What's New

Debt-to-GDP ratio country ranking 2Q14

It has often been pointed out that China's Debt-to-GDP ratio is precariously high, approaching Japan's level. The following table by McKinsey Global Institute showing changes in debt-to-GDP ratios by countries puts China's relative position in perspective.

Download World Debt-to-GDP Ratios 

While the data show that China is among the highest in the rate of increase in indebtedness, it is, by comparison, middle-ranked in terms of the ratio.

At 217%, China ranks 22nd out of 47 countries, compared with the following countries in the top ten ranking -

1. Japan (400%)

2. Ireland (390%)

3. Singapore (382%)

4. Portugal (358%)

5. Belgium (327%)

6. Netherlands (325%)

7. Greece (317%)

8. Spain (313%)

9. Denmark (302%)

10. Sweden (290%)

It should also be borne in mind that China's economy is still growing much faster relative to Japan and all of the debt-laden countries. Moreover, a significant proportion of China's debt is going into building infrastructure for mankind's largest and fastest urbanization, which is not yet complete. This scale of urbanization is essential to turn China into a middle-class country, with long-term social, economic and political implications. 

What's Hot in 2015 Technology Trends?

A timely report by Global Futures and Foresight, a strategic futures research organization, showcases the following new technologies or ideas that are poised to challenge or change the world, the different things the world may do or how people and organizations may do things differently -

• Automation
• Quantum computing 
• Cognitive computing
• Inter-cloud 
• Software Defined Networks (SDNs) 
• Atomic GPS 
• Internet of Things (The Internet of Everything)
• Prescriptive Analytics 
• Social 
• Avatars
• Haptic Interfaces
• Instant language translation 
• Virtual Retina Display
• Imaging the mind's eye
• NextGen Virtual Reality 
• Programmable matter 
• Smart dust/Micro motes 
• 3D Printing
• Terehertz Frequency Electronics and Meta-materials
• Wireless electricity
• Rapid Threat Assessment 
• Technological changes demand an organisational response

Download Whats_hot_2015_web[1]

 

Debt and (not much) deleveraging

McKinsey Global Institute's February 2015 report points out that the whole Western world and virtually all of the developing economies are piling up debt with little or no de-leveraging, lessons of the last global financial crisis notwithstanding -

Since 2007, global debt has increased by $57 trillion, or 17%. Reducing debt would mean implausibly large GDP growth or severe austerity policies. The regulated banking sector has de-leveraged and shadow banking has receded somewhat, but non-bank credit including corporate bonds continue to surge. While households in the United States, the UK, Ireland and Spain have reduced their debts, those in most other countries carry on borrowing even more. China's total debt has quadrupled from $7 trillion in 2007 to $28 trillion by mid-2014. The alarming situation calls for careful and innovative management and turnaround, but realistic solutions appear in short supply. 

Download MGI Debt and not much deleveragingIn briefFebruary 2015

The report (Exhibit E3) shows that ranked by real economy debt-to-GDP ratio as at second quarter 2014, China ranks 22nd, much behind the United Kingdom (13th), the United States (16th), South Korea (17th), Austria (19th) and Canada (21st). China fares worse than Australia (23rd) and Germany (24th). 

For a snapshot of how China grapples with her debt problem and a slowing economy, please visit  Slowing Dragon, Worrisome for World, my feature article in the February 2015 issue of The Global Analyst, an Indian flagship global business magazine. 

Celebration of granddaughter Evelyn's Baptism

A music slide show celebrating my granddaughter Evelyn's baptism, the year of my 70th birthday, and my Ruby wedding anniversary with a dinner party held at Bistro One, Club One in Repulse Bay, Hong Kong on 31 January, 2015

Download Celebration of Evelyn's Baptism, Andrew's 70th Birthday, and Ruby Wedding Anniversary with Peggy, January, 2015(1) (Click "Run this PlugIn" to give permission for playing the video)