December 2014 China Newsletter

May I first offer you the best of Season's Greetings!

 

While the Obama administration has to cope with the threat of an extremist Islamic State, a revanchist and expansionist Russia, a weakened and fractured Europe and post-Mid-term political gridlock, China's economy, whilst slowing, appears reasonably on track to overtake the U.S sooner than some may predict. At the recent APEC Summit, countries were rallying around China's plan for a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), a clear rival to the U.S.-centric Trans-Pacific Partnership excluding China. When even His Holiness Pope Francis refuses to meet the Dalai Lama, you know that US global dominance is under challenge.

 

Across the pond, the European Central Bank's contemplates injecting a trillion euro to save the EU economy, expecting to join the money-printing bandwagon with the United States and Japan. Asset bubbles are now everywhere, not least an "energy bubble" with the US shale euphoria. This is being created by plummeting oil and gas prices, a weak global economy, and a quickened embrace of renewable energies by China and other major energy consumers for reasons of energy security, economic restructuring and ecological sustainability. 

 

What is the "New Normal" in China's slowing economy?Will she repeat Japan's experience of the lost decades? What is China's end-game in the South China Sea? Will South-East Asia realize economic promise under the shadow of China's growing influence?  Is China forging a new energy alliance with Russia? Will the shale gas hype financed by junk bonds spawn another financial crisis? What about the protests in Hong Kong - are we seeing the beginning of the end or just the end of the beginning?

 

I hope that the following may offer you some enjoyable food for thought during the holiday season - 

 

China

China's Economy: will it become the next Japan?  (Feature article in The Global Analyst, a global business magazine based in India)

What Xi means by the "New Normal" ? (An analysis of President Xi's speech at the APEC CEO forum)

Fourth Plenum: Rule of Law  ( Panel discussion on World Insight with Beijing's China Central Television broadcast on 26 October, 2014, with commentary )

China to launch hack-proof quantum communications network in 2016   (A report in the South China Morning Post)

China's Happiness Index near Germany and ahead of France  (A report in The Economist on a PEW survey)

IMF: China's economy now biggest in PPP terms (How size matters - a short commentary) 

 

Hong Kong

 

Hong Kong Protests:Young aspirations for a Hong Kong Dream (An across-the-board analysis)
Political leaders must steer the protests towards an achievable outcome (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post of 3 November)
Hong Kong Deadlock (Panel discussion on China Central Television (CCTV) on 20 October)

What's next for Hong Kong as it struggles to find its identity (Panel discussion on 8 October on Voice of Russia)
Hong Kong Protests: Possible Way Forward (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post on 7 October)

Hong Kong protests: What has been achieved on either side? (Live TV interview on BBC World on 6 October)

Hong Kong protests: Clash of Identities (Live interview on CCTV on 5 October) 
Hong Kong protests: there's more than meets the eye (An analysis dated 4 October)

Way forward for Hong Kong's protests and electoral reform (Live interview on BBC Radio 5 on 3 October)

CCTV News update on Hong Kong's protests as on 3 October

Hong Kong protests: What now? (TV interview on BBC World News on 29 September)

Hong Kong protests (Radio interview on BBC World Service on 29 September)
Does Beijing want to know the outcome of universal suffrage for the HKSAR Chief Executive before an election is held? (An analysis)

 

Energy and Environment

The Age of Oil may well end with a financial crisis from an "energy bubble"? (An analysis)

World Energy Outlook 2014 (A report by the International Energy Agency on 12 November)
A reality check of the US "Shale Gas Revolution" (A report of the Post-Carbon Institute in October 2014)

Can China really reach its ambitious goals for clean energy? (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post dated 29 November)
China-Russia energy pact and China’s energy dynamics (An research note for an address on 27 November at the Japanese Embassy, London)

 

US/China geopolitics

APEC rivalry is only a part of broader Sino-US relationship (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post on 17 November)
La Chine concurrence l'influence americaine (Article in French (with English translation) in Le Temp, a Swiss broadsheet dated 8 November)

 

South-East Asia

Southeast Asia at the Crossroads: Three paths to prosperity (A McKinsey Global Institute November 2014 report)
Southeast Asia 2035: A Realized Economic Promise? (A Wikistrat simulation report of October 2014)
Hightened tensions in the East and South China Seas - A Wikistrat simulation (A Wikistrat report of October 2014)   

 

Cheer up and chill out

For an uplift in spirits, you may wish to visit a repertoire of inspirational music videos . 

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on my website http://www. andrewleunginternationalconsul tants.com If you wish instant access as soon as they appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is absolutely free of charge.  

My web site also includes a collection of mainstream China media and research sites under China Links. You may find it convenient to save my website link on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource.  

To enable you to read this newsletter at leisure, it has also been uploaded to my web site here. If you wish to share it with your colleagues and friends, you are welcome to use the newsletter's web link via Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Real-time consultation service

I am available for real-time consultations by telephone, Skype or video conferencing, including corporate board meetings. Please email me personally at [email protected] .For speedy response, you may wish to text message me at my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung , WeChat at Andrewkpleung and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung 

Speaking and lecturing opportunities 

Throughout the year, subject to mutual agreement, I am open to invitations for speaking engagements or visiting lectures worldwide in English or Putonghua. 

A business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives’ Global Network (EGN) Hong Kong, may I extend to you the opportunity of fielding a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong? This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support or that of your organization, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses. 

For background on EGN, please visit the following links -

Executives’ Global Network Click here
EGN Hong Kong Click here

London summer sojourns

I had a fruitful visit in London from September to November where, aside from my various commitments, I kept company with our daughter and our first grandchild.  I will be visiting London again during summer 2015 and have accepted an invitation to speak at the Reform Club. If you wish to make use of my stay in London next year, please give me a shout at [email protected] . 

Courtesies

Please allow me to benefit from your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. Please feel free to share any of my papers, articles, presentations, and TV interviews with your colleagues or friends. You are welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please do not hesitate to let me know. On the other hand, if for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, please tell me to delete your name from my databank permanently.
 
Best personal regards,

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Specialist
www. andrewleunginternationalconsul tants.com 

Positions 

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited (Founded in London)
Brain Trust Member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, an online global strategic consultancy
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thompson Reuters
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Fellow of the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Senior Consultant, MEC International
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Member, Board of Advisors of Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN), Hong Kong
Member, Board of Advisors of The Global Analyst, India
Member, Board of Multitude Foundation, a HK-registered charitable trust
(The following until 19 May 2010, on permanent relocation back to Hong Kong)
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board Member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)

Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List