoy to consolidate
positions in the Arab world and Iran; maintaining dialogue with the US and Israel; leading a motion for humanitarian ceasefire in the UN Security Council, where it's China's turn for chairmanship; and supplying humanitarian aid to Gaza.

The Palestinian Authority has almost lost its legitimacy in the eyes of the Palestinian people, who have continued to suffer marginalization and de-humanization under the Israeli occupiers, including continued confiscation of their land, monopolizing their water resources, and regular harassment by the Israeli military.

Hence Hamas' plot to trigger the current Gaza crisis, to rally support of the entire Arab and Muslim world for their long-standing fight for respectable statehood.This explains President's Xi Jinping's urge for resuscitating the Two-State Solution, which is slowing gaining international traction.

The Gaza conundrum, however, has wider game-changing implications globally. While the Biden administration is embroiled over Gaza, it has become increasingly hard pressed to supply enough ammunition to Ukraine. Political appetite is fast waning for throwing billions more money into the Ukrainian blackhole without any significant turn-around in routing out Russian occupations. The situation is becoming more critical with ever-higher Israeli demand for supply of similar ammunitions over Gaza.

When push comes to shove, it is becoming clear that Capitol Hill's priority is Israel instead of Ukraine. A possible new Trump presidency is very likely to throw Ukraine under the bus, as he was reported as saying that as President, he could end the Ukraine war in one day.

The Europeans, meanwhile, are already strapped in grave economic difficulties. Their populations are becoming tired and worried about this seemingly endless war of attrition. In these circumstances, it is questionable whether Ukraine could sustain the war through 2024, even before a new-term US President enters the White House. If so, this would mean Russia would be able to dictate terms of any ceasefire and claim victory in the eyes of the world. That's why Putin is now confident enough to start preparations for his bid for two more 6-year terms as President.

What is likely to follow is perhaps a fatal blow to America's claim for global leadership. A more assertive Middle East is seeing its energy exports more in tune with China as the world's largest energy customer, not to mention China's centrality in the global supply and value chain as the world's largest trader and manufacturer, Western "de-risking" notwithstanding.

At the same time, US hostilities are pushing Russia and Iran even closer to China, forming what the late Brzezinski called a mighty "anti-hegemonic coalition" (The Grand Chessboard, Basic Books, New York, 2016 (p.55)), which is set to upend America’s self-proclaimed leadership of the global order.

China has no appetite (nor capabilities) to replicate US global leadership. What it wants is hopefully a more multipolar world, where countries with diverse ideologies and stages of development can coexist peacefully, cooperating where they can on bilateral or regional socio-economic development as well as global
challenges like Climate Change, pandemics, nuclear non-proliferation, terrorism, drug trafficking etc.

2. In your assessment, could China effectively contribute to mediating and facilitating a resolution to the Israel-Hamas conflict? What are the potential challenges and opportunities in this regard?

As a relatively friendly and more balanced party towards both sides of the conflict, China is well placed to play the role of an effective mediator. For any peace to be sustainable, President Xi has proffered the Two-State Solution right from the start of his intervention.

Taking advantage of China’s term to chair the UN Security Council, China has brokered a UN resolution calling for immediate humanitarian ceasefire over Gaza. The vote in the 15-member council was 13 for the Resolution and one (US) veto, with the UK abstaining.

Given Israel's overwhelming armament and aerial bombardment in crowded quarters in Gaza, destroying already stretched civilian hospitals and shelters, most global public opinions, those in Western nations included, are outraged by the continuing inhuman civilian carnage and suffering, including many women and
children.

Popular resentment has been restraining some of the excesses of the Israeli military, but fails to stop the Israeli insistence, regardless of the United States, that a precondition for peace must be the total eradication of Hamas.

However, the crux of the matter is NOT Hamas, which has resorted to terrorism on the Israelis only to gather momentum for the realization of Palestinian people’s long-suffering claim for respectful statehood, including their ancestral land and water rights in Palestine. Hence, the imperative for a permanent and sustainable Two-State Solution. But Israel, undeterred by any moderation of allies, remains recalcitrant.

3. What unique diplomatic approaches or strategies could China bring to the table in supporting peace efforts and de-escalation in the region?

What China wants is a peaceful Middle East, which is a key conduit for its Belt and Road Initiative linking China more closely with the Global South and beyond.

Beijing is likely to double-down on coordinating humanitarian responses with all stakeholder countries on both sides, not only Israel, the United States, and Europe, but also Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries in the Arab League, along with the UN Secretary General, with a view possibly to convening a global forum for sustainable peace in Palestine.

China is also likely to continue playing an ever more proactive role in the United Nations in support of the UN Charter of respecting each country’s sovereignty, the bedrock of China’s foreign policy.

The recent callous US veto to an almost unanimous UN resolution calling for immediate humanitarian ceasefire over Gaza begs the question of United States constructive leading role in global governance. It also flags up the long-demanded reform of the United Nations Security Council. Click here

US-China De-Risking Policy - Risks and Opportunities for Hong Kong

A Hong Kong business lunheon presentation on 11 November 2023. Download US-China De-Risking Policy - Risks and Opportunities for HK

Deciphering the Xi-Putin meet in Moscow

Exclusive live interview with RT on 21 March 2023

20th Party Congress - Common Prosperity

Backchat with RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) on 24 October 2022.

China's ruling party approves sweeping reshuffle at end of week-long gathering in Beijing

Exclusive live TV interview on 22 October with PressTV on the 20th Party Congress and its global implications 

Building China 3.0 - Final Sprint toward the China Dream

The above named is a full lecture for the Ljubljana Confucius Institute, Slovenia, including Q & A, open to worldwide participation. The lecture (free of charge) was  simultaneously promoted by the World Strategic Insights based in Rome.

The Zoom lecture took place on Thursday, 17 February, 2022 at 0900 hours European time (1600 hours Beijing/Hong Kong time). The lecture attracted 135 applicants with 76 physically present, pandemics and other obstacles notwithstanding. 

Full details of the lecture's contents are here. A copy of the PowerPoint presentation in PDF format is as follows. Download Building China 3.0. A voice-over video recording of the PowerPoint lecture is here. Also re-published on World Strategic Insights based in Rome. 

Owing to time constraints, one question not given time to answer was on China's hukou (household registration) problem, which created a massive underclass of rural migrants. A podcast Caste aside: The future of China's peasants captures the conundrum. 

The ongoing hukou reform remains a huge, moving challenge. You can't flood the big cities with migrant, poorly-educated villagers. You can't leave them in limbo. Covered in the PowerPoint presentation is China's massive high-speed rail network expansion (doubling to 70,000 km), to connect ALL cities with a population of over 500,000 people, with modern motorways connecting ALL towns with population over 200,000 inhabitants, however remote, by 2035. Many fourth-tier cities and towns are in a largely rural region, including millions of villages. A great many are formed into inter-connected "urban clusters".(Slide 109 of 114) Along with the vibrant digital economy, this hopefully will provide many opportunities for the "rural" population. 

China's Sixth Party Plenum, the New Cold War, and the Contest for new Global Order

PowerPoint presentation to the EGN Founding Chairmen’ Group on 9 December, 2021. 

Download Sixth Party Plenum New Cold War and Contest for new Global Order