Notwithstanding the face-off between Russia and the West over Ukraine, the possibility of a Second Cold War emerging in Europe is often dismissed on grounds of Russia's perceived economic weakness, her vulnerability to sanctions, and declining support in the global commons. In short, the premiss is that unlike the last Cold War, Russia's hard power is now no match to America's economic and financial clout, supported by military supremacy. How valid is this thinking?
First, let's draw a comparison with China. The Middle Kingdom's military, notwithstanding recent rapid modernization and expansion, remains decades behind the United States. But is this sufficient to maintain the Age of Pax Americana? The answer is no. The reason is that with a more interconnected and globalized world, warfare takes many forms and is increasingly asymmetric and localized. China's A2/AD (anti-access, area denial) capabilities comes to mind, despite America's eleven ultra-modern aircraft-carrier battle groups and extensive global outposts. If American superiority is not stopping China's power projection, why should it stop an aggressive Russia on Putin's home turf? Moreover, if push comes to shove, Russia still possesses one of the world's most destructive arsenals with continental delivery abilities.
Second, following collapse of the former USSR, Russia is admittedly only a fraction of her former Cold War self. But she is in possession of a formidable weapon - an "empire of energy supply crisscrossing Europe. (See "Pipelines of Empire" on Forbes online by no less an eminent strategic thinker than Robert D Kaplan, an advisor to the Pentagon). Click here In anticipation of possible falling European demand for Russian energy, Putin is developing a much closer, though still guarded, relationship with China, the world's largest energy consumer for many decades to come. Russia became President Xi's first overseas port of call, where the two sides agreed to triple Russian oil exports to China to 45-50 million tonnes, possibly by 2018, making China sooner or later the largest consumer of Russian oil. This insurance policy is of no avail for the current Ukraine crisis. But likewise, short of an infrastructural miracle across Europe, it seems far-fetched to claim that American shale gas could replace Russian energy in Europe anytime soon.
Third, barring immediate security threats or a world-war, for which no world power has sufficient political appetite or financial firepower, nations treasure foremost the economy with all the jobs implied. For China, her global gravitas comes from the mere fact that 126 nations around the globe have China as the largest trading partner, compared with 76 in the case of the United States. Yes, Russia is no China. It doesn't trade as much. But she can hurt economies with her vast energy supplies to Europe, at least for now.
Fourth, Russia's influence in Central Asia is unmistakable. Witness the expanding regional reach of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which Russia is a founding Member along with China. Current Members include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, with Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia, and Pakistan as Observer States; Belarus, Sri Lanka and Turkey as Dialogue States; and ASEAN, CIS states, and Turkmenistan as Guest Attendees. Moreover, the SCO has vastly widened its original scope to include trade, economic, diplomatic, cultural and military exchanges. In particular, there is a strong Islamic connection running through many of its Members at a time when Islamic influence in the world is on the ascendant. Turkey is anxious to become a full SCO member.. The strategic importance of Turkey, being a key member of NATO, goes without saying. This country connects Asia with Europe and is part of a "Larger West" conceived by Zbigniew Brzezinsky, a doyen of American foreign policy, as a key for America to maintain global balance (Strategic Vision, America and the Crisis of Global Power, Basic Books, New York, 2012)
Fifth, Russia may be weak with an aging and shrinking population. But as a vast country straddling two continents, she possesses immense wealth of natural resources, let alone territorial claims of reserves of resources in the Arctic Ocean.
Sixth, speaking of the latter, with the Canadian Northern Passage becoming more and more navigable with global warming, alternative trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific shipping routes along the northern Russian coast are likely to become viable in the coming decades. These are likley to connect the rest of Europe through the Davis Strait and the Denmark Strait on both sides of Greenland. When this eventually happens, it would buttress Russia's strategic position at the expense of traditional shipping routes (and ports) in the Asia-Pacific. (How the World Will Change with Global Warming, Trausti Valsson, University of Iceland Press, 2006).
Seventh, ideology no longer dictates outcomes. China and Russia have embraced capitalism, or at least state capitalism. Meanwhile, global gravitas has shifted from the West to the East. The G20 now counts more than the G8. According to research by BBVA, a Spanish bank, the EAGLEs (Emerging and Growth Leading Economies, including Turkey) and NEST countries (upcoming-EAGLEs) are together expected to contribute 68% to world growth between 2012-2022. China and India are each expected to contribute a higher share than the U.S. The G7 economies together will add a mere 16%. Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2050, the six EAGLEs combined economic weight, what may be called the E6, would be over two and half times more than the economies of US, Japan, United Kingdom and Germany combined. (Annual Report 2013, Economic Outlook - Eagles, BBVA, Madrid, March 2013. Click here
Eighth, Putin regards the collapse of the former USSR only as a temporary set-back. He harbors a strong ambition to restore Russia to its formal eminence, if not preeminence, given the country's sheer size, resources and cultural heritage. Putin and many Russians remain unconvinced that Russia is so broke that the country can no longer stand up to the West or for that matter for its desired place in the world order of the 21st Century. It is evident that Putin is proving to be a far more visionary global strategist compared with many of his Western peers.
The ideological and power dynamics of the past Cold War will not be replicated. But Ukraine is a lynchpin of Putin's Russian re-aggrandizement. With the West's enforced isolation of Russia, a Second Cold War is beginning to loom in the horizon.
An insider, no-holds-barred, "realist" analysis of why Ukraine is such a crucial chess-board between the West and Russia was given by Andrei Fursov, Director of Russian Studies, Moscow University, and Member of the International Academy of Sciences on 1st April, 2014. While smacking of conspiracy theories and Russian nationalist revanchism, it nevertheless exposes the plausible depth of intrique behind some of the game-changing dyamics unfolding in the rapidly changing fluidity of Ukraine.
Putin's revanchist dream is also outlined in a research paper "Ukriane Wating for May 9th" by the European Centre for Information Policy and Security (ECIPS), London in May, 2014.
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