What's New

2018 MEDays Forum, 7-10 November, Tangier - IN THE AGE OF DISRUPTION: FINDING THE NEW PARADIGMS

As a sponsored Speaker, I spoke on (a) Reshaping China-Africa relations including the Belt and Road Initiative (b) Africa, Asia, and South America - Realistic, concrete and effective South-South Partnership and (c) Trump. Kim, Macron, Putin, MBS - From Leadership to Disruption.

2018 MEDays Forum, Tangier

Speaking Notes: (a) Download China-Africa Business - B&R - Reshaping relations (Card Version) (b)  Download Africa Asia and South America - Realistic concrete and effective South-South Partnership (Card Version) (c)  Download From Leadership to Disruption (Card Version)

Interview - A new Africa-China alliance dedicated to free trade, multilateralism and world peace

Some photos

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Tangier and Casablanca music video with movie theme song

 

 

US moderate rhetoric helped Asian marlets rebound

My live interview with Press TV on 1 November, 2018. 

US-China Special Report: Intensifying Geopoltical Rivarly will Worsen in 2019, outlasting any trade deal

In a report dated 21 October, the Eurasian Group, a New York-based geopolitical consultancy, prefers not to call the intensifying US pushback against China a new Cold War. It postulates that -

"This is not the start of a new cold war. That framework is more misleading than explanatory....and overstates the degree to which this latest pushback is finely orchestrated or a true departure from existing policy. Pence’s speech was quickly cobbled together as administration officials scrambled to publicly explain Trump's earlier charges of Chinese interference in US politics. Recent actions taken had long been in the works in various parts of the bureaucracy and are largely extensions of the policies of past US administrations. 

Rather than a cold war, we are at an inflection point in which the great power rivalry between the two countries is intensifying and overwhelming the more cooperative aspects of the relationship. The US political and business establishment has concluded that past modes of engagement with China have failed to check the increasingly assertive policies of President Xi Jinping. With the ballast of a vocal and effective pro-China lobby gone, there is little to mitigate against US policies that confront China as a strategic competitor across a growing range of fields and geographies. This shift would have taken place even under a Hilary Clinton presidency, but the potential for extreme volatility is particularly high under a Trump administration that is eager to project strength against China and is less encumbered by concern for the multilateral system and its rules. 

This dynamic will likely cause continued deterioration in the relationship in 2019, even if Trump and Xi are able to reduce near-term tensions at the G20 meeting in late November. That is bad news for a lasting solution on trade and technology disputes and creates the more acute risk of a full-blown foreign policy crisis if either side miscalculates over flashpoints such as the South China Sea and Taiwan."

Download US China relationship_Eurasia Groupa 21 October 2018

Call it what you will. There is more than one way to skin a cat. While the stress in US-China relations has been building up before the Trump administration, Vice President Mike Pence's Hudson Institute speech drops all pretense of any possible amicable relationship with China. It's unprecedented in its breadth and intensity, far more than what needs to simply justify Trump's earlier accusation of Chinese interference in US politics.

At the start, Pence paid tribute to Michael Pillsbury, Hudson Institute senior fellow and Director for China Strategy who chaired the event. His 2015 book "The Hundred Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower" is widely held to have inspired almost all of Pence's fiery rhetoric. Pillsbury is no stranger to the White House. The sober Pence was unlikely to fire way on all fronts without clearing the lines beforehand with his boss. Click here Moreover, the US is now pushing back against China not only on trade, finance and economics, but militarily and ideologically. 

The Eurasia Group rightly emphasizes that US-China rivalry is unlikely to subside before Trump's 2020 re-election campaign. Even by that time, the fundamental rivalry between the two Great Powers is likely to persist. Many of the worries about a rising China will remain bipartisan. This turning of the tide in US-China relations lends itself to increasing confrontation with "All Measures Short of War " Click here

Is this situation similar to the US-USSR Cold War in potential military conflict and multi-regional rivalry? Perhaps not. But is this declaring a new Cold War against China in all but name? It takes two to tangle and China remains anxious to avoid an all-out Cold War with the United States. But China's rise is unlikely to be successfully derailed any time soon. Click here So US-China power rivalry is likely to sustain and possibly intensify in coming decades. The Thucydides Trap has sprung, at least short of a hot war. The term New Cold War is not as far-fetched as it may first appear. 

Hong Kong rejects visa of British journalist

Exclusive radio interview with BBC World Service News Hour on 6 October, 2018

Trump's foreign policy is all branding

An article dated 3 October, 2018 by Judah Grunstein, Editor-in-Chief of World Politics Review, a New York-based bipartisan publication, points out that President Trump's much-hyped transformational foreign policy initiatives are beginning to look like old wine in a new bottle bearing his name. Examples include his latest declared triumph on reinventing NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement), his tactic on NATO members to pay more, his deal on North Korea, and his trade talks with the European Union which borrow heavily from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) which he has torn up. 

The article contends - 

"That means that the other major crises on Trump’s docket, rather than escalating, might end up being defused in a similar fashion. Certainly China will try to wind down its own trade war with the U.S. by offering enough superficial concessions to allow Trump to declare victory and come home. Iran, too, might begin to see the appeal of pursuing a Trump-rebranded nuclear accord that differs only marginally from the one he withdrew from in May."

"On the more worrying side, NAFTA and NATO both have long-standing constituencies in the U.S. that make tearing them up politically costly".

"It’s possible that the U.S. might have benefited from the approach that fueled Trump’s rise in the early years of his public life. A brash risk-taker who questioned sacred cows and challenged conventional wisdoms might have reinvigorated U.S. foreign policy in the face of a rising China and resurgent Russia. Instead, the later Trump has prevailed, promising much, delivering little and making sure his name is featured prominently on the marquee."

Whether the article's assertions turn out to be fully substantiated remains to be seen. The litmus tests are over North Korea, Iran and China. Nevertheless, evidence shows that there is already more than a grain of truth in Grunstein's observations. 

Hong Kong island south freshly-renovated luxury sea-view four-bedroom duplex for rent

View details in English and Chinese

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View combined photo dossier

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Controversial West Kowloon highspeed rail opens, linking Hong Kong to Mainland China's 25,000 km high-speed network

TV interview on 22 September, 2018 with Channel NewsAsia, Asia's leading TV news channel based in Singapore. My slot starts from time-counter 03:15.

What the New US Nuclear Posture Means for Northeast Asia

An in-depth report in  The Diplomat of 9 August by Masashi Murano, research Fellow at the Okazaki Institute (Tokyo).  This show that in response to advanced nuclear threats from Russia, and highly-developed anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities of China and North Korea, the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) "commits to maintaining and modernizing the U.S. nuclear triad — intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers — and positioning dual capable aircraft (DCA) that can be deployed globally as an important element in the extended deterrence toolkit."

What apparently hasn't been assessed are risks of resorting to low-yield (0.3 kilotons) nuclear missiles. Although much less devastating than the Hiroshima nuclear bomb (15 kilotons), the nuclear destruction and fall-out can be frightening. Even meant largely as a deterrent, its proliferation and readiness are likely to increase the probability of use. Potential rapid escalations are not amenable to easy control. Any unintended level of escalation due to perceived existential national security could plunge the world into an all-out nuclear war. 

Andrew's September 2018 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 7,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my September 2018 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website) 

Greetings! After an extended visit to Europe, I am back in Hong Kong for a long, hot summer. Temperatures are rising everywhere. An all-out great-power tussle masked as a trade war is being played out between the US and China. America First continues to be pressed home across the globe, weaponizing hegemonic powers in finance, trade and currency. Not even allies are spared. Decades of established global rules and norms are being up-ended. The only constants appear the laws of nature and the law of the jungle. As the big elephants fight, the "wary rest" are all hedging their bets. The world order as we know it is fracturing. Would all the king's horses and all the king's men come to the rescue if the king wants to start anew?  How will China respond to the new paradigm? 

Nevertheless, US frustrations with China's trade practices are widely shared. It is in China's interests to address them. However, any fundamental redress necessitates structural reforms to the Chinese economy already bracing from headwinds. China's retaliation against America's tariffs has so far been measured and targeted, with an eye to negotiations. But what reforms can China implement quickly? How would the trade war play out? 

Amidst this great anxiety, the following may offer some fresh perspectives. 

Trade war

US-China rivalry for power masked as a trade war (An in-depth analysis) 

Trade War - live TV interview on TRT and radio interview on BBC (Cantonese channel) (A brief snapshot) 

Behind the controversy over Huawei and ZTE (Live TV interview on ABC (Australia Broadcasting Corporation)

Trade war is part of push-back against China's challenge of a US-defined world order (An in-depth analysis) 

US-China Trade War - Cooperation, not War, is key to Mutual Prosperity (Feature article in The Global Analyst, a leading business journal in India) 

Never mind the trade war, this is how China and the US can both get what they want (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post, a shortened version of the foregoing) 

A Multilateral and Strategic Response to International Predatory Economic Practices (US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing) 

Trade Architecture Needs to Accommodate Both US and Chinese Systems (A Hinrich Foundation article)

China fights back against America's threat to the China Dream but success is not assured (An analysis) 

Geopolitics

Great Decisions 2018 - China and America: the new geopolitical equation (A presentation by the Dean of the School of Strategic Land Power at the US Army War College in Pennsylvania) 

Top 10 largest economies in 2050 according to PricewaterhouseCoopers 

Understanding China

The Four Traps China may fall into (Article by Yangzhong Huang of the Council on Foreign Relations, New York)

Economy and finance

Debunking Myths about China's Economy (Interview by Yukon Huang, Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington D.C)

The real battle fields of US-China rivalry and China's bond market (A Gavekal Research report)

How much is China opening up its financial sector? (An Economist Intelligence Unit article) 

China’s Financial Liberalization: Time to Restart (A research note by BBVA, a Spanish bank) 

Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative - Risks and Opportunities (An analysis based on research of The Economist and the Trade Development Council) 

Military

An Accounting of China's Deployments to the Spratly Islands (An Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative article)  

North Korea

North Korea accuses the US of double-dealing - What is happening? (Ins and outs of the latest twists and turns) 

What is the significance of the Trump-Kim deal, including views by US allies (Live interview with Radio Sputnik of Moscow)

What to make of Giuliani's remark and prospects for a deal on eve of 12 June Trump-Kim Summit (An analysis including live interview on RT) 

Trump's North Korean Summit on/off (Live TV interview on RT on 25 May)

Energy

China's Electricity Sector - A Lantau Group Report, April 2018

Ecology and Sustainability

China releases 2020 action plan for air pollution (A China Dialogue report) 

Greening the Belt and Road Initiative (A WWF-HSBC Report) 

Is China heading towards a water crisis? (A report for the House of Commons Foreign Relations Committee) 

Urbanization and smart cities

China's city clusters - a new urbanization model? (An analysis and a panel discussion) 

Hong Kong

Building the Future - how science and technology links the future of Hong Kong to the mainland (A NATURE business report) 

What a smart city blueprint would look like - a Hong Kong example (A SCMP infographic summary of the Hong Kong Smart City Blueprint Consultancy Study)

Middle East

How Iran has been gaining in the Levant and how changing dynamics may reverse its fortune (A Britain Israel Communications and Research Center (BICOM) report)

How China and Germany could cooperate on salvaging the Iran nuclear deal? (Interview with Radio Sputnik of Moscow)

My coming speaking engagement in Tangier, Morocco

I have accepted an invitation as a Sponsored Speaker at the Amadeus Institute's 2018 MEDays Forum in Tangier, Morocco from 7-10 November. I will be speaking on The New Silk Road to Africa, South-South Partnership and Disruptive Leaders. I will be uploading my presentations on my website in due course. 

Cheer up and chill out

My family summer holiday highlights in music videos

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese. 

Cross-border M & A propositions

You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially. 

Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He is now based in Abu Dhabi working on private equity with the Marya Group. His personal email address is terencehyleung@gmail.com

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited (Founded in London, re-incorporated in Hong Kong)

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13) Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank) Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)

Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010) Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)

Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)

Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)

Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)

Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002

Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List    

North Korea accuses the US of double-dealing - What is happening?

My live TV interview with RT on 27 August, 2018.