This Wikistrat simulation Click here presented by Dr Thomas Barnett focuses on Africa's "New Tilt to Asia", particularly China.
It examines the security implications for energy, food and other resources, Africa-based terrorism, and the impact on African countries' development including democracy.
Using a matrix paradigm, it postulates possible strategic options for the United States, Europe, India, the IMF and the World Bank, the Jihadists, and the Africa continent itself, depending on whether China's presence in Africa proves to be beneficial and whether the resultant response should be combative or accomodative.
If anything, this simulation reflects a growing awareness of China's increasingly dominant presence in Africa and the need for the West to consider a strategic response. It plays to the popular Western concept that China's growing footprint in Africa appears "neo-colonial", barring a repetition of the West's past slave trade and military occupation. It puts a great deal of emphasis on the security perspective, particularly from a "Cold War" standpoint.
While the simulation is visually incisive, it fails to draw out the following important dimensions -
(a) After half a century of Western aid in Africa involving a trillion US dollars, there have been little development results to show for, as aid has turned out to be a perennial addiction, the problem rather than the solution. (Dambisa Moyo, Dead Aid, Why Aid is not working and how there is another way for Africa", Allen Lane, 2009). In contrast, China's unique state-driven packaged approach of some aid, but more loans and infrastructural investments including schools, hospitals, and transportation networks, which are much needed for capacity-building, has proved to be effective in driving economic development in Sub-Sahara Africa.
(b) Instead of being handed over to African countries from the start, China's African loans and investments generally stay in an escrow account in Beijing, which serves to pay Chinese construction companies on completion of the packaged infrastructual projects. This way, much of the corruption and misappropriation of funds by African dictators and their officals is minimized. (Deborah Brautigam, The Dragon's Gift-The Real Story of China in Africa, Oxford University Press, 2009)
(c) While China's African ventures do not shun dictators, they are by no means confined only to energy-abundant but authoritaruan regimes. For example, they also extend to more liberal countries like Mauritius and Botswana. So the claim that China's African investment is divisive does not appear to hold much water.
(d) By accepting the "excess labour" situation in China (and the rest of Asia) as immutable, it fails to recognise China's latest initiative to help African countries to manage (through designated Chinese enterprises) five regional Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in the vicinity of extracting operations. These SEZs remain under the host goverment's control but are designed to grow local African jobs and skills, including those manufacturing processes no longer viable in China's increasingly costly Eastern industrial seaboard.
The above dimensions are incorporated in my Paper "A New China-Africa Financial, Investment & Business Partnership: Lessons for the international aid, investment and trade architecture."Click here
Nevertheless, the Wikistrat simulation and presentation are very well structured and narrated, covering most of the salient points. On the whole, it is a handy guide to those who seek to understand the salient dynamics of China's engagement in Africa.
