Perhaps a better understanding of how Japan views her nuclear energy future may be gained from a report "The Fukushima Nuclear Accident and a Long-Term Energy Vision for Japan", dated April 2012 (Canon-Ifri Paper Series n°6, April 2012 (ifri - institut francis des relations interntionale) by the Canon Institute for Global Studies.
Download CIGS -The Fukushima Nuclear Accident and a Long-Term Energy Vision for Japan
Amongst other things, the report highlights three main trends changing the global energy situation -
"The global energy situation has been changing dramatically in the last few years. There are 3 main trends. The first is the transition among fossil fuels from oil to natural gas. As we approach peak output of crude oil, the shale gas revolution (currently centered in the U.S.) will see the abundant commercialization of natural gas extracted from shale strata deep underground that could not be extracted previously. The price of natural gas is expected to remain low in the mid- to long-term. Abundant shale gas deposits have also been discovered in China. There is a wide price differential between natural gas and liquefied natural gas, as the price of liquefied natural gas in Japan is nearly 3 times higher than the price of natural gas in the U.S. The future trend of maritime transport, which is subject to strict fuel regulations, favors a switch to natural gas."
"The second is the battery revolution. We are entering an age in which electricity is stored. This means that something akin to an industrial revolution is taking place. Sunlight and wind power, irregular forms of energy, will become available as stable sources of power, while the proliferation of technology such as smart grids will see expanded utilization of these forms of power. The competition in research and development is increasing not only for lithium-ion batteries but for next-generation batteries as well, which is becoming an opportunity for those who control batteries to control the world. Although Japan currently has the advantage, the competition with the U.S., China, and Korea will almost certainly intensify."
"Third is progress in nuclear technology. While the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant belongs to an early class of the oldest second-generation plants (reactors developed in the late 1960s), safer late third-generation nuclear reactors (called third-generation plus) are under construction in the U.S. and China. On February 8th, NRC issued the Combined Construction and Operating License (COL) for the Vogtle nuclear plant in eastern Georgia. This was the first license for new plant construction issued in 32 years after TMI.
The operation of passive safety reactors, typified by the “AP1000,” does not depend on operating personnel in the event of a power outage. Gravity provides the core with cooling water and the natural environment cools the core over a long period of time. China is already constructing over 40 plants with this type of nuclear reactor. Furthermore, development of fourth-generation reactors (to be put into use around 2030) is moving forward in the U.S., China, India, and Russia, propelling advances towards the use of sustainable nuclear energy exemplified by the fast breeding reactor."
"Bill Gates and the founder of Google are using private funding to launch the development of next-generation small- and medium-type reactors is still fresh in mind."
"On March 23, 2010, the news that Toshiba' cooperation with a company TerraPower LLC backed by Microsoft chairman Bill Gates about joint development of a nuclear reactor with the potential to run for100 years without refueling filled the front page of the NIKKEI newspaper. Nuclear News magazine reported in 2009 that Google might be interested in supporting thorium molten reactor (p 30, Volume 52, Number 10 September 2009)."
"Japan’s mid- to long-term energy vision will require an architecture consistent with the above 3 trends. It will be fundamental to spur the all-out mobilization of energy sources to secure a good balance of abundant and economical coal and natural gas, nuclear energy essential for combating global warming and reinforcing energy security, and renewable energy under development that is currently costly, inefficient and unstable. Japan’s energy technology is in a position to lead the world. It is moving towards reducing its dependence on fossil fuels from 85% to 50%. The remaining 50% should then be split between highly-efficient and clean technologies for utilizing fossil fuel (combined cycle power generation technology through natural gas and gasified coal), continually evolving and ever-safer nuclear power technology, and stabilized renewable energy technology (utilizing solar and wind power, along with ocean energy, geothermal energy, and biomass energy)."
"There is no alternative but to work towards achieving this kind of energy structure. As a technology powerhouse, Japan’s task moving forward will be to demonstrate to developing countries that a highly-developed industrial nation with manufacturing at its industrial core pursues such an energy vision."
"The field of energy is most rife with opportunities for innovation. At the same time, it can serve to help Japan contribute to the world and carry the Japanese economy as a key national industry. In light of the 3 major trends discussed above, Japan needs to overcome the current energy policy crisis while remaining conscious of its leadership and national interest."
