U.S. Public opinion on China and Foreign Policy

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, founded in 1922, is a prominent, independent and nonpartisan organization committed to influencing the discourse on global issues through contributions to opinion and policy formation, leadership dialogue, and public learning. The Council released on 10 September the results of its survey of American public opinion on U.S. foreign policy, in which more than 1,800 Americans were sampled. Click here

According to its press release -

"Fewer Americans are concerned about international terrorism as a “critical” threat to the United States than at any point since September 11, 2001. While a majority is still worried, the intensity of concern about terrorism has steadily declined. At the same time, most Americans do not credit the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan with reducing the threat".

"While Americans consider the Middle East as the greatest source of future threats, they are gradually shifting their foreign policy focus towards Asia and a rising China, viewed as important more for their economic dynamism than as a potential threat. For the first time since the Council first asked the question in 1994, a majority of Americans (52%) see Asia as more important to the United States than Europe (47%)."

The "Survey finds that the views of “Millennials”—those between the ages of 18 and 29—are shifting in a more pronounced way than those of older Americans. They see the world as less threatening, and show less concern than other age groups about international terrorism. Islamic fundamentalism, and the development of China as a world power. Millennials also favor a less activist approach to foreign policy, with a slight majority (52%) saying the United States should “stay out” of world affairs, compared to just 35 % among older age groups".

"When looking at partisan differences, the 2012 Chicago Council Survey finds that political polarization on many aspects of U.S. foreign policy is overstated. Opinions in “red” and “blue” districts overall are similar. While the parties often differ in degree, there is generally consensus among the majorities. Independents, however, distance themselves from both Republicans and Democrats. They are less likely than both to support an active U.S. role in global affairs and less likely to view U.S. leadership as “very” desirable".

Other key findings of the 2012 Chicago Council Survey include:

• Just over half (54%) support an attack by U.S. ground troops against terrorist training camps and facilities, down from 82 percent in 2002.

•  Majorities oppose the UN authorizing a strike on Iran (51% opposed), oppose a unilateral U.S. strike on Iran (70% opposed), and do not want to get involved in a potential Iran-Israel war (59% opposed).

• To deal with the crisis in Syria, majorities of Americans support diplomatic and economic sanctions (63%) as well as a no-fly zone in Syria (58%).

More specifically,

• There is a strong sense that the wars have overstretched America''s militarry and strained its economic resources for dubious gains. The public are more than ready to end this chapter of American foreign policy.

• Finding themselves in a more multipolar world and aware of domestic economic constraints and the limits of military power, Americans prefer to play a less dominant role in the world whenever possible.

• Most Americans believe that the Iraq war has worsened America's relations with the Muslim world and will not lead to the spread of democracy in the Middle East.

• Americans also continue to see the United States as the most influential country in the world today, even as this influence iis seen as decreasing relative to other countries.

• While they see American leadership as desirable, Americans clearly reject the role of the United States as a hyperpower and want to take a more cooperative stance.

• Overall, Americans view Asia as important because of its economic dynamism rather than a threat. However, they also recognize that over the longer term, Asia's - and especially China's - rise could be a negative development for the United States. The development of China is viewed by a minority (40%) and even less by Millennials (30%) as a critical threat.

• Americans are equally divided between those who say that the United States and China are mostly partners (48%) and mostly rivals (47%), the percentage of Americans saying that China is mostly partner has grown. A majority of Democrats (54%) see China as a partner while a slight majority of Republicans (51%) and Independents (53%) view China as a rival.

• Seven in ten Americans say China is more important than Japan. The same majority believe that the United States should undertake friendly cooperation and engagement with China (69%) rather than actively work to limit China's growth (28%). This majority is strong and non-partisan, consisting of Democrats (72%), Republicans (65%) and Independents (71%). 

• However, majorities of all groups think China trades unfairly (Republicans (74%), Democrats (63%) and Independents (68%).

• A majority (53%) says that the United States should put a higher priortiy on building up strong relations with traditonal allies like South Korea and Japan, even if this might diminish U.S. relations with China. However, there is a substantial and growing minority (40% up from 31% in 2010) holding the opposite view.

• While U.S. officials have recently attempted to recast America's ""Pacific pivot" as a multifaceted policy rather than solely as a military one, concern about China's ability to draw regional actors into its economic orbit along with its growing mucularity in the South China Sea is a clear motivating concern. There is a majority support (54%) for the shift of military and diplomatic resources towards Asia but with only 9% supporting it strongly and 45% "somewhat".

• Asked to name which is more important to the United States, 39% select Europe while 31% choose Asia and 29% opt for the Middle East. Democrats (54%) and Independents (56%) are more likely to favour Asia over Europe than Republicans (45%).

• 53% consider maintaining superior military power worldwide a "very important" foreign policy goal, down 14% from its peak in 2002.There is continued majority support for global American military edge but selective cuts are preferred (68%).

• More Americans are wary of getting involved in potentially high-cost foreign entanglements. In response to questions that imply unilateral rather than multilateral action, majorities (both Repulicans and Democrats) oppose using U.S. troops if China invaded Taiwan (69%, up 8 points since 2004) and if North Korea invaded South Korea (56%),

• There is no clear majority support for using U.S. troops to defend Israel if it were attacked by its neighbours; as in 2010, Americans are essentially split down the middle (50% opposed, 49% in favour). In an Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 30% support America taking the side of Israel while 65% prefer not taking either side. Democrats (78%) and Independents (69%) prefer not taking sides while a slight majority of Republicans (51%) want to take the side of Israel (an increase of 12 points over a decade).

• As a general rule, when it is necessary for the United States to use military force, 24% think it best for America to act on its own, 36% as part of NATO or other allied operation, and 38% as part of a United Nations operation.

The PEW Research Centre's Global Attitude Project, in their report dated 18 September 2012, entilted "US Public, Experts Differ on China Policies"here shows that the US public is deeply concerned about China's economic power but differs from experts as to how America should respond. Few see China as trustworthy, although the young seem relatively more trusting of China. Though most want to share leadership with China, a majority feels that the US remaining the leading superpower would make the world more stable, with the experts believing that a stong relationship with China is important.                                                      

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