The latest Review, underaken by Japan's National Institute for Defence Studies, was released on 29 March. The report shows how, in a new era of declining capability to project power globally, the United States and other powers in a new multi-polar world are responding to regional risks and the rise of a more assertive China.
In particular, the report suggest that “Recognition that China’s maritime activities on the high seas will expand in a northerly direction in the near future is a factor motivating Russia to seek cooperation with Japan and the United States.”
It also paves the way for Japan to revamp the role of a "Dynamic Defence Force" to work more closely with the United States in maintaining regional security. This is poised to project Japanese geopolitical influence more robustly in the Asia Pacific region and beyond in the coming years.
Download Japan's East Asia Strategic Review 2013 - Executive Summary
These dynamics are happening at a time when China under President Xi's leadership vows to rejuvenate the nation not only socio-economically but as a great nation with global influence, in calls for a China Dream reminiscent of China's glorious past.
At the same time, compared with her adversaries, China is historically in a better financial and economic position to contiue to modernize and build up her military defenses, particulaly naval capabilities. These are essential in safeguarding the nations's economic and other strategic interests in the Asia Pacific, including vital sea lanes for international trade and resource importation, territorial claims, security of the Taiwan strait, and access to martime resources.
Tensions over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands have already driven a wedge between China and Japan. In addition to a China-eccentric Pivot to Asia strategy, the U.S.Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan means that America has to be on the side of Japan in case of a military confrontation against China.
Risks are mounting of a first spark igniting a prairie fire in an uncontrollable conflgration that would engulf all three parties and the rest of the world. Naturally, no one is disposed to this eventuality.
Nothing short of leader-to-leader talks to install crisis-management mechanisms, implementing tension-reducing and trust-building measures and a willingness to pursue areas for cooperation instead of confrontation could help pull all parties from the brink.
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