What's New

North Korea wants Pompeo removed from nuclear talks

Live interview of 18 April on PressTV

Andrew's May 2019 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 7,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my May 2019 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website) 

Greetings! 

The US-China trade war seems heading for a truce. While unlikely to end US rivalry on a broad front, it is touted as the "granddaddy of all China deals", addressing an unprecedented panoply of deep-seated concerns with China's trade practices plus robust enforcement mechanisms. Similarly, Europe has woken up from its "naivete" with China. Ditto apparently for the rest of the world with a tidal wave pushing back against the perceived "debt trap" of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been in overdrive doing a good job of stirring up a global "China Scare". 

 

Yet, with its economy stabilizing from headwinds, China seems not to have backtracked from a confident global march. The Belt and Road has gained acceptance from Italy, a G7 country, soon to be joined by Switzerland, a respected neutral country. Meanwhile Greece has expanded China's Central and Eastern European line-up to "seventeen-plus-one". The signature initiative is also making headway in the Arabian Peninsula, the Caribbean and Latin America. 

 

On 5G technology set to define the 21st century, not many European countries have followed America's hymnbook of excluding Huawei. If anything, the all-out blackening of Huawei seems to suggest anxiety with the Chinese tech giant's clear 5G global market leadership.  

 

Clearly China must be doing something right and something wrong. As will be evident from the US-China trade deal, what may be perceived as China's concessions tally with China's critical reform needs in order to realize the China Dream of the "Two Centenary Goals" - to attain a fully-fledged moderately well-off (xiaokang) society by 2021, the Party's centenary, and a world-respected "strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious, and modern socialist country" by 2049, the People's Republic's centenary. 

 

There are signs that China is beginning to come to terms with these thorny reforms critical for its onward trajectory. If so, a new era of international relations may unfold, more amenable to "free and fair trade" and multilateralism, notwithstanding rising protectionist tendencies. 

 

Hopefully, the following may offer some fresh perspectives for reading a dramatically changing world, in more sense than one. 

 

US-China trade war

Why is a deal on US-China trade war imminent and what will that mean? (Live TV interview with TRT World)

US-China trade talks moving along but with what realistic outcome? (Live TV interview with Aljazeera English Channel)

US-China trade talks - where to go?  (Live interview with TRT World)

Money Talks - Trade Wars (Live interview with TRT World) 

 

Technology war

What's so scary about Huawei?  (BBC World Service documentary) 

Huawei's 2018 outsized earnings despite US-led pushback (Live TV interview on Aljazeera English Channel) 

The Huawei story - why US feels threatened (Live interview on Radio Sputnik)

Huawei takes US to court (Live TV interviews with TRT and PressTV)

China slams US charges against Huawei (Live interview with RT) 

How US-China technology rivalry is likely to play out in coming years - Huawei and "supersonic trains" (An in-depth analysis)

US's latest pushback against Huawei (Live interview on Radio Sputnik) 

China to step up its basic research (China Daily article)

 

A digital world

Why 5G is set to change the world and why China is leading  (An in-depth analysis)

McKinsey Global Institute- Value chains, China included, have become less trade dependent and more digitally driven (A Mckinsey Global Institute report)

Impact of artificial intelligence on international trade - Brookings Institution (A Report)    

 

All-out pushback against China

China is facing not just a trade war with the US but an assault on all fronts. Can it survive, and even thrive? (SCMP Op-ed)

Prospect of a New U.S.-China Cold War (An analysis) 

Why US "Freedom of Navigation Operations" in the South China Sea are becoming a "New Normal" (Live interview with PressTV) 

Is Hong Kong a new source of tension in China-U.S. ties? (TV panel discussion on CGTN) 

 

Course correction

Course Correction: Toward an Effective and Sustainable China Policy (Commentary on Asia Society Centre on US-China Relations 51-page report) 

US-China trade war may turn out to be a watershed for promising changes (An in-depth analysis)

How US trade war and other efforts to thwart China’s rise have actually accelerated its reform and innovation (An analysis)

US-China trade talks good for both sides? (Live interview with TRT World) 

China’s New Foreign Investment Law (A China Briefing report)

 

China's trajectory

Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (An in-depth analysis) 

GBA rivalry for human capital changes Hukou game - Ming Pao 15.04.19 (How the hukou reform will be accelerated to create 100 million urban citizens by year end) 

National Plan for structural re-alignment of industries in North East, East, Central, and West regions, November 2018 (An in-depth analysis)

The China Compass Q2 2019 - overview of China's economy (An analytical report) 

Headlines about China’s weak growth are somewhat misleading (A short critique) 

The global economy's second sun  (Global influence of the RMB)

China's busy year in the Arctic (A report in The Diplomat)

US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) 2019 China Military Power report (China's military advances)

 

World economy

Next year, US expected to lose top spot to China as world's largest economy, to be overtaken by India as no.2 by 2030 (Standard Chartered Bank and Brookings Institution reports) 

Paramount flashpoints in 2019 (Feature article in The Global Analyst) 

 

World order challenges

What the New Zealand slaughter, the Yellow Vests, hardcore Trump supporters and China’s Rise tell us about the world (PowerPoint presentation to the Hong Kong EGN Founding Chairmen's Group)

What does the New Zealand shooting of Muslims tell us? (Live interview with RT)

Climate change and trade agreements - Friends or foes? (An Economist Intelligence Unit report) 

 

North Korea

US-North Korea deal is possible (temporary standoff notwithstanding) (Live interview with PressTV) 

Trump says he will leave sanctions on North Korea in place - What next? (Live interview with PressTV)

Does North Korea no longer want to denuclearize?  (Live interview with PressTV)

 

Assange, Venezuela, Iran, and India

Julian Assange's possible extradition to U.S (Live interview with PressTV)

How to deal with the Venezuela situation in UN Security Council (Live interview with RT)

Venezuelans rally as US sees coup bid losing steam (Live interview with PressTV)

Munich Security Conference - Pence accuses Iran of sponsoring terrorism (Live interview with PressTV)  

India's Budget 1 February 2019 (Two live interviews on WION TV of India)

 

Cheer up and chill out

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese.

Cross-border M & A propositions

You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially. 

Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He has been based in Abu Dhabi working on private equity for the past two years. He is about to return to the financial services sector in London. His personal email address is terencehyleung@gmail.com 

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

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Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20) 

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List  

Julian Assange's possible extradition to U.S

Live interview with PressTV on 13 April, 2019

Trump says he will leave sanctions on North Korea in place - What next?

Live TV interview with PressTV on 12 April, 2019

What the New Zealand slaughter, the Yellow Vests, hardcore Trump supporters and China’s Rise tell us about the world

PowerPoint presentation to the Hong Kong EGN Founding Chairmen's Group on 12 April, 2019. 

Download What the New Zealand slaughter the Yellow Vests hardcore Trump supporters and China’s Rise tell us about the world

Hong Kong island south freshly-renovated luxury sea-view four-bedroom duplex for rent

View duplex details in English and Chinese

Download Royalton-phase-i-duplex-118-pokfulam-road-letting-details-revised April 2019

The duplex was completely renovated in February 2019. New marble-type flooring throughout living area on 12/F with new matching ceramic floor-tiles upstairs. All walls and wardrobes etc completely re-painted white. See selection of photos below.

View this photo (double panoramic sitting room) View this photo (Versace and Poggenpohl kitchen) View this photo (classic wilding staircase) View this photo (upstairs corridor) View this photo (ensuite guest bedroom) View this photo (opposite bedroom with wardrobes) View this photo (extra stand-alone bathroom) View this photo (panoramic master bedroom with ensuite bathroom through walk-in wardrobe area) 

View slide show of photo gallery showing configuration and amenities including carparking space

Download Royalton Duplex - Photo Gallery Slide Show 

Climate change and trade agreements - Friends or foes?

The Economist Intelligence Unit's March 2019 Report  examines the degree to which the WTO and four contemporary free trade agreements (CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership), EU–Singapore, EU–Canada and Korea–Australia) are supporting, or hindering, countries' climate change goals.

The Report identifies seven opportunities for boosting climate-friendly trade flows - Removal of tariff (1) and non-tariff (2) barriers on environmental goods and services; (3) Explicit limits on fossil fuel subsidies; (4) Border adjustment carbon taxes; (5) Green procurement; (6) Approval of non-discriminatory green subsidies; and (7) International co-operation on Climate Change goals. 

While most of the Report's recommendations are laudable and pragmatic, its recommended introduction of a “climate waiver” permitting countries unilaterally  to impose trade-restrictive climate policy response measures may serve to drive a wedge between advanced and developing countries at a different stage of development under the guise of Paris Agreement obligations. 

What does the New Zealand shooting of Muslims tell us?

Live TV interview with RT on 15 March, 2019

Does North Korea no longer want to denuclearize?

Live interview with Press TV on 15 March, 2019

Why 5G is set to change the world and why China is leading

This is explained in a Ted Talk-styled video clip featuring a prominent internet researcher in Putonghua. He terms 5G mankind's "7th information revolution", transiting from (1st) word of mouth, (2nd) the written word, (3rd) printing, (4th) wired telephone, (5th) television, and (6th) the internet. A world apart from previous technologies, 5G is considered the battleground (including the military) for global dominance in the 21st century. 

The history of mobile communication technologies bears witness to rivalry for global standard-setting. The US dominated 1G driven by American giants such as Motorola and AT&T. For 2G, the Europeans pushed back by wooing China to embrace GSM as the leading standard. This helped ascendance of European multinationals like Ericsson, Nokia and Alcatel.

For 3G, the Americans turned the table by partnering with China, dividing global standards between TD-SCDMA (Chinese), WCDMA (US) and CDMA2000 (European). For 4G, the Europeans fought back by wooing China again, winning the commanding heights between TD-LTE (Chinese) and FDD-LTE (European). 

For 5G, thanks to Huawei, by perfecting technology and chips and quietly winning over telecom infrastructure in 160 countries worldwide, China is now by far the technology and market leader. 

5G is an epochal game-changer in six distinct areas: (1) super-fast, (2) ubiquitous, (3) energy-lite, (4) virtually no time lag, (5) highly secured and (6) connectivity of everything (IoT).  Every car, personal device and home appliance including clothing, shoes and toilet bowls promises to be connected. This makes possible completely autonomous self-driving taxis, instantaneous personal health monitoring and alerts, ubiquitous PM2.5 monitoring etc. The list is as fertile as human imagination. It is set to change businesses, economics, politics, the military, peoples, societies, and cultures. 

Throughout the development, China has built a massive homeland internet infrastructure. Compared with 300,000 internet stations in the United States, China has 6.1 million. With 1.5 billion mobile phones now in use, by 2025, China is likely to have 10 billion 5G "terminals", including personal accessories, home appliances and domestic facilities. 

Panicked by China's burgeoning 5G dominance, the Trump administration resorts to wracking Huawei through a global smearing campaign, banning Huawei products in the United States and allies, and leveraging the long arm of US laws. 

Nevertheless, through demonstrations of professional integrity, quality and secure infrastructure, Huawei seems to be winning over some key US allies, including UK, Germany, France and Italy. While sharing US security concerns, absent concrete evidence, they have ruled out outright ban of Huawei infrastructure and products, subject to further safeguards and scrutiny. 

Meanwhile, it seems that the US is quietly preparing to use tariffs against car and other imports from Europe and Japan. It seems that India may soon be added to the list of Trump's global America First trade war. If so, this would represent a new opportunity for China as the other powers hedge their bets.