What's New

According to the book review on Amazon.com, "Far greater than just China, the new Asian system taking shape is a multi-civilizational order spanning Saudi Arabia to Japan, Russia to Australia, Turkey to Indonesia—linking five billion people through trade, finance, infrastructure, and diplomatic networks that together represent 40 percent of global GDP. China has taken a lead in building the new Silk Roads across Asia, but it will not lead it alone. Rather, Asia is rapidly returning to the centuries-old patterns of commerce, conflict, and cultural exchange that thrived long before European colonialism and American dominance. Asians will determine their own future—and as they collectively assert their interests around the world, they will determine ours as well".

Evidently, Khanna's Asia is far more extensive, extending to Russia and the Middle East. A more circumscribed study of the emerging dominance of Asia comes in the form of a discussion paper dated September 2019 by McKinsey Global Institute- The future of Asia: Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization .

The paper makes the following salient observations -

(a) By 2017, Asia accounted for 42% of global GDP in terms of purchasing power parity, ahead of 40% of Europe and North America combined. By 2040, Asia's share is expected to increase to 52% in PPP terms and 46% in real terms, representing 39% of global consumption.

(b) Global cross-border flows are shifting toward Asia on seven of eight dimensions—trade, capital, people, knowledge, transport, culture, resources, and the environment. The only flow that has declined is waste (environment).

(c) Asia’s integration is increasing with a shift toward regionalization. 60% of goods traded, 71% of investment in start-ups and 59% of foreign direct investment (FDI) are intraregional, with 74% travelling within the region.

(d) Asia is not monolithic but rich in diversity, resilience, and competitive strengths, yet highly integrated and mutually complimentary in metrics of innovation, market, labour, capital and cultural diversity.

(e) There are Four Asia's: Advanced Asia (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea) with strengths in technology, capital and high-end consumption; China, a class of its own, acting as Asia's anchor an hub in connectivity and a hotbed for innovation; Emerging Asia (Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) with dynamism in labor productivity, growth potential and intraregional connectivity; and India and Frontier Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Fiji, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Maldives, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) with a large, young population and broader range of external trading relationships outside Asia.

(f) By 2040, China's GDP is likely to reach $36 trillion, bigger than the rest of the Four Asia's combined ($31 trillion)

(g) As China shifts from labour-intensive manufacturing, thanks to US-China trade war, Emerging and Frontier Asia's are picking up a share of this relocation. Advanced Asia and China are leading start-ups in Emerging Asia.

(h) Asia is a dynamic hub for people, idea and culture flows. By 2018, outbound international airline passengers had risen to more than 415 million. A number of cities are becoming more cosmopolitan, such as Seoul, Bangkok, Manila, Hanoi, and Auckland.

It is evident that the 21st century is being redefined by Asia's growing connectivity and gravitas, where China is likely to exercise an outsized role. Apart from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the New Development Bank, and the Belt and Road, China and much of the rest of Asia will be even more closely bound together when the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement is concluded by the end of this year. This will cover ASEAN and all their respective free trade agreement partners, representing 47.4% of world population, 32.2% of global economy, 29.1 % of global trade, and 32.5% of global investment flows.

There are also good reasons for China to be welcomed and to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam effective December 2018.

Against the above background, any grand strategy to isolate or decouple China may increasingly seem like a pipedream.

Posted at 04:41 PM in Asia, Banking, BRICS, China Business, China's Rise, Cities, City Profile, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Lifestyle, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, South China Sea, Sports, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Travel, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | Permalink | Comments (1)

September 18, 2019

The real story of Hong Kong's protests

Hong Kong's protests have been raging for over 100 days. At the front end, violence and lawlessness continue to escalate. Hong Kong's legislative council chamber was broken into and vandalized. Petrol bombs, hand catapults, metal rods, corrosive liquids, bricks, even military-grade bows and arrows and army knives are used or found. Barricades are erected to block roads. Police stations are surrounded and threatened, staff quarters included. Policemen's spouses and children are harassed. The International Airport was grounded to a halt several times. Mass Transit Railways offices and turnstiles are regularly ransacked. Some tactics and slogans are reminiscent of the Cultural Revolution.

The vast majority of protesters are peaceful but are ambivalent about their militant co-protesters. The protests have many ordinary citizen supporters in different walks of life. All harbour a deep sense of frustration, helplessness and anger against the Hong Kong government and Beijing. Many seem to think that One Country Two Systems has failed to deliver. The fear is that One Country is increasingly threatening to swamp the Two Systems. Democracy in the circumstances has no future. Hong Kong needs to be "liberated" with a "Revolution of Our Times", so go the protest slogans.

The protests were first triggered by an extradition bill (following a Taiwan murder case) that seeks to avoid Hong Kong becoming a haven for criminal fugitives from the Mainland and elsewhere. However, this was deemed to remove a crucial judicial firewall between Hong Kong and Mainland China. The way the government tried to bulldoze the bill through ignited a wildfire of fear, discontent and social anger. Anti-establishment legislators are having a field day, expecting big wins in coming elections, reversing fortunes in recent years.

Increasingly, protest violence is directed at symbols of Beijing's authority. The national emblem of Beijing's representative office building was defaced. Hoisted national flags are burned or thrown into the harbour. Recently some Hong Kong students were arrested in Tibet for unfurling pro-Hong Kong independence banners there. A video clip shows someone spraying Chinese words of "Liberation" and "Revolution" on an overhead signboard on a Mainland highway. Download WhatsApp Video 2019-09-02 at 7.58.24 PM

The United States is seen to be upfront in backing these protests. Star activist Joshua Wong met with senior US Consulate officials. Prominent activist Jimmy Lai, founder of influential anti-establishment newspaper The Apple Daily, was given unprecedented audience with US Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. He is reported to have openly admitted that his aim is to topple President Xi, and that he is prepared to die for it! Click here Joshua Wong has also recently said that Chief Executive Carrie Lam's resignation won't change matters, only the downfall of the Communist regime. At US Congressional hearing on HK Human Rights and Democracy bill , Joshua Wong, Denis Ho and other activists said as much.

American NGO's like the National Endowment for Democracy and other international institutions like the Oslo Freedom Forum seem to have been involved in funding or training leading activists in civil disobedience and other protest tactics. Click here and here

Unsurprisingly, Beijing has come to the conclusion that these protests are no longer about the now-abandoned and declared "dead" extradition bill. With foreign instigators, the objective seems to bring down the Hong Kong government and provoke Beijing's intervention with the People's Liberation Army (PLA), a trap to ensnarl China and to arrest its rise. References are made to a "color revolution" with hints of "terrorism". Beijing has hardened its line.

Across the border, the PLA is on high alert, its local garrison standing ready. There are talks about invoking colonial-era draconian Emergency Powers to stamp out violence and restore law and order. In both camps, there is a divisive breakdown of trust in Beijing, the Hong Kong government, the police, and even the judiciary. Hong Kong is on the edge of a cliff. A sense of foreboding prevails.

Fake news and biased reporting abound on both sides. What are the real facts? Quo vadis, Hong Kong? The following may offer some perspectives -

100 Days of Protests - A SCMP multi-media chronical (Added on 17 September, 2019)

Download Hong Kong - the Place Where We Grew UP

Police raid at Prince Edward Station

Download UNDERCOVER IN HONG KONG (Undercover report on why some HK's young people turn to violence)

Fair reporting - G7 Research Group

Posted at 01:08 PM in China's politics, China's Rise, Current Affairs, Democracy, Geopolitics, Hong Kong, UK, United States | Permalink | Comments (0)