What's New

Andrew's January 2025 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my January 2025 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What is New on my website.)

Greetings! May I first wish you a Merry Christmas and a happy and fulfilled 2025!

With Donald Trump returning to the White House following a stunning election victory, bets across the world only a few months back are all up in the air. He has gained decisive control over America's key levers of power, including the House, the Senate, the Supreme Court, and throughout the Federal bureaucracy, becoming the most powerful US President not seen in decades.

Trump has vowed to end the Ukraine War "in one day". He has touted to impose massive tariffs on China and allies alike to turn the table on trade and jobs in America's favor. He has already lined up a formidable team of anti-China hawks, stroking worries about a potential clash with China, rattling global stability.  

Having learnt the hard way from decades of American bipartisan anti-China hostility and from Trump's first term, Beijing has been much better prepared to deal with Trump 2.0 disruptions, banking on his penchant for the "Art of the Deal" to create a new golden era of American prosperity without wars as his history-defining legacy. 

Meanwhile, much of Europe and the rest of the world has been making a serial beeline towards Beijing, probably to hedge their bets. 

With Trumpian unpredictability, the coming four years will not be short of fireworks as well as smoke and mirrors. Hopefully, some of the following analyses may throw up helpful perspectives. 

US-China relations
What does a second Trump presidency mean for the world? (Op-ed in China Daily)
China Beware: Trump Tariffs Are Coming (In-depth article in The Global Analyst)
How serious are Trump's tariff threats? (Pre-recorded English interview for Russian state media Izvestia for broadcast in Russian) 
Trump’s return: How will US-China ties fare under new administration? (Article with Anadolu Agency, Turkey's state media) 
The 5 major blind spots pushing the US into conflict with China  (Op-ed in China Daily)
China's Most Ambitious Space Projects Are Making America Worried  (YouTube podcast by Astrum, a space exploration channel)
What's behind China's sanctions on American drone makers?  (Live exclusive TV interview on RT International) 

World Order
How Geostrategic Dynamics are Coalescing Towards a Paradigm Shift in the Fractured World Order (Op-ed with Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights)
Ten Reasons Why 2024 Marks an Inflexion Point Upending the Global Order (A virtual PowerPoint presentation for the CESRAN 2024 Annual Conference in Venice). \
What does the BRICS Summit hosted by Russia signify?  (Pre-recorded exclusive TV interview with Viory Video News Agency based in Abu Dhabi) 
Ukraine Now Ready for Ceasefire! The Truth Finally EXPOSED! (A succinct expose by US-based YouTuber Cyrus Janssen with over 1 million fans.) 

India
What impact does the coming Trump administration have on China and India? (Live TV panel discussion on India's CNBC TV18) China-India border-patrolling "breakthrough" ahead of the Moscow BRICS Summit   (Live TV panel discussion on India's CNBC TV18)　

Data Centres
Geopolitics of Data Centres (An in-depth analysis plus a PowerPoint presentation)  

China's economy
Reading the Tea Leaves of China’s Ailing Economy (Full-length feature article with The Global Analyst) 
China's dominance of global EV supply chains (Pre-recorded English interview for Russian state media Izvestia for broadcast in Russian) 

Middle East
Al-Assad’s fall in Syria: What’s at stake for China? (Aljazeera report with quotes)
Should Israel and the United States Attack Iran’s Nuclear Program Now?  (A succinct analysis) 

South Korea
South Korea in political turmoil  (Exclusive live interview with Press TV)

Iran
Role of diplomacy in resolving world conflicts (Pre-recorded video interview for Iran's Young Journalists Club)
U.S Presential Election on Election Day - pre-recorded TV interview on Iranian state television Second interview (Exclusive interviews) 

Belt and Road Initiative
Broader Total Quality Lessons for the Belt and Road Initiative (Published joint research paper) 

Hong Kong
Hong Kong plays key role in national development (Exclusive in-depth interview with RTHK on whys and wherefores)
Hong Kong policy secretary reshuffle   (Backchat discussion on RTHK (Radio Television HK)
2024 Chief Executive Policy Address: talent and youth affairs (Hong Kong Chief Executive's Policy Address) 
Vibrant Hong Kong：Episode 66 ( Low Altitude Economy / Flute / Belgian Days / India by the Bay) (Special RTHK feature program) 
香港一國兩制價值觀與1997年前比較 (多伦多粤语 YouTube 频道在线采访)

Cheer Up and Chill OutAl-Assad’s fall in Syria: What’s at stake for China?
A 10-point Multimedia Outlook on Life  (Music video)
Inspirational videos and excerpts for life's down-moments

International investment opportunities
I am on the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has joined the firm as Senior Partner. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout.

Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong
As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks
My posts are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What's New .A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies
I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help. If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my data bank permanently.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA  
International and Independent China Strategist
Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Company Limited

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters 

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C. 

Download Wikistrat Excellence Award

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)  

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Contributing author, Politics Today

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners

Download Silk Road Partners - corporate profile 24-06-2022 

Download Silk Road Partners 2023

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構 (28.03.2023)  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

Hong Kong's Policy Secretaries reshuffle

BackChat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) on 6 December 2024

South Korea in political turmoil

Exclusive live interview with Press TV on 5 December 2024

Vibrant Hong Kong：Episode 66 ( Low Altitude Economy / Flute / Belgian Days / India by the Bay)

A RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) video programme on YouTube (15 November) showing how Hong Kong is recovering some of its vibrancy as a glamorus World City, certain sentiments of doom and gloom regardless. 

Role of diplomacy in resolving world conflicts

Recorded Skype video interview on 13 November 2024 for Iran's Young Journalist Club, to be broadcast in both English and Persian on Iranian media channels. 
Download Recorded interview on Diplomacy for the Young Journalist Club of Iran 13 November 2024

U.S Presential Election on Election Day - pre-recorded TV interview on Iranian state television

Pre-recorded TV interviews broadcast on Telewebion, the streaming broadcaster for the Iranian IRIB state Television and Radio Corporation. 
Full TV program (In Perssian, my voiced-over interview appeared midway in the news clip) 
Following are the specifc segments of my interviews.
Download MP4 video clip of my TV segment (1)
Download MP4 video clip of my TV segment (2)

 

If data is the "new oil", data centres are critical refineries.

The Next AI Debate Is About Geopolitics, says the headline of an insightful Foreign Policy piece of 28 October by Jared Cohen, president of global affairs at Goldman Sachs and co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute. He reminds us that data is sometimes called the "new oil". If so, as outlined below, data centres are critical refineries. 

According to Juniper Networks, an AI network platforam, there are three phases of developing an AI model:

• Phase 1: Data preparation–Gathering and curating data sets to be fed into the AI model.
• Phase 2: AI training–Teaching an AI model to perform a specific task by exposing it to large amounts of data. During this phase, the AI model learns patterns and relationships within the training data to develop virtual synapses to mimic intelligence.
• Phase 3: AI inference–Operating in a real-world environment to make predictions or decisions based on new, unseen data.

Phase 3 is generally supported with existing data center and cloud networks. 

According to Digital Realty, a datacenter platform, "modern companies are running hugely demanding workloads on data center infrastructure. Sticking with the ChatGPT example, a recent report has predicted that training and implementing generative AI models will cost $76 billion by 2028. This figure is more than double the annual cost of Amazon Web Services (AWS), the world’s largest public cloud provider."

As Cohen explains in his Foreign Policy think-piece, "Data centers are the factories of AI, turning energy and data into intelligence. Industry leaders estimate that a few major U.S. technology companies alone are expected to invest more than $600 billion in AI infrastructure, particularly in data centers, between 2023 and 2026."

Cohen points out that AI computation is highly energy intensive, increasingly served by energy-intensive graphics processing units (GPUs) rather than central processing units (CPUs). The International Energy Agency expects that global data center electricity consumption could double as soon as 2026, driven largely by AI.

AI workloads are ultra-high-density, requiring concentrated power supplies. Data centers must operate 24/7, requiring land with access to abundant, affordable, and reliable power. Many developed markets’ electrical grids are unprepared and unused to adapting rapidly and at scale—in the United States, the lead time to build upscale electricity grid assets is up to 10 years.

The United States’ data centers are primarily based in Silicon Valley and Northern Virginia. The country needs far more power and far more differentiated data centers. America's abundant energy reserves do not translate into transmission, connectivity, or the geographical spread of data center requireements. 

As Cohen points out, China is executing its own strategy to lead in AI infrastructure, including dozens of nuclear reactors planned or under construction, one-third of clean energy investments worldwide. and a national data center initiative launched in 2022 called “Eastern Data, Western Computing”, with $6.1 billion investment in eight major data center hubs.

What is more, chips and cables that connect GPUs are made of critical rare earths such as germanium and gallium largely controlled by China. What do China’s curbs on Gallium and Germanium mean for the World?

There are currently around 8,000 data centers globally built by a diverse group of companies, demonstrating a wide array of potential partners for data center buildouts. Indeed, every country will face hard choices about where their AI workloads will run. 

Cohen points out that Government and industry are working to improve the efficiency of chips, with denser circuits and new architectures already reducing semiconductor energy needs at remarkable scale. Meanwhile, large-language model workloads require less bandwidth than traditional internet content such as images and videos, and AI applications often have different latency requirements than traditional cloud services. While the debate is far from settled, innovation may enable future data centers to be built farther away from customers.

Cohen concludes that to win in today’s high-stakes geopolitical competition, the United States will need to enlist its asymmetric advantage of global alliances and partnerships, both in the public and private sectors. Such partnerships include close allies or friendlier countries which are relatively powerful in the data center market placce. Coming to mind are countries like Canada, the Nordic countries in Europe, Japan, South Korea, India, Brazil, Vietnam, the Philippines, and the Gulf states (with subsea fibre optic cables in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf carrying  90 percent of Europe-Asia data traffic.)

What Cohen omits to mention is that global data transmission is closely related to international trade and economics, which have become much more closely interwined and interdependent. As the world's largest trader and manufacturer par excellence, China is deeply embedded in the global supply and value chain, encompassing data generation and data flows, which remain the backnone of AI development, including data centre networks, "de-coupling" or 'de-risking" notwithstanding.

As the inter-connected digital age of the 4th and 5th Industrial Revolution continues to unfold, the battle for AI data centres, like US-China great power rivalry, cannot be framed in Manichean terms. 

A PowerPoint presentation follows. Download The geopolitics of AI data centres

2024 Chief Executive Policy Address: talent and youth affairs

Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) dated 21 October 2024. (My contribution starts midway into the audio clip.) 

Should Israel and the United States Attack Iran’s Nuclear Program Now?

A Foreign Policy podcast of 15 October Counterpoint (in partnership with the Doha Forum) features a heated debate between Matt Kroenig, vice president of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor of government at Georgetown University, and Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University. 

On the hawkish side, the debate reflects deeply-embedded "American Exceptionalism", that the United States remains able and justified to take matters in its own hands to shape the world according to its own agenda. It also highlights an American tendency to shoot first and face consequences later. The disastrous "War on Terror" comes to mind. 

American hawkishness (which resonates outside this debate) ignores the reality that America's "unipolar" moment has already passed. Aside from China and Russia, more and more nations are now able to pull their weight to challenge American diktats in safeguarding their own national interests. Not least Iran and other Arab countries.

What is more important, as highlighted by Babara Slavin, pulling the U.S. trigger on Iran's nuclear installations now risks missing hidden nuclear assets in Iran's myriad underground facilities while provoking and galvanizing the Iranian nation for quickened moves to acquire nuclear weapon capabiliites. 

There is also the worse-case scenario of an uncontrollable escalation towards nuclear Armegedden, as frightfully portrayed in New York Times best-selling author Annie Jacobsen's well-researched and timley book Nuclear War: A Scenario (Dutton, New York, 26 March, 2024)

Ukraine Now Ready for Ceasefire! The Truth Finally EXPOSED!

Video clip dated 19 October of US-based Cyrus Janssen, a Mandarin-speaking "Sinophile", geopolitical analyst, investor, speaker, and social media influencer with over 1 million fans across his social media platforms. The podcast succinctly summarizes the dynamics leading to the Ukraine war, and why it is likely to end sooner than expected, regardless of Zelentsky's theartrics.