In a study released on 12 November 2012, the London-based Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts that "By 2015, the number of financial service jobs in Hong Kong - which was less than half the London number in 2005 - will have overtaken the number in London and Hong Kong will be the main international financial centre in the world". Click here
Although London will always retain its many unique strengths, the surging size of the Chinese economy and the rapid internationalization of the RMB, for which Hong Kong is being honed as a global platform, are likely to add credence to the prediction of the report.
The following studies are also relevant -
(a) "Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance", Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C. This suggests that the Chinese yuan (RMB) has already eclipsed the US dollar as the world's "reference currency" and on track to becoming at least one of the world's leading reserve currencies by the mid-2030s. Click here
(b) The
latest OECD report here “Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects” dated
November 2012 suggests that “China will overtake the eurozone in 2012 and the US within the next
four years to become the largest economy in the world. By 2060 …… the combined GDP of China (27.8%)
and India (18.2%) will be larger than that of the OECD – and the total output
of China, India and the rest of the developing world (57.7%) will be greater
than that of developed OECD and non-OECD countries (42.3%)”.
By 2016-2020, China should be on track to becoming the largest economy at the centre of a global production and trading system (including the ASEAN-China free-trade area, the globe's largest by population). The country will also be home to the world's largest cohort of middle-class consumers, many of whom are outwardly mobile both physically and financially.
Provided
Hong Kong doesn't lose her plot and maintains an even keel on a broad front, riding on China's
economic and financial transformation in the coming decades, Hong Kong
should be well-positioned to capture the world's financial top spot ahead of London, New York or Singapore, not
just in financial service jobs but in the fullest sense of the word.
Hong Kong should be able to continue to count on her many blessings, including a world-class commerical infrastructure, financial depth and expertise, a free port status, a low tax regime, internationally-recognised rule of law, and uniquely, a special relationship with mainland China under the ""One Country, Two Systems" formula.
