Zachary Keck, assistant editor of The Diplomat, argues in his article of 23 March 2013 that China and Russia will form closer ties that endure than is commonly thought possible.
This is because, according to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) , China will be importing 75% of the oil it consumes by 2035. Keck points out that "Bristish Petroleum forecasts that over half of the global liquids demand growth through 2030 will come from China, at which point Beijing’s 46 Billion Cubic Feet (bcf/d) of daily gas consumption will equal the entire EU’s gas consumption in 2010." BP expects that China, along with India, will account for 94% of global net oil demand growth through 2030.
As Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on export of resources, where will it be able to find such a big and steady customer as China?
Moreover, according to Keck, the brewing idea of an U.S-EU free trade area would undercut Europe's dependence on Russian gas when America's shale gas revolution empowers it as a net gas exporter. If Russia's influence over Europe is weakened as a result, a closer relatiohsip with China may help to restore at least part of the global balance against a hostile Western bloc.
As for China, Russia's land-based energy supply would ease the Middle Kingdom's dependence on risky sea lanes dominated by American navy power and its allies, while a closer relationship with Russia would enable China to concentrate on growing her naval and other influence in the strategic Asia Pacific.
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