Beyond the simplistic solution of removing Assad, Syria is a veritable proxy war for a complicated tangled web of interlocking domestic and foreign forces.
These include the Shiites v Sunni regional struggle (Iran v the Arabs); the political, if not physical survival, of the ruling Syrian Alawites; Russia's naval base in Tartus in Syria linked to its Black Sea assets and Mediterranean influence; America's desire to undermine Iran by weakening, if not breaking up, its Syria-connected power levers of Lebanon and Hizbullah; the Israeli factor and the America-Israeli alliance; regional anti-Israeli sentiments pending a genuine Palestinian statehood supported by a credible two- state solution including the West bank; Syria's territorial claim of part of the West Bank seized by Israel; the fractious rivalry amongst the Syria's rebel groups; their links with Al Qaeda trying to fish in troubled waters; Obama's unwillingness to get dragged into another Middle East war by going along with his hawkish deputies; China's concern with energy security by maintaining good relations with Iran, and indeed with Israel and all other players; both Russia and China's consistent faith in a diplomatic solution; their unwillingness to give legitimacy to a solution through military or other forms of coercion, the Right to Protect (R2P) notwithstanding; one can go on.
Until all parties are sufficiently reconciled, it seems likely that Syria will stand out like a bloody thumb or worse for a fairly long time if real politics are given a free rein.
This ought to be the job of the United Nations. If only key Members see beyond their national interests. Unfortunately, they seldom do.
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