What's New

Khodorkovsky Arrives in Germany

My live radio interview on Khodorkovsky on Business Matters with BBC World Service on 21 December, 2013. As a special guest on the program, I was also asked to comment on several other topics. Click ""Listen" on the screen and drag the pink count-down bar below to where I featured, as follows -

Khodorkovsky - from 0000 to 0605

Khodorkovsky and Blackberry/Iphone/Google - 1743 - 2255

Robotics - 3345 - 3731

Italy's new corporate tax rules - 4503-4645

$40 "blowouts" in America - 5123 - end

My December 2013 China newsletter

China's defining moment appears to have arrived. The Middle Kingdom has just launched a surprisingly wide range of ambitious reforms. The Chinese currency has overtaken the euro as the world's second most used currency for trade finance. The nation is assertively posturing a great power status in the region. 

Would China be able to transform the nation by 2020? Would China's rise re-set the world order for better or worse? How does the Chinese Communist Party work? Would China be able to overcome herculean problems of corruption, inequalities, local government debt, vested interests, ecological sustainability, and rising citizen aspirations? How would China be able to turn the economy and society around towards the middle-class and consumers? How soon would the RMB become fully convertible and how likely is it to become a leading reserve currency? Is a Golden Age of Gas, including shale gas, also descending on a urbanized China in quest of a green future?

 

These and many other challenging questions of our time may draw some food for thought in the following collections of analyses, presentations, reference materials and TV interviews.

 

China's Rise

• The inexorable tilt of China's Rise - Op-ed article published in New Insight of the South China Morning Post, dated 14 October, 2013. The original analysis with footnotes is here    
• China Dream - Reality and Repercussions - Feature articlepublished in The Global Analyst's First Anniversary October 2013 issue (pp. 34-41) 
• Will the Third Plenum deliver a transformed China by 2020? - An analysis

Geopolitics

• China's air defense zone a test case for Great Power relations - My Op-ed article in the South China Morning Post dated 10 December
• Public ouster of North Korea's No.2 is an ill omen - A commentary
• No Asian century without global amity - Op-ed article in the South China Morning Post dated 11 November 2013.
• Will China’s Rise re-set the world order? - Guest lecture at the City University Hong Kong on Wednesday 30th October, 2013
• Possible Turkish-Chinese Partnership on a Silk Road Renaissance by 2023 -  Joint article published in the Summer 2013 Turkish Policy Quarterly
• Japan and China: A Clash of Empires? - TV discussion panel on Inside Story with Aljazeera English on 3 November 2013
• China’s economic success and its ideological implications for the world order - Presentation to the Royal Commonwealth Society in Hong Kong on 18 September, 2013 
• With risks of a US default, China calls for a "de-Americanized world" - Live TV interviewson 14 October and 16 October with RT  (Russia Today of Moscow)
• The real story behind Abe and Park's strange body language - An analysis  
• What does the US government shutdown mean for China? - Live TV interview with RT on 3 October 
• Nicanagra's Canal set to marginalize the Panama Canal  - An analysis

Energy and the environment

• "Understanding China's Arctic policies" - An analysis of the think-piece dated 14 November in The Diplomat
• Shale revolution in the Golden Age of Gas -  Presentation at the Low Carbon Earth Summit 2013 in Xi'an, 26-28 September as Speaker and forum chair 
• China's choking pollution - Is there a cure? TV interview on Inside Story with Aljazeera English dated 22 October 2013  
• The Golden Age of Gas - A collection of key references    
• Enforcing China’s RMB4.5 trillion Planned Green Economy  - An analysis   

 Economy, finance and the RMB 

• The Ascent of the RMB - My full-length research paper  (5,730 words, excluding Abstract and footnotes)
• China - Grim forecasts not supported by determined push for economic transformation -  Op-ed article in the South China Morning Post of 19 August 2013  
• China: from shadow banking to full currency convertibility by 2020  -  Article in The Global Analyst, India
• A fully convertible yuan is possible by 2020, but only if reforms can succeed -  Op-ed article in the South China Morning Post on 22 July, 2013
• Pilot Shanghai Free Trade Zone (SFTZ) - It's what you don't see that counts - An analysis  
• Can China maintain growth and overcome the Middle Income Trap by 2020? An analysis
• "Winners and losers of China's slow but steadier growth"- Financial Times
• Currency War? Well, it's been going on for centuries- An analysis   
• China's mounting debt problem - Reuters Breaking News, September, 2013 
• What is next for China ? - McKinsey Insight
• Healthcare in China - entering uncharted waters  An analysis  
• Can China remain the Factory of the World? McKinsey & Co  
• The hyper-globalization of trade and its future - Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler of the Petersen Institute for International Economics 

Politics

• China may not need to give up one-party rule any time soon? An analysis  of an Intelligence Squared debate in London - A critique of the Intelligence Squared motion debate "Western liberal democracy would be wrong for China"
  
• What does Bo Xilai's harsh sentence tells us? An analysis
• Trial of Bo Xilai - what is it all about?  Live radio interview on Voice of Russia on 22 August whilst on vacation in London
• How long can the Communist Party survive in China? An analysis
• How China's leadership is tempered - A cartoon video that went viral 
• In defense of China's Communist Party  - A TED talk on Youtube by Eric X Li 

Urbanization and Green cities

• "Remagining China's Cities - Towards a sustainable urbanization" - China Dialogue 2013
• “One Bridge, Three Cities, and Half of China” - Research by Bauhinia Foundation on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge to be completed 2016 
• The world's leading eco-cities - Success Factors - A presentation at the First Annual International Conference on Emerging Industry, Shenzhen, 6-7 November, 2013 as Speaker and forum co-chair  
•  How to make a city great - McKinsey & Co     

Public ouster of North Korea's No.2 is an ill omen

A New York Times report here features a North Korean official photo showing the unceremonial expulsion during a politburo meeting of the regime's No.2, Jang Song-thaek, the revered pro-reform uncle and mentor of Kim Jong-un, the paramount leader.

The drama is an omen that a more hard-line regime dictated by military-led vested interests is taking hold in North Korea. The 30-year-old Kim cannot help but be used as a puppet.

It bodes ill for China and regional stability and is likely to scuttle however little that has been achieved in the past six-party talks on North Korea de-nuclearization.

Throw in a right-wing Abe government in Japan wanting to up the ante against China militarily with or without help from the United States, there is an explosive cocktail brewing in North East Asia.

Notwithstanding recent tensions over China's declared Air Defense Indentification Zone (ADIZ), South Korea's relations with China are relatively more benign. But naturally, South Korea would sit up and consider her own options if North Korea should implode.

This is only a curtain raiser. Let's hope the play is not a Greek tragedy.