The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future - Petersen Institute for International Economics

This Working Paper 13-6 by Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler highlights the epochal shifts in globalization and economic power in the 21st century, in which a rising China plays an increasing powerful role. It outlines responses on regional and transcontinental lines and provokes further debates on how deepening multilateralism may serve to balance the rise of potentially hegemonic influences.

The gist of the Paper is best summarized on the Petersen Institute website, where the full Paper may be dowloaded-

"This paper describes seven salient features of trade integration in the 21st century: Trade integration has been more rapid than ever (hyperglobalization); it is dematerialized, with the growing importance of services trade; it is democratic, because openness has been embraced widely; it is criss-crossing because similar goods and investment flows now go from South to North as well as the reverse; it has witnessed the emergence of a mega-trader (China), the first since Imperial Britain; it has involved the proliferation of regional and preferential trade agreements and is on the cusp of mega-regionalism as the world's largest traders pursue such agreements with each other; and it is impeded by the continued existence of high barriers to trade in services. Going forward, the trading system will have to tackle three fundamental challenges: In developed countries, the domestic support for globalization needs to be sustained in the face of economic weakness and the reduced ability to maintain social insurance mechanisms. Second, China has become the world's largest trader and a major beneficiary of the current rules of the game. It will be called upon to shoulder more of the responsibilities of maintaining an open system. The third challenge will be to prevent the rise of mega-regionalism from leading to discrimination and becoming a source of trade conflicts. We suggest a way forward—including new areas of cooperation such as taxes—to maintain the open multilateral trading system and ensure that it benefits all countries."

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