What's New

How to deal with North Korea's nuclear threats

As one of the panelists in a BBC live radio program World Have Your Say on 29 March 2013

(To listen to the section where I featured, put pointer on bottom of screen to reveal a soundtrack bar. Slide the button to around 1636 and start listening.)

Japan's East Asian Strategic Review 2013

The latest Review, underaken by Japan's National Institute for Defence Studies, was released on 29 March. The report shows how, in a new era of declining capability to project power globally, the United States and other powers in a new multi-polar world are responding to regional risks and the rise of a more assertive China.

In particular, the report suggest that “Recognition that China’s maritime activities on the high seas will expand in a northerly direction in the near future is a factor motivating Russia to seek cooperation with Japan and the United States.”

It also paves the way for Japan to revamp the role of a "Dynamic Defence Force" to work more closely with the United States in maintaining regional security. This is poised to project Japanese geopolitical influence more robustly in the Asia Pacific region and beyond in the coming years.

Download Japan's East Asia Strategic Review 2013 - Executive Summary

These dynamics are happening at a time when China under President Xi's leadership vows to rejuvenate the nation not only socio-economically but as a great nation with global influence, in calls for a China Dream reminiscent of China's glorious past.

At the same time, compared with her adversaries, China is historically in a better financial and economic position to contiue to modernize and build up her military defenses, particulaly naval capabilities. These are essential in safeguarding the nations's economic and other strategic interests in the Asia Pacific, including vital sea lanes for international trade and resource importation, territorial claims, security of the Taiwan strait, and access to martime resources.

Tensions over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands have already driven a wedge between China and Japan. In addition to a China-eccentric Pivot to Asia strategy, the U.S.Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan means that America has to be on the side of Japan in case of a military confrontation against China.

Risks are mounting of a first spark igniting a prairie fire in an uncontrollable conflgration that would engulf all three parties and the rest of the world. Naturally, no one is disposed to this eventuality.

Nothing short of leader-to-leader talks to install crisis-management mechanisms, implementing tension-reducing and trust-building measures and a willingness to pursue areas for cooperation instead of confrontation could help pull all parties from the brink. 

China and Russia are closer than commonly thought possible

Zachary Keck, assistant editor of The Diplomat, argues in his article of 23 March 2013 that China and Russia will form closer ties that endure than is commonly thought possible.

This is because, according to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) , China will be importing 75% of the oil it consumes by 2035. Keck points out that "Bristish Petroleum forecasts that over half of the global liquids demand growth through 2030 will come from China, at which point Beijing’s 46 Billion Cubic Feet (bcf/d) of daily gas consumption will equal the entire EU’s gas consumption in 2010." BP expects that China, along with India, will account for 94% of global net oil demand growth through 2030.

As Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on export of resources, where will it be able to find such a big and steady customer as China? 

Moreover, according to Keck, the brewing idea of an U.S-EU free trade area would undercut Europe's dependence on Russian gas when America's shale gas revolution empowers it as a net gas exporter. If Russia's influence over Europe is weakened as a result, a closer relatiohsip with China may help to restore at least part of the global balance against a hostile Western bloc.

As for China, Russia's land-based energy supply would ease the Middle Kingdom's dependence on risky sea lanes dominated by American navy power and its allies, while a closer relationship with Russia would enable China to concentrate on growing her naval and other influence in the strategic Asia Pacific.

China becomes the world's largest e-tailing marketplace

In an instructive March 2013 report, "China's e-tail revolution: Online shopping as a catalyst for growth", Mckinsey Global Institute reveals the following game-changers in China's consumer e-marketplace -

• China has the world's largest online population with 130 million residential broadband accounts
• E-tailing produced more than $190 billion in 2012 sales
• China's e-tailing industry has posted 120% compound annual growth since 2003
• More than 6 million e-merchants list products on Taobao
• Singles Day 2012 generated $4 billion in online sales, surpassing Cyber Monday in the United States

E-tailing in China still has huge potential, according to MGI -

• China's broadband penetration is only 30%
• Online sales could reach $650 billion by 2020
• By 2020, e-tailing could potentially lift China's private consumption by an additional 4-7 %
• In Tier 4 cities, the average online shopper spends 27% of disposal income through e-tailing
• E-tailing could boost labour productivity in China retail sector by 14%

Download MGI - China e-tailing Full report March 2013

The Economist (23 March, 2013) features a Leader on E-Commerce in China which shows how the king of the country's e-tailing creates The Alibaba Phenomenon

The Future Report 2012

The Report, produced by Global Futures and Foresight, a strategic futures thinl-tank, looks into global stratefic drivers in the coming decades up to 2050.

Download The Future Report 2012, Global Futures and Foresight

Where is China headed?

Live interview on Cash Flow with CNBC on 18 March, 2013 on the new Chinese leadership.

An interactive map by Reuters showing China's political power connections

Reuters has produced an interactive map purportedly showing China's intricate elite power web, connecting various policial leaders based on their background, career paths, political bondage and affiliatons. A YouTube intro on how to use this map is here.

As pointed out by John Kennedy in the South China Morning Post "Blogs" dated 8 March, 2013, the map is too detailed, too complex and too mechnical to be able to explain human relationships and political bondage where some power-brokers may be behind the scenes.

The map may provide some basic facts but its conclusions may be based on half-truths, which may well prove to be quite off the mark.

The EAGLEs and NEST will dominate world growth 2012-22

"The EAGLEs and NEST (countries) together are expected to contribute 68% to world growth between 2012-2022, led by China and India, both with a higher share than the U.S. The G7 economies will add a mere 16%", according to the following research by BBVA -

EAGLEs Outlook 2013 Report

The Role of Emerging People

For background on The Soaring EAGLEs, please click here.