March 2015 China Newsletter

Greetings!

 

As we move ahead in 2015, the world seems to be witnessing more smoke and mirrors. Amid slower growth elsewhere including China, is America’s economic recovery a game changer? What is the outlook on the world in 2015 and on China following the “Two Congresses”? Does President Xi augur the demise of collective leadership? What of China’s debt and pollution problems, let alone corruption? What is China’s New Silk Road strategy all about? Is China’s Rise illusive, if not illusionary?

 

Following is some food for thought over the Easter season -

 

Economy

 

A slowing dragon facing a perfect storm (Op-ed in South China Morning Post and related commentary)

Slowing dragon, Worrisome for world (Feature article in The Global Analyst, a Hyderabad-based business magazine in India)

China will not be the next Japan (Commissioned article in Asian Affairs, an international publication)  

2015 NPC/CPPCC - Premier Li's Work Report including military expenditure (An analysis)

The simple arithmetic of China’s slower growth (A Brookings online article)

China 2015 – The Year Ahead (China Central Television CCTV panel discussion)

Outlook for Global Growth 2015 (A McKinsey forecast with commentary)

Debt-to-GDP ratio country ranking (A McKinsey Global Institute table)

Debt and (not much) de-leveraging (A McKinsey Global Institute report)

Is China's property market heading towards collapse? (A policy brief of the Petersen Institute for International Economics, Washington DC.)

 

Geopolitics

 

China's New Silk Road Strategy for a New Asia-Pacific Century (Op-ed  in South China Morning Post)

China’s New Silk Road Strategy (PowerPoint presentation to EGN Chairmen Group)

The Illusion of Chinese Power (An analysis)

 

Military

 

China’s military expenditure (Reference in 2015 NPC/CPPCC Work Report)

The most powerful militaries in the world (Business Insider ranking compiled from Fire Power, the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Washington DC)

 

Development strategy

 

2014年是 中国发展的一个历史性分水岭  (Commissioned year-ender for London BBC Chinese website)

Is President Xi trying to revive Maoist dictatorship? (An analysis)

Flourishing middle classes in the emerging world reduce global inequality (Research by BBVA, a Spanish bank)

 

Environment 

Under the Dome 穹顶之下  (A video cri de coeur on China’s air pollution that went viral)  

Energy 

 

The Age of Oil may end with a financial crisis (An analysis)

 

Hong Kong

 

Les parapluies de Hong Kong sont refermes (HK Umbrellas Now Closed – an article (in French)  in Le Temp, a Swiss broadsheet)

Hong Kong's fight for democracy must take the first step forward (A commentary)

 

Miscellaneous

 

China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC): New Agenda and New Approach? (A short note)

中小型银行的机遇与挑战  (China’s Small-and-Medium-sized banks – Opportunities and Challenges – a PowerPoint presentation)

What’s hot in 2015 technology trends? (A catalogue ) 

Cheer up and chill out

 

I recently celebrated my baby granddaughter Evelyn’s baptism in Hong Kong. Watch a music video slide show here. Also provided for your enjoyment is an expanded reportoire of inspirational music videos, nature’s best scenaries, songs, words of wisdom, and fun and humour, including a collection in Chinese.

 

RSS feed and weblinks

 

My postings are regularly uploaded under the three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on my website http://www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com If you wish instant access as soon as they appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is absolutely free of charge.   

 

My web site also includes a collection of mainstream China media and research sites under China Links. You may find it convenient to save my website link on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource.   

 

To enable you to read at leisure, this newsletter has also been uploaded to my web site here. If you wish to share it with your colleagues and friends, you are welcome to use the newsletter's web link via Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Twitter or other social media devices.

 

Real-time consultation service

 

I am available for real-time consultations by telephone, Skype or video conferencing, including corporate board meetings. Please email me personally at [email protected] 

 

For speedy response, you may wish to text message me at my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung , WeChat at Andrewkpleung and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung  

 

Speaking and lecturing opportunities  

 

Throughout the year, subject to mutual agreement, I am open to invitations for speaking engagements, visiting lectures, or delivering specially-selected electives on China as a visiting professor. I am prepared to stay up to a few weeks anywhere and will be able to use English or Putonghua as a means of instruction.

 

A business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

 

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives’ Global Network (EGN) Hong Kong, may I extend to you the opportunity of fielding a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong? This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support or that of your organization, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses. 

For background on EGN, please visit the following links -

 

Executives’ Global Network Click here

EGN Hong Kong Click here

 

London summer sojourns

 

I will be visiting London again from end-June to mid-September this year, and have accepted an invitation to speak at the Reform Club and the National Liberal Club. If you wish to make use of my summer stay in London, please give me a shout at [email protected] . 

 

Courtesies

 

Please allow me to benefit from your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. Please feel free to share any of my papers, articles, presentations, and TV interviews with your colleagues or friends. You are welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please do not hesitate to tell me how I may help. On the other hand, if for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, please ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently.
 
Best personal regards,

 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Specialist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com 

 

Positions 

 

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong)

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust Member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member 
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thompson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Fellow of the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Member, Advisory Board, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law

Member, Advisory Board, The Global Analyst, India

Member, Hong Kong Advisory Board, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School

(The following until 19 May 2010, on permanent relocation back to Hong Kong)

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board Member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)

Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List