What's New

Russia-China relations and the changing world order

My panel radio interview on Newshour and The World Tonight with BBC World Service on 24 April, 2015. 

Download Russia-China relations and the changing world order

 

Hard Choices - TOWARDS A WATER & ENERGY SECURE CHINA

A comprehensive April 2015 200-page Report of China Water Risk, a Hong Kong-based think tank, examines in detail the dilemma a water-thirty China faces in responding to pressures from food, power, growth and climate change. 

The quantum jump in China's potential power needs is breathtaking. According to the Report, 

"At 0.87kW, China’s per capita power generation installed capacity is still far below that of the G20 average. By 2050, China could add 2TW of installed capacity – this is more than the current total installed capacity of the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and Japan combined. Despite this staggering expansion, China’s per capita installed capacity will only rise to 2.6kW by 2050 which although in line with Japan’s 2.3kW/capita in 2012, is far below that of the US of 3.4kW/capita for the same year".

Globally, agriculture is the largest user of water accounting for around 70% of water withdrawals, according to the FAO. In China, this proportion is even higher due to uneven water distribution and high wastage. 

"China’s power is thirsty: 93% of its installed capacity needs water to generate electricity on a daily basis in 2013, of which industry accounts for 85%". 

"China has plans to shift its energy mix away from coal and hydro power towards less water-reliant power such as wind and solar. Water-reliant power is projected to fall from 93% to 72% by 2050. However, the magnitude of China’s power expansion means that it is still +1.2TW of water-reliant power; equivalent to 4x the total installed capacity of Japan", the Report adds. 

Hard choices lie head in balancing power mix from a water and change perspectives, for which wind, solar and nuclear appear to be winners. Nevertheless, even these green energies contain hidden water risks. Wind turbines require the input of rare earths whose production incurs water contamination risks while nuclear (along with fossil power) needs plenty of water for cooling. 

Download Towards A Water and Energy Secure China, CWR April, 2015

Resurgence of Russia and China from an Islamic perspective

The Institute for Islamic Strategic Affairs (IISA), a London-based think-tank with a trans-Islamic and global reach, issues its 2015 Annual Strategic Brief on the Resurgence of Russia and China and what it means for regional and global world order.  

The Report concludes - 

""2014 has demonstrated that the global power balance has shifted far more quickly than many had predicted, with China beginning to make significant changes to the global financial system, making its influence and presence in Asia more visible. With many Western countries now joining the Chinese led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), China’s challenge to the existing international order has clearly begun. It is therefore clear that the Sino-Russian nexus will be increasingly important in 2015 and beyond, with China moving beyond the peaceful rise of Hu Jintao and embracing a far more involved and assertive foreign policy under Xi Jinping. In the future, 2014/15 will likely be regarded as a defining point in the history of world order."

Civil War in Yemen

The following extracts from an insightful analysis by Adam Baron, a seasoned Yemen specialist, in a March 2015 Policy Memo for ECFR (European Council for Foreign Relations), a Brussels-based think-tank, captures the heart of a complex web of rising conflicts between various Yemeni factions as well as their foreign backers.

"Houthis hold the north but hegemony has yet to set in in the bulk of the country. The centre is contested between the rebels and forces deeply opposed to their control, and the south provides a theatre for the various tensions between Houthi expansion, general popular unrest, and Hadi’s attempt to reassert his legitimacy. And even areas to the south of Sanaa where the Houthis have worked to consolidate their power remain far from calm, as resentment and anxiety builds in many parts of the country."

"While there are reportedly divisions in the Saudi royal family, the Saudis and other Gulf Arabs largely view the Houthis as spectres of Iranian encirclement, casting them as a key potential threat to their sovereignty and security. This framework of the conflict in Yemen as a front in a regional battle between Sunni Arab states and Shi’a Iran, while an oversimplification, is increasingly adopted by the Gulf states’ partners within the Sunni-majority country."

".....with the return of key secessionist exiles close to Saudi Arabia, it appears that the Gulf states are treating the secession of the south as a back-up plan, using longstanding relationships to groom a potential leadership."

"If Yemen continues to fracture along regional lines, full-on GCC support for a bid for independence in the south is well within the realm of possibilities."

"But while the Gulf states’ focus on the Houthis’ ties with Iran may be somewhat misplaced, there is little question that a Houthi-ruled or Houthi-influenced Yemen will see the centre of gravity shift towards Iran at the expense of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states."

".... it appears that Iran aims to have a friendly government in Sanaa, albeit not one that is necessarily hostile to Saudi Arabia. And while hardliners within the Iranian government have heaped praise upon the Houthis’ takeover of Sanaa, many have argued that Tehran has ultimately been pleasantly surprised by the extent and speed of the group’s gains."

"The Houthis’ public moves towards Russia and China would appear to underline the shift away from the United States. Former president Hadi’s closest ally, perhaps, was Washington, which saw the government as a key partner in the battle against the Yemen-based AQAP."(al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula) 

"Finally, fears over the potential blockage of the strategic Babel-Mandeb strait, an oil transit chokepoint where the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean meet, have led to increasingly bellicose rhetoric from Egypt. Many have expressed worries that the Houthi rebels could directly seize control of the Yemeni side  of the strait, and Egyptian officials, most notably the head of the Suez Canal Authority, have explicitly threatened to intervene militarily in Yemen if the strait is blocked."

"European policy in Yemen has often been stifled by key players’ mixed priorities: Germany has maintained a focus on economic development, France has been perceived as focusing on its economic interests in the country, while the UK has focused on political matters and a security agenda that dovetails closer to that of the US than any other partner. Still, despite the challenges represented by these divisions, collective action can allow European nations to potentially shape Yemen’s political path for the better."

"It is worth noting that, among EU states, Germany’s ties with the Houthis do present a unique opportunity for reaching out to the group; Abdulmalek al-Houthi’s brother, Yahya, was granted asylum in Germany and lived there until returning from exile in 2013. Simultaneously, the UK continues to be looked upon positively by most key southern factions, maintaining many relationships dating back to its presence in Aden. London has assumed a leadership role through chairing the “Friends of Yemen”, a grouping of international donors."

"Regardless of anxieties regarding Iran’s increased role in Yemen, simply condemning its influence is far from likely to spur constructive engagement from Tehran while appearing to confirm perceptions that the West is irredeemably biased towards the Gulf states. The EU is in a position to constructively engage with Tehran and try to pursuade the Iranian government to help push the Houthis towards meaningful talks and a power-sharing agreement."

"Thus, European powers must stand firm on the necessity of an inclusive government for Yemen and press (and reassure) their Gulf allies on the point. If war and fragmentation can be avoided, then Europe will also quickly and meaningfully have to invest in securing the peace by helping Yemen address the root of the country’s problems and its next greatest challenge: its moribund economy."

It is clear that the civil war in Yemen, a failed state with a broken economy and society, is as much about factional rivalries as about geopolitical calculations behind foreign levers of power, including Sunni-Shia mistrust, the fight against al-Qaeda, regional security and long-term super-power interests.