What's New

"China gasses up for a new Golden Age"

Referring to a newly released IEA Medium Term Gas Market Report, an article in Foreign Policy highlights the following takeways -

(a) China is embracing a "Golden Age of Gas" with a vengeance, likley to account for half the increase in global demand for the rest of the decade, both through home production and more importantly through imports;

(b) The United States is unlikley to become the global dominant supplier just yet, but poised to grab about 5% of global gas trade and to disproportionally influence global gas prices through significally-lower domestic gas price levels;

(c) Europe is likely to remain reliant on Russia gas and is not about to turn things around with a "European shale gas revolution" due to offsetting declining production from traditional sources, a weak economy and infrastructural bottlenecks.

A collection of key reserach materials on the "Golden Age of Gas" can be accessed here

 

June 2014 China Newsletter

Greetings! May I first wish you a joyful and rewarding summer. 

As the world order keeps on shifting, there is much restlessness in the air. The dust is far from settled over Ukraine. The Pivot to Asia, supported by a resurgent, if revisionist, Japan, is at loggerheads with an assertive China. The waters of the East and South China Seas are becoming more turbulent with sharpening territorial disputes. 

Amidst the uncertainty, how sustainable is the China story, given the country’s enormous domestic and external challenges? What is going on behind the massive anti-corruption drive? On the currency front, is the RMB going to become fully convertible sooner than expected? Geopolitically, is a New Cold War around the corner? What is China's plan with Russia? Would the G20 be able to offer any solutions? What are the likely global trends out to 2040? 

For these and other searching questions of the day, the following materials may offer you some food for thought, perhaps to be enjoyed at the poolside during your summer break.

China story

• Reading China's Tea Leaves 2014 ( Keynote Presentation at an Institutional Investor event, the Asia TraderForum Annual Meeting at the Four Seasons Hotel, Hong Kong) 
  

• "The power struggle behind China’s corruption crackdown" - (A Reuters Report here )

• $14.5 billion of suspected ill-gotten gains seized in China's biggest corruption investigation of the century (Live TV interview on Skype with Aljazeera English Channel here )

• Ascent of the RMB - A Roadmap as at May 2014 (A report by ASIFMA (Asia Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association) )

• China's new environmental law more promising than expected (An analytical commentary )

• Are inclusive institutions the inevitable winner? (An analytical commentary)

• China's Urban Dreams and the Regional Reality  (Economic Intelligence Unit reports Click here )

• Six megatrends that drive China today, for better or worse (From a McKinsey panel discussion on The One Hour China Book. Click here) 
  

China's military

• Star War weapons: China and US in global space arms race? (TV panel discussion on Inside Story with Aljazeera English here ) 

• A reassessment of China's ballistic and nuclear deterrence capabilities (An article in The National Interest, Washington D.C.) 
  

Geopolitics

• A Rising China, India and the US - A Triangular Relationship in a Multipolar World (Feature article  in The Global Analyst, India)
  

• China and the US must avert conflict in the future by building trust now 
  (Top-story Op-ed article in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) of 21 May)

• Vietnam - Whys and wherefores over disputes with China (A CCTV Special Program (in Putongua with English subtitles))
  

• What's behind Russia's massive energy deal with China? 
  (SCMP article and live TV interview with RT) Click here

• Implications of President Xi's visit to the EU (Live TV interview with RT) 

• "Ukraine: A Prize Neither Russia Nor the West Can Afford to Win" - Brookings  (An analytical commentary)   

• A Second Cold War looms in the horizon (An analytical commentary)

• New Silk Road: China, Russia strengthen trade ties amid Western sanctions (Live TV interview with RT)

• Russia may lean on China's Union Pay system (Live interview with RT) 

• What next Ukraine? (A presentation to the EGN (Executive Global Network) Founding Chairmen's Group, Hong Kong)

• The truth about the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands (A China-centric documentary film)
  

World Outlook

• G20's Vision 2020 - Can it Revive Global Growth? (Feature article published in The Global Analyst, India)

• "China gasses up for a new Golden Age" (A medium-term outlook by the IEA on the Golden Age of Gas)

•  An Action Agenda for Sustainable Development - New MDGs needed (A report by the UN Leadership Council of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) 

• Global Strategic Trends - Out to 2040 (A report for the UK Ministry of Defense by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC)) 

Hong Kong

• How Hong Kong's political reform plan can be made more realistic (Top-story SCMP Op-ed article)

• Mainland visitor's child urination incident in Hong Kong (Live TV interview on CCTV Beijing) 
  

Cheer up and chill out

If too much serious reading gets you down, here is a repertoire of inspirational music videos  which may provide you with an uplift in spirits 

RSS feed and weblinks

All my postings are regularly uploaded under CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on my website http://www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com If you wish instant access as soon as they appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is absolutely free of charge.  My web site also includes a collection of mainstream China media and research sites underChina Links. You may therefore find it convenient to save my website link on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource.  

To enable you to read this my newsletter at leisure, it has been uploaded to my website. If you wish to share it with your colleagues and friends, you are welcome to use the newsletter's web link via Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, WeChat, Twitter or other social media devices.

Real-time consultation service

I am available for real-time consultations by telephone, Skype or video conferencing, ideal for corporate board meetings. Please email me personally at [email protected] . You may wish to text message me at my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987 to ensure speedy response. My Skype address is andrew.k.p.leung  I am also available on WeChat at Andrewkpleung and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing opportunities

Throughout the year, subject to mutual agreement, I am open to invitations for speaking engagements or visiting lectures worldwide on China in English or Putonghua. 

A business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives’ Global Network (EGN) Hong Kong, may I extend to you the opportunity of fielding a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong? This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support or that of your organization, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses. 

For background on EGN, please visit the following links -

Executives’ Global Network Click here
EGN Hong Kong Click here

Get-together in Hong Kong or London

Whenever you or your colleagues happen to be visiting Hong Kong, I would love to meet to share thoughts and ideas. Please email me at [email protected] 

Following my speaking engagement on 1-2 September on the Ascent of the RMB at Gothenburg University in Sweden, I will be staying in London through November.  If you or your colleagues would like to touch base with me or involve me in any event or discussions in London, please give me a shout. 

Courtesies

Please allow me to benefit from your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. Please feel free to share any of my papers, articles, presentations, and TV interviews with your colleagues or friends. You are welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please do not hesitate to let me know. On the other hand, if for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, please tell me to delete your name from my databank permanently.
 
Best personal regards,

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Specialist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited (Founded in London)
Brain Trust Member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, an online global strategic consultancy
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thompson Reuters
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Fellow of the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Senior Consultant, MEC International
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Member, Board of Advisors of Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN), Hong Kong
Member, Board of Advisors of The Global Analyst, India
Member, Board of Multitude Foundation, a HK-registered charitable trust
(The following until 19 May 2010, on permanent relocation back to Hong Kong)
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board Member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)

Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List

Vietnam - Whys and wherefores over disputes with China

On its Progam "International Affairs in Depth", China Central Telelvision (CCTV) aired a Special Feature "Vietnam - Whys and Wherefores" on 30 May, 2014. It attempts to elucidate  from China's perspective domestic and external factors leading to assertive confrontation against China's deployment of an oil rig near the Xisha/Paracel Islands, followed by spreading domestic riots against foreign-invested factories.

My interview appeared at two brief intervals in the latter half of the show. They can be viewed at aournd time-lapse counter reading 28:10 and 35:45 respectively.

The broadcast is in Putonghua (Mandarin) with English subtitles.