What's New

Andrew's July 2025 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my July 2025 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What is New on my website.)

Greetings!

Entering into summer is a world hardly recognizable. With overwhelming force, incluiding a weaponized dollar, President Trump is unleashing the rule of the jungle on allies and adversaries at the expense of their sovereignty, security or economic well-being. Gone with the wind is America's credibility as defender of the "liberal world order", calling into quetion how this would "Make America Great Again". 

China is standing up to Trump's bullying, relying on its all-encompassing rare-earth stranglehold. How the US-China trade deal will materialize remains to be seen, Trump's wishful narrative regardless. Many countries currently negotiating with the United States are likely to watch this with abated breadth, hoping to pick up signals for their own best deal. 

Meanwhile, wary of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance's unreliability, Europe is re-arming itself and is recalibrating its relationship with China and the Global South, ideological and other differences notwithstanding. The Middle East is now in flames as an emboldened Israel doubles down on military operations in Gaza and Iran, regardless of pan-Arabic support for the Palestinian demand for statehood and the rest of the world's counsel against escalating military conflicts.   

How all these interlocking dynamics will play out may take months, if not years, let alone weeks. What seems certain is that the world order will not remain the same again.

Hopefully, the following may offer some insight into the smoke and mirrors. 

Trump's "Grand Strategy"
Trump’s Grand Strategy to Reshape the World: Would it Succeed? Research essay in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights). Republished in French, Spanish, Russian, Arabic (all with audio clips) and in Chinese (with an audio clip in putonghua).Download President Trump's Grand Strategy - Will it Succeed (PowerPoint presentation)

Trade War and US-China Rivalry
US-China Trade War: Treasuries, the New Battleground? Feature article in The Global Analyst)
From "Made in China" to "Rules Made BY China"   (A China Perpectives YouTube expose) 
China's AI chip race(TRT World YouTube feature story)
US and China Reach New Trade Deal Framework on Rare Earth Exports (Two excluisve live TV interviews on NewsX World) 
Secret US–China talks end with deal announcement (Live TV interview on NewsX World)  
Tariff War: Trump Hints At End To Spot With China - Does Trump have a "Grand Strategy''?  (Live TV interview on NewsX World)  
Trump vs China: 90-Day Tariff Pause Announced. Will Trump's Tariffs Lead to Global Recession?(Live TV interview on NewsX World)
China-US Tariffs War: Trump Pauses Tariffs Amid Global Uncertainty (Live TV interview on NewsX World)
US-China Trade Talks Considered : China Weighs U.S. Tariff Talks - Who is blinking first? (Live TV inteerview on NewsX World)
US shipbuilding ambitions - impact on China's shipping trade and shipbuilding industry (Live TV interview on Channel News Asia (CNA)
Trade War: China Fights Back (Feature article in The Global Analyst)
How to read the tealeaves over Trump’s ‘mad’ tariff war on the world (Op-ed in China Daily)
US - China Tariff War : What next? (Live TV interview with WION TV)
Trump reignites tensions with China - Implications (Live TV panel discussion on AnewZ, an Azerbaijan English Channel)  
Global trade war escalates (Live TV interview on NewsX World)
China urges US to end its "hegemonic" view (Live TV interview on NewsX World)
US tariffs (Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) 

Education restrictions 
US clampdown on Chinese students including Hong Kong in US universities (Exclusive TV interview on Aljazeera English)
US Targets Chinese Students Over National Security Fears (Live TV interview on NewsX World)

Economy
Asian Markets Plunge as Trump's Tariffs Spark Global Trade Fears (Live TV interview on NewsX World)
Reading the tea-leaves of Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang's emhasis on China's science and technoloy at the Boao Forum (Live radio interview on RTHK Newswrap)
China's 5% Growth Goal - is it reachable? (Feature article in The Global Analyst)

Hong Kong
Hong Kong should reposition itself in face of an upended world order (Op-ed in China Daily with abridged Chinese version in Wenweipo)

China's vision for world order
Azerbaijan embraces Beijing's Global Civilization Initiative (Exclusive live TV interview on AnewZ) 

Global South
President Xi addresses China-Latin America Forum in Beijing (Live TV interview on NewX World)
Implication of China-Latin America Forum in Beijing  (Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) 
ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit - implications for China including Hong Kong (Backchat on RTHK)
Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi in China Ahead of Nuclear Talks with US in Oman (Live TV interview on NewsX World)
Xi Lands in Vietnam Amid US-China Tariff Tensions (Live TV interview on NewsX World)
Commentary on the China-brokered historic Saudi-Iran rapprochement (An indepth analysis of whys and wherefores) 

Regional conflicts
Taiwan Detects 17 Chinese Military Assets Nearby - implications  (Live TV interview on NewsX World)
China asserts sovereignty against Japan in South China Sea waters  (Live TV interview on NewsX World)
India-Pakistan military clashes over Kashmir (Live TV interview on NewsX World)

Antarctica
Scramble for Antarctica  (Live TV discussion on TRT World The Newsmakers) 

Cheer Up and Chill Out
A 10-point Multimedia Outlook on Life  (Music video)
Inspirational videos and excerpts for life's down-moments

Summer sojourn in London
I will be staying in London during the period 3 July through 4 September this year. Whilst in London, I would be happy to meet up or accept speaking engagements/consultations in person. 

International investment opportunities
I am on the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has joined the firm as Senior Partner. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout.

Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Google Teams at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong
As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks
My posts are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What's New .A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies
I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help. If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my data bank permanently.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA  
International and Independent China Strategist
Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Company Limited

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters 

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C. 

Download Wikistrat Excellence Award

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)  

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Contributing author, Politics Today

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners

Download Silk Road Partners - corporate profile 24-06-2022 

Download Silk Road Partners 2023

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構 (28.03.2023)  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

Azerbaijan embraces Beijing's Global Civilization Initiative

Live TV interview on Azerbaijan's national TV AnewZ on 10 June 2025 (My appearance starts from time counter 26:00)

Scramble for Antarctica?

Live TV discussion  of 28 May on The Newsmakers show with TRT World, London 

ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit - implications for China including Hong Kong

BackChat on 27 May with RTHK (Radio Televison Hong Kong) (Click on the bottom panel ASEAN Summit)  

Taiwan Detects 17 Chinese Military Assets Nearby - implications

Exclusive TV interview on 20 May 2025 with NewsX World, India's fastest-growing Enlgish-language global news TV channel claiming a total of 100 miliion viewers. 

Implication of China-Latin America Forum in Beijing

Live radio interview on BackChat, Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK) on 16 May 2025

Commentary on the China-brokered historic Saudi-Iran rapprochement

My observations on the China-brokered historic Saudi-Iran rapprochement are as follows –

The two main sects of Islam – Sunnis led by Saudi Arabia and Shiites led by Iran have common fundamental religious beliefs, exemplified by the “Five Pillars of Islam” -

• Shahada (Profession of Faith):Declaring that there is no god but Allah and that Muhammad is his messenger. 
• Salat (Prayer):Performing five daily prayers at specific times, facing Mecca. 
• Zakat (Charity):Giving a portion of one's wealth to the poor and needy. 
• Sawm (Fasting):Abstaining from food and drink from dawn to sunset during the month of Ramadan. 
• Hajj (Pilgrimage):If able, performing a pilgrimage to Mecca, visiting sacred sites, and observing rituals.

The Sunnis and Shiites have historically been split by other religious differences, sectarian conflicts and mutual rivalry for influence in the Middle East, the Levant and beyond. Their hostile relationships, often violent, waxed and waned, being shaped by seismic historical turnings including the rise and fall of the Ottoman Empire, the Iranian Revolution, and the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia%E2%80%93Sunni_relations

What have been driving the historic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023 are as much a reflection of President Xi’s art of diplomacy as the following game-changing geostrategic dynamics –

• Much of the continuing turmoil in the Middle East in recent decades have been caused or worsened by America’s hegemonic unilateralism. Witness the disastrous war on Iraq and Afghanistan. These only serve to destabilize the region and erode its economic development, affecting both Saudi Arabia and Irana’s long-term development interests.

• Emboldened by consistent American support driven by its powerful Jewish lobby, Israel is doubling down on eradicating Hamas, despite a global outcry against the ensuing humanitarian atrocities affecting hundreds and thousands of innocent Arab and Islamic lives, including many women, children and babies. while stifling the Palestinians’ long-fought demand for statehood, a cause finding common resonance amongst the Islamic and Arab communities worldwide, including Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both nations want to play an important role in solidarity for the revival of the Middle East as a more stable region for economic growth and prosperity.

• The United States is no longer the world’s biggest customer of fossil energy which both Saudi Arabia and Iran have in abundance. In fact, the U.S. is now a major competing energy exporter. Their biggest energy customer is now China. The Middle East’s America-centric petrodollar era is gone.

• In any case, the Age of Oil is coming to an end, not for lack of oil, similarly for the Age of Stone, as former Saudi Minister of Petroleum Sheik Yamani presciently forewarned. All Gulf countries have national 2030’s Vision Plans for economic renaissance pivoting away from oil to trade, investments, technologies, new energies, sustainable development, with global partnerships especially in the Asia-Pacific region where China is the world’s largest manufacturer and trader and the largest trading partner for over 120 countries worldwide, compared with some 58 for the United States. China is becoming increasingly tech-savvy. Witness China’s success in building and operating its own space station from scratch (and the recent emergence of its AI marvel DeepSeek).  

The rapprochement has game-changing implications for all parties concerned: China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, (and the United States) -

• For President Xi, the rapprochement would greatly facilitate the expansion of his signature Belt and Road Initiative, harking back to China's glorious past, which would cement his vision for a Global Community of Common Destiny, to be cemented by his Global Security Initiative, Global Development Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative. 

• It would also strengthen one leg of a pivotal tri-parti partnership - China, Russia and Iran, pushed together by America's unwise aggression against all three countries, forming an "anti-hegemonic alliance" forewarned by the late Zbigniew Brzezinski, Henry Kissinger's mentor, in his seminal book The Grand Chessboard(page 55).

• For Iran, the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, supported good Sunni–Shia relations. (see Wikipedia note above), which unfortunately have been thwarted by internal and external upheavals over centuries. Now the arc of history is turning, fanning prospects of a much united Middle East to usher in another golden era of Islamic prosperity. 

• For Saudi Arabia, the assassination of the Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 soured relations with the United States, not helped by the reality that the US, now a net energy exporter, was no longer a big customer of Saudi oil. 

• Trump brokered the Abraham Accords to woo Saudi Arabia for a coalition with Israel against the latter's existential  enemy of Iran. However, as demonstrated by Trump's latest visit to the Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, while wanting to maintain good relations with the United States as a security umbrella (including US military presence within the Kingdom), doesn't want to sacrifice its hard-won rapprochement with Iran. Hence the outcome of Trump's latest Saudi visit was all about investments, walking back on the prospects of a re-energised anti-Iran Abraham Accord.

India-Pakistan military clashes over Kashmir

Live TV discussion on 9 May with NewsX World, India's fastest-growing global English-language world news channel claiming 100 million viewers. 

President Trump's Grand Strategy - Will it Succeed

A PowerPoint presentation at a Hong Kong EGN Group meeting of 30 April, 2025.
Download President Trump's Grand Strategy - Will it Succeed (PDF)

 

China-US Tariffs War: Trump Pauses Tariffs Amid Global Uncertainty

Live TV interview on 10 April 2025 with NewsX, India's fastest growing English-language global TV news channel claiming 100 million viewers.