Do democracies have the guts for diplomacy on Syria? - asked Mark Leonard in Reuters Online on 3 June, 2013. Click here
Beyond the simplistic solution of removing Assad, Syria is a veritable proxy war for a complicated tangled web of interlocking domestic and foreign forces.
These include the Shiites v Sunni regional struggle (Iran v the Arabs); the political, if not physical survival, of the ruling Syrian Alawites; Russia's naval base in Tartus in Syria linked to its Black Sea assets and Mediterranean influence; America's desire to undermine Iran by weakening, if not breaking up, its Syria-connected power levers of Lebanon and Hizbullah; the Israeli factor and the America-Israeli alliance; regional anti-Israeli sentiments pending a genuine Palestinian statehood supported by a credible two- state solution including the West bank; Syria's territorial claim of part of the West Bank seized by Israel; the fractious rivalry amongst the Syria's rebel groups; their links with Al Qaeda trying to fish in troubled waters; Obama's unwillingness to get dragged into another Middle East war by going along with his hawkish deputies; China's concern with energy security by maintaining good relations with Iran, and indeed with Israel and all other players; both Russia and China's consistent faith in a diplomatic solution; their unwillingness to give legitimacy to a solution through military or other forms of coercion, the Right to Protect (R2P) notwithstanding; one can go on.
Until all parties are sufficiently reconciled, it seems likely that Syria will stand out like a bloody thumb or worse for a fairly long time if real politics are given a free rein.
This ought to be the job of the United Nations. If only key Members see beyond their national interests. Unfortunately, they seldom do.
Beyond the simplistic solution of removing Assad, Syria is a veritable proxy war for a complicated tangled web of interlocking domestic and foreign forces.
These include the Shiites v Sunni regional struggle (Iran v the Arabs); the political, if not physical survival, of the ruling Syrian Alawites; Russia's naval base in Tartus in Syria linked to its Black Sea assets and Mediterranean influence; America's desire to undermine Iran by weakening, if not breaking up, its Syria-connected power levers of Lebanon and Hizbullah; the Israeli factor and the America-Israeli alliance; regional anti-Israeli sentiments pending a genuine Palestinian statehood supported by a credible two- state solution including the West bank; Syria's territorial claim of part of the West Bank seized by Israel; the fractious rivalry amongst the Syria's rebel groups; their links with Al Qaeda trying to fish in troubled waters; Obama's unwillingness to get dragged into another Middle East war by going along with his hawkish deputies; China's concern with energy security by maintaining good relations with Iran, and indeed with Israel and all other players; both Russia and China's consistent faith in a diplomatic solution; their unwillingness to give legitimacy to a solution through military or other forms of coercion, the Right to Protect (R2P) notwithstanding; one can go on.
Until all parties are sufficiently reconciled, it seems likely that Syria will stand out like a bloody thumb or worse for a fairly long time if real politics are given a free rein.
This ought to be the job of the United Nations. If only key Members see beyond their national interests. Unfortunately, they seldom do.
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