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Oultine Development Plan for the Quangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Released on 18 February, 2019, the Greater Bay Area Development Plan is designed to transform this massive urban connurbation into a regional, if not global, innovation-driven, holistic, liveable economic powerhouse by 2022-35. A comparison with other leading GBAs of New York, Tokyo, and San Francisco shows that the Guangdong-HK-Macao GBA is the largest in popoluation (about 70 million), largest in area (about 56,000 sq km), by far the largest container throughput, by far the busiest aviation hub, and ranks second only to the New York GBA as a world leading financial center. 

The Plan hopes to capitalize on the Area's excellent geographical location, robust economic growth, concentration of key innovative factors, advanced level of internationaization, massive infrastructural connectivity, solid complentarity between cities, Hong Kong and Macao's One Country, Two Systems and linkages with China's Belt and Road Initiative. 

As far as Hong Kong is concerned, the Plan aims " To consolidate and enhance Hong Kong’s status as international financial, transportation and trade centres as well as an international aviation hub, strengthen its status as a global offshore Renminbi (RMB) business hub and its role as an international asset management centre and a risk management centre, promote the development of high-end and high value-added financial, commercial and trading, logistics and professional services, etc., make great efforts to develop the innovation and technology industries, nurture emerging industries, establish itself as the centre for international legal and dispute resolution services in the Asia-Pacific region, and develop into an international metropolis with enhanced competitiveness." 

In the coming years, there will no doubt be intensifying competition between leading cities in the GBA, challenges of closer socio-economic integration with Hong Kong and Macao's One Country, Two Systems, as well as repercussions from freer flow of goods, services, people, talent, ideas and capital.

If managed with flair and imagination, the Area could well emerge as a global GBA paragon. The test of the pudding, however, is in the eating.

Munich Security Conference - Pence accuses Iran of sponsoring terrorism

Live TV interview with Press TV on 16 February, 2019 

How to deal with the Venezuela situation in UN Security Council

Live TV interview on RT of 12 February, 2019

Hong Kong island south freshly-renovated luxury sea-view four-bedroom duplex for rent

View duplex details in English and Chinese

Download Royalton-phase-i-duplex-118-pokfulam-road-letting-details-1-1

The duplex was completely renovated in February 2019. New marble-type flooring throughout living area on 12/F with new matching ceramic floor-tiles upstairs. All walls and wardrobes etc completely re-painted white. See selection of photos below.

View this photo (double panoramic sitting room) View this photo
(Versace and Poggenpohl kitchen) View this photo (classic wilding staircase) View this photo (upstairs corridor) View this photo (ensuite guest bedroom) View this photo (opposite bedroom with wardrobes) View this photo (extra stand-alone bathroom) View this photo (panoramic master bedroom with ensuite bathroom through walk-in wardrobe area) 

View slide show of photo gallery showing configuration and amenities including carparking space

Download Royalton Duplex - Photo Gallery Slide Show 

Venezuelans rally as US sees coup bid losing steam

My live interview with Press TV on 3 February, 2019

India's Budget 1 February 2019

My two live TV interviews on 1 February with WION, India's leading commercial TV station. 

First instalment (scroll to time counters to 02:00 and 17:46 for my appearances) 

Second instalment (scroll to time counter 05:26 onwards) 

 

 

China's busy year in the Arctic

A report in The Diplomat of 30 January, 2019 points out that "as an Arctic stakeholder, China’s position has evolved from being a “passive rule-follower” to becoming a regional “rule-maker.” Since release of its Arctic White Paper in January, 2018, China has steadily moved to becoming a "near Arctic state", as an "indispensable force in Arctic affairs".

Administratively, the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration (CAA) is now placed directly under the new Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), aided by its Department of Maritime Economy and Strategic Planning and the Department of International Cooperation. 

China mounted its ninth Arctic expedition in 2018, laying down an expanding network of scientific monitoring devices across the Arctic. In September, China launched its first domestically-built state-of-the-art icebreaker, Xuelong 2. A tender for the construction of a nuclear-powered icebreaker was issued last summer. In October, the China-Iceland Arctic Science Observatory was opened in northern Iceland. In December, the “Arctic Environment Satellite and Numerical Weather Forecasting” project was launched, slated to “deepen China’s participation in the governance of the Arctic, and help build the Polar Silk Road." 

The Russian Yamal LNG project remains the centerpiece of China’s nascent Polar Silk Road, carrying Russian LNG to a Chinese port. This will be served by a fleet of 15 polar-capable LNG carriers, of which six have been delivered. 

The global economy's second sun

According to the above-titled report in the Financial Times (Aphaville) dated 29 January, 2019, using proprietory algorithms, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire of Eurizon SLJ Asset Management find that the global influence of China's economy is as powerful as those of the United States and the European Union combined. 

The above finding tallies with Arvind Subramanian's earlier work Eclipse - Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance, Petersen Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, September 2011. The book finds that more currencies move in tandem with the renminbi, the Chinese currency, than with the US dollar. 

McKinsey Global Institute- Value chains, China included, have become less trade dependent and more digitally driven

A MGI Report released in January 2019 -  Globalization in transition: The future of trade and value chains - points out the following- 

Global value chains are undergoing five structural shifts 

• Goods-producing value chains have grown less trade-intensive
• Services play a growing and undervalued role in global value chains
• Trade based on labor-cost arbitrage is declining in some value chains
• Global value chains are growing more knowledge-intensive
• Value chains are becoming more regional and less global

There is a sea change in the geography of global demand

• Emerging markets will consume almost two-thirds of the world’s manufactured goods by 2025, with products such as cars, building products, and machinery leading the way. By 2030, developing countries are projected to account for more than half of all global consumption. These nations continue to deepen their participation in global flows of goods, services, finance, people, and data
• More of what gets made in China is now sold in China. By 2030, China is projected to account for 12 cents of every $1 of worldwide urban consumption. This trend is contributing to the decline in trade intensity. China exported 17% of what it produced in 2007. By 2017, the share of exports was down to 9%. This is on a par with the share in the United States but is far lower than the shares in Germany (34 %), South Korea (28%), and Japan (14 %). Exports from advanced economies to China has increased from 3% in 1995 to 12% by 2017.
• The rise of domestic supply chains in China and other emerging economies has decreased global trade intensity.

Digital platforms, logistics technologies, and data-processing advances will continue to reduce cross-border transaction costs and enable all types of flows.

• Automation and additive manufacturing change production processes and the relative importance of inputs
• New goods and services enabled by technology will impact trade flows

Given the shifts in value chains, companies need to reevaluate their strategies for operating globally.

As pointed out by David Dodwell in the South China Moring Post, Trump’s tariffs are targeting yesterday’s challenges, not today’s.  

Impact of artificial intelligence on international trade - Brookings Institution

The above Brookings Institution report by Joshua P. Meltzer released in December 2018 focuses on AI's potential and impact on international trade, both in goods and services, including economic growth, digital platforms, trade negotiations, big data, trade rules, protection of privacy, intellectual property, and source codes.

It is evident that AI will transform not only international trade, but how businesses compete, how cities are managed, how people conduct their daily lives, and how a nation's competitiveness is gauged. All these dimensions mutually interact in an "Internet of Things" (IoT) across the board and national boundaries in a Fourth Industrial Revolution or "Globalization.4.0". 

As AI is still developing, its full potential and impact have yet to be explored, not to mention science and the military, fields outside the scope of this report.

Download Brookings - Meltzer - AI-and-Trade_Report Dec 2018